Sunday, July 5, 2009

Middle East tensions rising

Numerous reports are coming out that could signal an attack on Iran by Israel is impending. One major road block to Israeli action on Iran has been receiving approval from the U.S. and other nations to carry out such an attack. In June the first sign of such approval came with reports an Israeli sub was allowed to transit the Suez Canal by Egypt. The Israeli Dolphin class sub is capable of launching Harpoon cruise missiles with a nearly 200 mile range. It is also capable of launching nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. Being able to move these subs to the Persian Gulf through the Suez would allow Israel additional options for an attack on Iran including launching sabotage operations with special forces.

Further evidence that Israel could get support in an attack on Iran came from reports that Saudi Arabia has essentially opened up their airspace to the Israeli Air Force for an attack on Iran. Israel has denied such an agreement has been reached though Israeli sources had been reporting of high-level negotations with Saudi leaders. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden made a more public statement saying the U.S. would not stand in Israel's way and that the country has a sovereign right to launch an attack on Iran.

Possible justification for an attack on Iran could come before a strike with Iranian officials saying they are set to seize land held by the British embassy. The UK has threatened to seize similar Iranian property in its country if Iran follows through with its threat. Such actions run the risk of escalating tensions and providing cover for military attacks against Iran.

Any way will ultimately involve Hezbollah and Prime Minister Netanyahu has reiterated that any attack by Hezbollah will be the responsbility of Lebanon with the subsequent consequences. However, Hezbollah has considerably improved its military capabilities since the war in 2006. Presently they are reported to be capable of launching 600 rockets a day for 60 days with a goal of 1,000 rockets a day. Much of their new arsenal is said to be longer range rockets and missile meaning a sustained bombardment of Tel Aviv is likely in the event of war. Hezbollah is also claimed to have builts it force up to 8,000 men with fortified garrisons and a compact defense system of artillery, anti-armor, and intelligence capabilities. Together with Syrian and Hamas weapons this would allow Iran to damage Israel considerably more than Israel could harm Iran by itself. Support from the United States will be crucial for Israel or else it may be forced to resort to extreme measures.