Since the crippling defeat the DPP has been in a political crisis. Frank Hsieh having been the chairman of the DPP has withdrawn from his post effective upon the appointment of a new chairman on May 18th leading to disputes within the party. In particular there's a battle going on between various factions within the party and a battle of new guard versus old with several going after Chen Shui-bian among others. Even Frank Hsieh has come out to criticize Chen Shui-bian, blaming him for the huge losses and condemning him for hypocrisy on corruption. Hsieh and other voices within the party are calling for a re-evaluation of the party's pro-independence line. If a compromise on all these issues is not agreed to it is likely the party will become deeply divided and may even split completely.
Of particular danger to the DPP is the slew of court cases against senior leaders. Ma Ying-jeou managed to avoid a conviction over corruption charges prior to the election, but the DPP may not be as lucky. Several major officials, among them Vice President Annette Lu and Frank Hsieh, who faces a host of charges. With the party torn by corruption scandals, infighting, and a major electoral defeat they have enough reasons to worry about their future political survival.
For pro-independence forces in the party the overwhelming victory of the KMT is beyond dangerous. During the campaign Chen Shui-bian and Hsieh drew parallels between Taiwan and the recent events in Tibet. They also painted a vote for Ma as akin to a vote for surrender to China and accused Ma, who had held a U.S. green card, of being disloyal to Taiwan. All of this was intended to paint the election as a life or death situation which could lead to the destruction of Taiwan or at least the loss of its independence.
Following the victory of the KMT there was immediate talk of expanded ties with China including daily direct flights between Taiwan and the mainland, the creation of a common market, and, the biggest prize of all, a peace agreement with China. However, the DPP has rejected deepening ties with China as they fear it will only end with the loss of Taiwanese independence.
It is of some note then that recently pro-independence news sites and members of the DPP have begun playing up fears about the incoming KMT administration. Of some note is a recent article which argued an attack by China on Taiwan is likely after Ma Ying-jeou takes office. The argument seems to be that Ma will not have fully organized by then and he won't be strong enough in favor of reunification. As such the author of the article says an attack on Taiwan is likely after Ma takes office. A trip by the Vice President-elect to China also led to criticism as some DPP members said the Chinese government used it as a propaganda tool to promote reunification and treated Taiwan like a province. Another article accused the KMT of scheming together with the U.S. and China to prevent independence and make Taiwan a dependent regime.
Such scaremongering also comes in light of apparent difficulties in the transitional phase between Chen's administration and Ma's. Ma has been playing up the idea of negotiations on the basis of the 1992 consensus where China and Taiwan agree there is one China but with different interpretations. However, following discussions with the Chen administration it was reported Chen and Ma could not come to an agreement on what the consensus meant or if it even existed. Chen condemned all of Ma's proposed policies declaring China wasn't to be trusted and dealing with the 1992 consensus could lead to Taiwan falling into the "one China" trap.
So what measure could be taken to prevent what Chen and others in the DPP consider a possible trap to end the sovereignty of Taiwan? It's possible Chen has already let slip a possible course of action when in talking about proposals to resolve a dispute of the management of elections he mentioned the possibility of declaring martial law. While he ultimately stepped back from that statement the fact this was proposed to him and he even considered the possibility leads one to wonder if this is how he intends to prevent Taiwan from "falling into the 'one China' trap". Following the election Chen deflected rumors that there was a plan to impose martial law or prevent the entrance of the KMT government insisting he was dedicated to a peaceful transition.
However there have already been accusations and word of hindrances being made to the transition. One potential problem is the planned mass resignation of the government before an agreement can be reached on Ma's administration. Not only that but the shifting of diplomatic personnel indicates Chen is trying to improve the DPP's standing in foreign policy. The end result of the combined efforts would be an obstruction of the incoming KMT administration. What's more having the government under the control of the Cabinet Secretary-General in the interim period could ease the imposition of a martial law situation. If there is still no agreement on how to form the new government and other issues remain outstanding it's possible then a martial law situation will arise.
On this note it might be of interest that Frank Hsieh has called for the formation of a shadow cabinet following his resignation, which would be the first time such a measure has been taking by a losing party since elections started in Taiwan. Hsieh's shadow cabinet is likely to include officials resigning from their posts around the same time and as this would take place before the transition of power there remains the possibility of Chen declaring martial law and having the Cabinet Secretary-General make the shadow cabinet an interim government. One potential justification for a declaration of martial law would be an ongoing investigation into the Taiwan Goal controversy. The controversy involved a private corporation secretly established by Chen's administration to use public funds to make arms purchases for Taiwan. KMT lawmakers have accused the DPP of launching a "green terror" prior to the transfer of power by trying to force journalists to reveal their sources for the story. Taiwan's Defense Minister refused to comment on whether lawmakers could be investigated as well.
Chen himself has a very strong reason to stay on as President as it is widely reported he will immediately be indicted and tried for corruption after he leaves office. It would also not be the first possible action by Chen to preserve himself in power through illegal means. The attempted assassination which is widely believed to have handed him a narrow victory in Taiwan's 2004 elections was suspected of actually being a staged event to keep himself in power. While the official investigation has not verified this claim, if it's true it would not be a stretch for Chen to preserve his place in power by declaring martial law. In fact the corruption charges likely to be made against him and much of the DPP leadership along with what could end as the dissolution of the party provide plenty of reasons for preventing the KMT from taking complete control of the government. Indeed not even the CCP has a three-fourths majority. The disintegration of the DPP could be the onset of a de-facto one-party state under the KMT, blocking such an action might be the ultimate justification for preventing Ma's accession and preserving Chen's position as President.
The incentive for Chen to declare martial law and block the results of the elections is overwhelming as one prosecution official has said, "We will indict Chen after he leaves office unless other factors or barriers intervene first."
In the end such an action, if carried out would only invite the military reaction of China and completely eliminate Chen's Western support. The only way to prevent an attack would be the declaration of a nuclear deterrent. On this it is interesting that several years ago Taiwanese lawmaker accused Chen of developing a nuclear weapon. Reports in Chinese media later speculated that Taiwan had already restarted its nuclear weapons program in secret under President Lee Teng-Hui around 1996 based on comment from several Taiwanese officials.
While questionable these reports should not be automatically dismissed as Taiwan had a long-standing nuclear weapons program and their membership in Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" initiative. Under that program it's believed enough weapons-grade uranium for 1,000 nuclear weapons was sent to 43 countries. The fact Taiwan purchased a reactor from Canada that also had contributed significantly lead to India and Pakistan's successful nuclear weapons program and also unsuccessful programs launched in Argentina and South Korea there is reason to wonder how far Taiwan progressed. It's possible Taiwan already acquired weapons-grade material needed for a bomb and given a case last year of over a dozen pounds of weapons-grade uranium going missing in China it is not inconceivable for Taiwan to attain nuclear material today.
A very recent report which raised concerns was the accidental delivery of four nuclear missile fuses two years ago. Apparently the fuses had only been returned the week prior to the report. Two years could be sufficient time for Taiwan to have studied and been able to copy the technology there and possible incorporate into an unknown nuclear program. One serious question is how could such a mistake happen and some are asserting it was intentional. This is indeed a possibility. The United States military has taken a decisive turn towards positive cooperation with China rather than treating them as an enemy treating them as a partner. It's almost certain this is not supported by all voices in the military, some of whom may wish to see the U.S. more forcefully backing Taiwan. Such sympathies could be played to in order for Taiwan to attain some needed nuclear material.
A declaration of martial law by Chen Shui-bian to prevent unification with China would lead inexorably to a conflict with China and without being able to count on American support. As such Taiwan's only possible counter would be the development of nuclear capabilities to counter-act China's overwhelming military power. However, if such a step is taken it likely means the ultimate demise of the Taiwanese independence movement.
