The Confrontational Hotbed Known as Nepal

Nepal is expected to push a final vote today in their interim parliament on whether to abolish the monarchy and have a proportional voting system. This is key to meeting demands from the Nepalese Maoists who withdrew from the government in September, resulting in the suspension of elections to the Constituent Assembly, which is intended to form a new government.

This struggle is just one of many ongoing conflicts in Nepal, which is of incredible importance to the two big powers in the region, India and China. Dangers with this particular move are tenfold. Not only have the Maoists threatened to instigate a "people's revolt" to overturn the government should their demands not be met, if they are met the military may use force to keep Nepal's King Gyanendra in power. Nepal declaring itself a secular republic has also raised the threat of a Hindu revolt to restore Hinduism as the state religion.

In the parliament chances of it being passed have been seriously questioned as, even with support of the other Communist parties in Nepal there would have to be a defection from the Nepali Congress party to secure passage because the vote needs a two-thirds majority. However, given the Nepali Congress being composed of two recently reunified parties, it's possible those members once part of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) party could defect and vote for the Maoist proposals. The former leader of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) party Sher Bahadur Deuba was twice deposed by the Nepalese king, which may make him and his faction more willing to vote for the Maoists proposal.

However, this could cause serious problems for Nepal as some in India have raised the possibility of sending in their military to stabilize the situation. These remarks by an ex-Indian army officer and the BJP have brought on harsh remarks from the Communist parties in Nepal. The Chief of the Maoists international affairs has warned this puts Nepal's nationalism "under threat". While India has come out and said there are no plans to go into Nepal, this could change should instability grow.

It is not just Nepal's change to a secular republic that has the potential for conflict as there are far grander complications in the country. One of the other conflicts that could emerge is in Madhesh, where people believe they are discriminated and have called for everything from autonomy to outright independence. Recently a Madheshi minister called for the uniting of all Madheshi groups into a single front so as to better achieve their goals. Should such a unified movement be formed and make any serious push towards autonomy or independence it could lead to a conflict with the Nepalese government.

There is still yet another brewing potential conflict in Nepal, but it's not a conflict that could happen in Nepal, but ultimately may come from Nepal. This is the issue of Bhutanese refugees currently in Nepal. The refugees in Nepal wish to return to their homeland of Bhutan in time to participate in elections in the country. Bhutanese Refugees in Nepal are mainly people who participated in a massive pro-democracy protest in their home country in 1990. Since then, though, they've been living in Nepal with Bhutan refusing to accept their return.

While the United States and other countries have offered up resettlement as a possibility for the refugees, some of the refugee leaders have allegedly made death threats anyone seeking to resettle, desiring only to be returned to Bhutan. These leaders have reffered to those favoring resettlement as "agents of America" and it's believe several refugee leaders favoring resettlement were killed as part of this campaign. Refugee leaders behind this campaign reveal a troubling factor in this situation. Most of the leaders pushing against resettlement are members of the Bhutanese Maoist party, heavily influence and supported by the Nepali Maoists. Bhutanese Maoists have made frequent efforts at crossing through Nepal and India to reach Bhutan and some may have made it back and are part of a small-scale insurgency there.

With the Bhutanese refugee issue there arises the potential for a major conflict emerging out of Nepal and manifesting in Bhutan. Should these groups be allowed to return to Bhutan it's possible they'll engage in a major insurgency against the Bhutanese government like the Nepali Maoists did before. Bhutan has been a long-time ally of India and is effectively a protectorate of India. A massive Maoist uprising in Bhutan could bring about Indian intervention in the country. If Bhutan fails to accept the refugees, they could decide to try and push out of Nepal and into Bhutan, ultimately bringing them into conflict with the Nepalese army and possibly India's army.

All of these factors in Nepal are worrisome as India, the United Kingdom, and Singapore all have have Gurkha soldiers serving in their armies, who are recruited from Nepal. Should massive instability disrupt the situation in Nepal it could lead to intervention, not only by India, but also the British. India's possible intervention is made even more possible by accusations the Nepalese Maoists are facilitating Islamist and Naxalite violence in India itself as well as helping Pakistan infiltrate Islamic terrorists into India.

There is also potential for Chinese intervention in the region. Nepal has traditionally served as an escape route for Tibetan refugees trying to escape Chinese rule or simply wishing to see the Dalai Lama in India. Nepal's Maoists have recently reported what they believe to be a plot by the Dalai Lama to launch a secessionist campaign aimed at distracting China while India and the U.S. intervene in Nepal. Though, alleged ties between the Maoists and China are discussed frequently the Maoist attacks against the Dalai Lama may be an attempt at currying favor with the Chinese government.

This is coming at a time when China has reportedly made an intrusion over Bhutan's border, which has aroused concern with India's government. This also coincides with China calling for India to remove bunkers it says are on their side of the line of Control in Sikkim. The Indian province of Sikkim is part of a border dispute with China and is also between Nepal and Bhutan. India on the other hand claims China frequently crosses the line of control and has raised concerns about an increasing Chinese military presence near India.

Any serious conflagration in Nepal or from the return of refugees in Nepal could set China and India on a collision course that could even leave the British in the crossfire. However, given China's importance with regards to North Korea and trade, the possibility of American intervention in any possibly conflict may be low, with the U.S. forced to stand by as its allies come to blows with the rising power of China.

The potential blow back from such a conflict could turn out to be immeasurable.