Tensions escalate in the South Caucasus and the Middle East

A clash between Armenian and Azeri soldiers in the area of Nagorno-Karabakh that left four Armenian soldiers and one Azeri soldier dead took place on June 18 as the worst in a rising number of incidents along the front. The attack took place after a meeting to discuss the disputed region seemed to lead to Azeri President Ilham Aliyev leaving in apparent frustration over the situation. Hundreds of incidents have apparently occurred since then with another Azeri soldier being killed on June 21st. While both sides have accused the other of initiating the clash it seems the incident is a consequence of Azerbaijan failing to modify the Madrid Principles on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in its favor.

In the recent past Azerbaijan has warned that if it does not see a change in the stalemate, specifically one that would be more accommodating to the Azeri position, that they would resort to the use of force. Since the clash a number of comments from Azerbaijan suggest the escalation on the front is intended to provide a pretext for Azerbaijan to retake Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev has reportedly said he is sure Karabakh would be "liberated" soon and Azerbaijan's foreign minister warned the attacks would continue until Baku regain control over the territory.

Other events in the region could signal an international element to this potential conflict. Iran has recently raised fears of war along its border with Azerbaijan in response to an alleged build-up of U.S. and Israeli military power in the country. This is believed by Iran to be preparations for an airstrike against Iran by the U.S. and Israel. However, it is possible the U.S. and Israeli forces are responding to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Both countries have strong ties with Azerbaijan while Armenia is aligned with Russia. The Iranian buildup does present another potential international actor, however, as it has begun massing forces in response to this alleged buildup by the United States. Iran has more established ties with Armenia and has made threats in the past towards Azerbaijan, especially in light of the potentially secessionist Azeri population in Northwestern Iran.

As the situation in the Middle East approaches the point of war, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could provide a trigger or even another front in such a war. Such developments in the Middle East would help to distract the world community from the situation in the South Caucasus. Even further should these events coincide Russia and Iran could exchange places with Iran providing support to the Armenians and Russia giving Iran an umbrella of protection from Israeli nuclear attack or any U.S. invasion.

Israel and the United States building up for Iran strike

Only two weeks after a report Israel was arranging for a nuclear-armed Dolphin-class submarine to remain off Iranian shores at all times comes another saying Saudi Arabia has conducted exercises to insure Israeli aircraft attacking Iran will not be intercepted by Saudi fighters. Though there are no indications Saudi Arabia would directly take part in a strike on Iran it would inevitably be drawn into the conflict as a result of its assistance for Israel.

At the same time as these developments concerning Israel are others concerning the U.S. Navy movements in the region. A Carrier Strike Group headed by the U.S.S. Harry Turman is being deployed to the Persian Gulf for six months. Most notably this Strike Group currently includes a German air defense frigate to improve interoperability of the two navies. The Truman Strike Group was also taking part in interopability exercises with the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and elements of the British air force.

This deployment for the Strike Group is reportedly part of a larger buildup planned in the region with the possibility of four or five carrier groups deployed near Iran by the end of July or beginning of August. The interoperability exercises and Israel's actions raise the prospect of a coalition unlike the one formed for the war with Iraq.

U.S.-French operations were intended to allow for the French and Americans personnel and aircraft to essentially be interchangeable. The fact a carrier group so involved in interoperability exercises with the great military powers of Europe is being deployed to the shores off Iran at this crucial point in time lends credence to the reports of a buildup.

Israel's seizure of a flotilla of ships carrying aid to Gaza has heightened concerns about war erupting in the region with both Turkey and Iran talking about providing military escorts to future aid efforts. In the case of Iran two Iranian Red Crescent ships are preparing to deliver aid to Gaza and plan to have volunteers from Iranian marines on board as a deterrent. Israel has stated it will use greater force in the future against other aid missions. If this effort by Iran goes forward it could provide them a casus belli to pre-empt any efforts by the West towards launching a coordinated strike against its nuclear facilities.