The Second Sino-Indian War

Chinese intrusions on the Bhutanese border have led to small-scale standoff between China and India. India recently sent 6,000 troops to the disputed region in Sikkim near where intrusions have been taking place. China's incursions into Bhutan and aggressive behavior near the border with India have also been raising alarms, leading to a high-level meeting between India's External Affairs Minister and top defense officials. India's position in the eastern region has been inadequate, leaving the region open to instability.

Of particular worry to India is Chinese movement towards the Siliguri corridor, which is a vital point connecting India's northeast with the rest of the country. China has been increasingly aggressive near Sikkim, which was considered an independent state by China until 2003, also near the corridor and part of a long-standing border dispute between the two countries. Should China push through and take the small Siliguri corridor, only about 25 miles wide, it would leave India's northeast cut off by land. The region hosts several insurgent groups opposed to India's government.

India's domestic situation is also in question. While current run by the Congress Party, which wants to maintain ties with China, the leading opposition BJP, a Hindu nationalist party, believes the government is being too soft and ignoring the Chinese threat. Most notably indications are that the BJP could see a return to power in government with the recent announcement that their candidate for Prime Minister will be LK Advani. Advani is seen as the man who brought the BJP to power before and he may be able to do it again. While elections are currently set 2009 it's believed there could be snap polls soon now that Congress's ally, the Left Front is looking to abandon them and form a third force in the political sphere.

Should elections be held in 2008 it would become a battle between the three groups and if the Left is able to rally significant support by uniting their efforts, they could bring down the Congress enough to usher the BJP to power. This would not only mean a deterioration in relations with China, but could mean expanded conflict in other spheres. Nepal is the most likely flashpoint for the two countries.

While Nepal has many potential flashpoints stewing under the surface, the one bubbling up most right now is the conflict in Madhesh or Terai. Recently several groups pushing Madesh to be recognized as an autonomous region have united their efforts and are planning to launch a "peaceful" agitation against the government of Nepal beginning December 30th. Leaders have called from the arms groups to join this peaceful movement and lay down their arms. This is all taking place alongside an unstable situation in the Terai region resulting in a security crackdown in the area.

The situation has devolved even further with several members of the government resigning in protest, calling for Madhesh to be given autonomous status and planning on forming a united Madhesi political party. While all claims are coming that this is aimed at "peaceful agitation" the result may completely different, especially if the current government moves to halt the movement for autonomy.

Madhesh's push for autonomy is, however, serving to unite the Nepali government together after a deal was reached on setting up a republic and holding elections, now scheduled for April next year. Maoist leader Prachanda and several other Left parties have been joining with Nepali Congress to oppose the moves by Madhesi members of government, attempting to keep them from causing any instability in Terai region. Many nationalist members of the government in all parties are uniting together to oppose the moves in Terai and are even accusing India and the King of Nepal of instigating the instability in the region and attempting to "disintegrate" Nepal.

Nationalists are, according to Prakash Koraila, uniting against India and siding with China. They see China as supporting their territorial integrity, while India is seeking to tear their country apart. Koraila stated that he believe China would not allow India to disintegrate China. A Hindu nationalist government in India would oppose establishing a republican government and support a Madhesh movement that wants to make Hindi a national language. Such a government would further stoke tensions in Nepal and increase frustrations with India, as well as creating greater tension with China.

Awaking the nationalists, however, may not be an entirely good thing as some may favor a push to reject the Sugauli Treaty and restore Nepal to its previous borders establishing a Greater Nepal. Any attempt at taking territory from India and merging it with Nepal is likely to incite India and China rushing into Nepal to prevent this may even bring out the British, who have long-standing ties with Nepali Ghurkas and would object to any conflict in the country starting the first major conflict between the British and Chinese since the Opium Wars.