Russia in a Middle Eastern War

A recent report by Asia Times has jitters down the spines of its readers by claiming that Russia has declared an attack on Iran to be an attack on Russia.

In the wake of Turkey's Foreign Minister visiting Iran after rejecting Iraqi proposals on the PKK with speculation they may reach an agreement to invade Northern Iraq together, such a report is sure to be even more disturbing. If Turkey bring Iran on board with an invasion it could lead to strikes against Iran and should Russia consider it an attack on Russia, it could start a world war.

However, Iran's Press TV subsequent reporting of this story changes the danger slightly:

According to a high-level diplomatic source in Tehran, the Supreme Leader and the Russian president essentially agreed that an American attack on Iran would be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

What "essential" means in this context is of dire importance. This is, after all, not the first time a Russian president ha made such threats as Boris Yeltsin made similar threats over the Kosovo War. However, ultimately what happened was more pressure than conflict with Russian peace-keepers rushing to Kosovo and nearly coming into conflict with NATO forces, but cooler heads prevailing.

While Putin has compared the missile defense plans to the Cuban Missile Crisis it may actually be more apt to use the comparison with Iran. It is unlikely Putin or Bush have the stomach for a major war and Bush has shown his own reluctance to attacking Iran by imposing sanctions on Iran without using the controversial terrorist designation, which could be de-facto authorization for war, despite bi-partisan support for such a move in the Senate. So the prospect of Bush going to war with Russia are even more slim and it's unlikely Putin is willing to go to war either.

However, should there be a strike on Iran Russia may make several threats and moves:

1. Threaten against an invasion - Russia may threaten the United States with war should they invade Iran. This would be a likely step and one that would not be too risky as not even the most radical American planners intend to invade. Also, the threat would likely cause the U.S. to recede a little from major strikes for fear of inciting Russia. However, further steps may be needed to back up this threat.

2. Send military forces into Iran - Iran could request or authorize Russian troops to be deployed into Iran, possibly using the defense of Bushehr as a justification and allow the Russian air force to use Iranian airspace. Russia would then have a potent deterrent to further attacks by having Russian fighters patrol the skies. The U.S., knowing a miscalculation could result in a world war, would be forced to reduce its actions to strategic strikes with cruise missiles and stealth bombers. These forces would only be deployed in defensive positions, to reinforce they're not intended to attack any country but to protect Iran.

3. Beef up patrols near U.S. territory - Already Russia is conducting regular patrols near NATO airspace. By increasing the number and size of patrols as well as being more aggressive in their patrols by sending out fighters and getting closer to NATO airspace or even violating their airspace the U.S. would be given a distinct warning that Russia is serious about blocking any further aggression against Iran.

4. Threaten conflict elsewhere - With Kosovo's independence inevitable Putin could roll out the threat of recognition in Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh to put the U.S. further on the defensive by making it clear Russia would seek to resolve these frozen conflicts by force if the U.S. launches further attacks in Iran. While Russia is likely to do this anyway later they could build up troops on the borders of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and build up its naval presence in the Black Sea. The benefit of this mainly being they could be used should there be an actual need for them after Kosovo declares its independence.

5. Put military forces, including nuclear forces, on high alert - By putting its military forces on high alert the U.S. would know how serious Russia is about preventing further attacks on Iran. The bringing to alert of its nuclear forces would drastically increase the pressure on the United States and convince it to stop attacking the country, shifting to naval conflicts and air battles outside Iranian territory.

All or some of these methods could be used to prevent the U.S. from launching an attack on Iran without igniting a war. However, this would also ruin Russian relations with the U.S. and effectively make Russia the guarantor of Iran's security against the United States, paving the way for a contest of wills between the two great powers in the Middle East with Iran and Saudi Arabia serving as their major proxies in a regional cold war.

Exactly the kind of powder keg that needs nothing more than a bullet to set it off.

A Turkish Invasion and a United Iraq

Turkey has gotten another promise on the PKK from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Not only is Maliki promising to go after the PKK his government and the U.S. may be willing to let Turkey invade. This report comes from the Today's Zaman which says:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rica has requested three days from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to allow the withdrawal of US troops from northern Iraq to prevent a possible confrontation of Turkish and US troops in the event Turkey starts an incursion into northern Iraq to strike against bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorist organization, a Turkish official said.

The official, who wished to remain anonymous, also said the US will urge the central Iraqi government and the regional authority in northern Iraq not to oppose a likely cross-border operation by Turkey. The same source added that there is no plan to deliver PKK leaders to Turkey. However, the US could turn a blind eye to Turkey's operations, the source said.

The fact security was turned over to Northern Iraq at the same time Turkey was creating tensions is likely no coincidence. It's also not surprising that Maliki would allow a Turkish invasion when he was prepared to sign an agreement to that effect in September. However, it didn't go through due to the objections of the Kurds.

Should Turkey decide to invade and Maliki and the U.S. step aside it could create a serious challenge to U.S. presence in Iraq and Maliki's control of the government. Maliki's government has suffered numerous defections from the Sadrists, Iraqi List and Sunnis. Now Maliki's main source of power comes from the Kurds. If Maliki agrees to a Turkish invasion it is likely that the Kurdish Alliance will withdraw their support to Maliki or at least Barzani's KDP. After that Maliki's removal will be all but inevitable and a new unity government would be formed opposed to all foreign intervention.

Ground work for such an alliance is already being laid down. As I noted in a previous post, al-Sadr has built up his support among Sunni tribal leaders and extended his support to the major ayatollah Sistani. Since then al-Sadr has also made a further step towards uniting Iraqi groups by reaching an agreement with the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq. This agreement ended an inter-Shia feud between the two groups, who are the most powerful Shiite organizations in the country.

There have also been signs of unity elsewhere with the Sunni factions uniting together in major political and resistance groups. Some of these Sunni groups are working directly with the U.S. and the Iraqi governments, but all are opposed to the Maliki government and U.S. force presence. This uniting of various resistance groups is geared towards preventing any intra-Sunni battles after a U.S. withdrawal and formation of a new government.

In the Kurdish north there are also signs of unity and solidarity across ethnic lines where Sunni Kurds and Arabs come together with dominantly Shiite Turkomen to protest against Turkey's threat to invade the region. If the Maliki government support a Turkish invasion these groups will likely united against his government, ultimately leading to its downfall.

An even greater sign of solidarity would result from any invasion as al-Sadr has pledge to help the Kurds fight against any attack by Turkey. Should Sunnis join up with Sadr and the Kurds it would help reinforce an Iraqi nature among the Iraqi groups. Up until now the Kurds have been free of consequences from U.S. occupation and the Maliki government has largely heeded its demands, but should the U.S. and Maliki allow Turkey to invade Northern Iraq it would likely turn the Kurds against Maliki and the United States, only increasing a growing nationalism among Iraqis already aggravated by the Biden resolution and Blackwater scandal.

The end result of this realignment in Iraqi politics would be the Kurds joining with al-Sadr and tribal Sunnis to remove the Maliki government. However, while this new government would likely bring in all factions as a united government with a strong military contributed from Sunni militias, Sadr's Mahdi Army, and the Kurdish Army, it would also be extremely anti-American, possibly even including Ba'athist insurgent leader al-Dhouri, as Allawi has apparently reached out to his united resistance faction. Allawi and Ba'athist leaning officials could form a secular opposition to the extremely religious Sunni and Shia parties.

All of these parties would be united in their opposition to American occupation and would undoubtedly call for its immediate withdrawal.

Such a result would have a profound effect in the U.S. election. Up to this point the Democrats have focused a great deal on Iraq as have the Republicans, but a withdrawal being made at the request of the Iraqi government would remove this is an issue and it would expand to a greater debate. The wider Middle Eastern War likely to result from a Turkish invasion and the Conflict ignited by Kosovo's independence would come together to highlight national security and foreign policy as the biggest issues for the United States.

While Iraq has been an issue the Democrats have been able to avoid a broad foreign policy debate, but if Iraq ceases to be an issue standing against a Russo-Iranian alliance and containing their growth will become the major issue and the American voters will be looking for a President with strong national security credentials, which could ultimately be a success for Rudy Giuliani who will not only appeal to a a country fearing for its safety from a resurgent Russia and an Iranian empire, but also a country that's more liberal on social issues. For many frightened voters Giuliani would be the neo-con of neo-cons, a tough and forceful man against foreign enemies, but also strongly opposed to the interference of government in people's lives. A win for Giuliani may be in the cards if Turkey invades and the U.S. withdraws.

Also, in exchange for being removed from Iraq, the U.S. would have the fortune of a nationalist government opposed to interference by Iran with a strong military force from experienced insurgents joining the government. A nationalist Iraq would also serve as an effective buffer zone for the Gulf states against Iran and Syria. However, Iraq is also likely to become the source of many covert battles between the Iranian allies and Gulf States. A contest also waged between Iran's Russian ally and the Saudis American ally. A contest that could end in a brutal conflict between the major powers.

A Look at a Middle Eastern War

Should Turkey's involvement with the Kurds and Iran and the Armenian Genocide bill all come to boiling point this or next month we'll likely be set for a major Middle East war. Here is an idea of what it may entail and how it may look:

Iraqi Front

In Iraq we'd likely have a conflict focused primarily in Kurdistan. On one side we could have Turkey and Iran against the PKK, the Kurdish Army and possibly the Mahdi Army, other Iraqi militias, Iraqi security forces, and even U.S. troops.

This conflict would possibly start with a Turkish invasion followed up by Iranian assistance. The invasion could end up pushing all the way to the Kandil Mountains with the Turko-Iranian forces coming into conflict with the Kurdish Army. Al-Sadr and other Iraqi militia leaders may decide to send their troops to back up the Kurds and possibly Iraqi security forces could be deployed. U.S. troops up north may end up being drawn into the fight due to the Iranian presence.

U.S. troops, however could be unable to sufficiently support the Iraqis if Turkey cuts off Incirlik. If Sunni and Shia militias deploy to help the Kurds it is likely to provide a unifying factor for Iraq, but also may spell the end of Maliki's government if he is not perceived as leading strongly against the invasion.

This Turkish invasion would likely be the springboard for all other conflicts that could result in the region.

Iranian Front

This would primarily be an air and naval conflict with some limited ground battles, focusing on crucial Iranian ports and military bases, as well as nuclear infrastructure. There may be border skirmishes and some special ops infiltration by both sides.

For the most part this would be with Iran on one side and the British and U.S. on the other. Israel may get involved a little, but it's likely they'll be dragged into another major conflict.

If Iran becomes directly involved in the Kurdish conflict it is likely that American and British forces will be used to counter-attack. This would probably begin with a limited air strike against suspected terrorist training camps and military facilities. Iran would then possibly respond with missile attacks against the British and American forces in Iraq and possible attacks against the U.S. navy in the Persian Gulf.

Iran may use its Quds force and intelligence agents throughout the Middle East and even in Afghanistan to disrupt U.S. military operations. Key target areas are Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. Iran may also get involved over in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.

Syrian Front

On this front it would be mainly Israel against Syria in the Golan Heights, though Hezbollah and the Lebanse army may get involved due to Lebanon's claims to Shebaa Farms.

This conflict would be a response to the U.S. strike on Iran, the recent strike on Syria, and possible conflicts in Palestine and Lebanon. Syria would start with guerilla fights against IDF soldiers and the IDF could respond with limited airstrikes. Syria would then retaliate against those strikes with missile strikes against northern and central Israel. Syria is also likely to use their air force and air defense together to combat the Israeli Air Force.

If Assad does not respond to an Iranian airstrike with war there exists the possibility of Shawqat launching a coup and replacing Assad as the President.

Lebanese Front

In Lebanon it would be a more complicated matter with possible players being Hezbollah with Aoun's militia as well as other loyalist militias and a large faction of the Lebanese army fighting militias of the March 14 forces and factions of the army loyal to them and possibly Israel and UNIFIL. It could even erupt into an inter-Palestinian conflict by forces loyal to Hezbollah and other militias in the Palestinian refugee camps.

This conflict would likely involve the pretext of a revolution against the March 14th government to put in place a unified government run by Hezbollah, Aoun, and pro-Syrian Sunnis. It could also include attacks against UNIFIL by Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army to retake the areas under UNIFIL control.

Israel may also get involved in the Lebanese conflict deploying their army into Lebanon again, but facing far stiffer resistance having to face both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army. This may be justified by Israel for Hezbollah action in support of Syria in Golan or Hezbollah missile attacks against Israel.

With Hezbollah significantly strengthened this battle would be far deadlier, possibly even more difficult than the battle with Syria in the Golan Heights.

Palestinian Front

A conflict in this area is likely to be focused on Gaza, though it could involve limited action in the West Bank and Israel itself. It could follow a Fatah insurrection in Gaza which Israel backs with military force, invading the Gaza Strips. Egypt may involve itself by taking complete control of the Rafah Crossing and possibly penetrating a little into Southern Gaza.

Most of the conflict would be waged by Fatah and the IDF attempting to unseat the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip. Hamas would respond to the invasion with mass rocket attacks into Israel and some limited insurrection in the West Bank.

However, it is likely this conflict will be the least difficult for Israel by receiving a great deal of the IDF's attention. Overwhelming force is likely to be used, though it could still be bloody and difficult. Israel stands the best chance of succeeding on this front.

On the Combined Israeli front, it's possible Iran may also take significant action by using its Quds force and launch rockets at Israel or even use Iranian air forces stationed in Syria. There's also the possibility of Turkey using the air raid over Syria as a pretext to attack Israel, though probably unlikely.

Cypriot Front?

A conflict on Cyprus would involve Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots against the Greek Cypriots, Greek forces, and possible British forces.

While this is mere speculation a serious deterioration in ties with Turkey and the West could lead to a conflict in Cyprus. If this Middle Eastern War lasts into the time when Kosovo declares it independence Northern Cyprus may declare itself independent, which would be recognized by Turkey and possibly several allies or other Muslim nations. If this happens Turkey may use this and a dispute over Cypriot offshore oil and gas resources to justify an increase military presence in the region. This is likely to lead to a conflict with Greek Cypriot ships which might trigger an invasion of Greek Cyprus or air strike by Turkish forces.

In this event Greek Forces on the island and British forces will probably also intervene on the behalf of the Greek Cypriots.

Greek Front?

This would be between Greece and Turkey.

If there's a conflict over Cyprus it's likely to involve Greece and this may lead to a conflict over the Aegean Sea with Turkish forces. If that happens Turkey may attack the Greek mainland or Greece may attack the Turkish mainland. In this event a full-scale war between Greece and Turkey may result.

Ironically this would put Greece, a nation with good ties with Iran, Serbia, and Russia in conflict with Turkey, which would be fighting alongside Iran a strong ally of Serbia and Russia.

Conclusion

A war on this broad a scale would likely not happen all at once. It's possible that it will happen in stages with all of these conflicts likely being started within a month or two from the start of hostilities.

If all of the above scenarios play out it could mean many major shifts in international politics.

On the Israeli front a massive attack by Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas would leave the IDF strained with major attacks on Israel forcing millions into hiding and resulting in many Israeli civilian and military casualties. Should this be the case Israel may decide to make use of its nuclear weapons on Syria and/or Iran.

It's likely that Israel will succeed in Gaza and possibly Syria, especially if they use nuclear weapons, though they may not in Lebanon. In that case Lebanon will probably succeed in overthrowing the March 14th government.

This would probably force Syria to push for a ceasefire, though it could only antagonize Iran along with the American and British attacks, making them speed up their nuclear plans and launching a nuclear weapons program if they don't have one already.

With Turkey a conflict of this magnitude would destroy their relations with the U.S. and end their aspirations for the EU. Turkey is likely to then decide joining up with Russia and possibly joining the CSTO and EURASEC as well as joining the PAK FA project.

Iraq is likely to become a highly unified country with the possible removal of Maliki and a call for U.S. troop withdrawal. However, the government while opposed to U.S. troops will also be opposed to Iran and Turkey making them an effective buffer zone for the Gulf states.

Iran will probably respond to the conflict by launching a push for a nuclear weapon and revamping its military, though it may suffer from the American-led attack it is likely that the massive increase in oil and natural gas prices will leave Iran flush with cash. They'll also probably join the CSTO to solidify their stance with Russia.

However, this is only plausible should Turkey invade and Iran join them. So for now it's purely hypothetical though all of these conflicts are likely to occur some time in the future.

Turkey seeking authorization for War

Seemingly inevitable as it may be, it is still distressing to read of Turkey planning to invade Iraq.

The Turkish government has decided to seek parliamentary authorization for a cross-border military operation in northern Iraq to chase separatist Kurdish rebels there, a party official said Tuesday.

The decision, which follows deadly attacks on soldiers in recent days that outraged the public, came in a meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials from his ruling party, said a party official who was at the meeting. He asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

It was not clear when the bill would go before parliament, but the government wanted it to pass "as soon as possible," the official said after the meeting.

Source: Houston Chronicle

This is following a meeting of Turkey's government to decide on how to deal with two recent attacks in Turkey by the PKK one claiming 12 civilians and the other 13 soldiers. A spokesman for the government has said after the meeting "we are talking about the point where words do not suffice."

In other words unless the U.S. and Iraq do something about this now Turkey will authorize an invasion and, in spite of a recent agreement with Iraq, it's unlikely either will be willing to risk a major conflict in the only peaceful area of Iraq.

However, conditions are made worse by that fact that tomorrow a vote will be made on the Armenian Genocide bill by a Congressional committee, which will allow it to be put before a House vote. Turkey has threatened a serious response to this bill which would include:

1. Not extending the decree for permitting the passage of logistic needs of US soldiers from the İncirlik Air Base
2. Not permitting the use of the İncirlik Air Base as well as the US' use of Turkish land when withdrawing soldiers from Iraq
3. A slowing down of the cooperation in NATO
4. An agreement with Iran on the natural gas issue as well as seeking new agreements (which is already in the works)
   
5. The cancellation of the US Joint Strike Fighter Planes project
6. Ending the role of balance in Washington's Middle East policies.

Of course an invasion of Northern Iraq and alignment with Iran would certainly end the role of balance in the Middle East fulfilling the sixth reprisal. The first three reprisals would essentially go together and, if Turkey leaves the JSF project they may deal a greater blow to U.S. policy by joining the Russian PAK FA project.

Turkey was already being threatened with sanctions over their natural gas deal with Iran and if they take all of these measures in response to the Armenian Genocide resolution as well as an invasion of Northern Iraq, it's not likely anyone would object to placing sanctions on Turkey.

However, for now we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.