A Look at a Middle Eastern War

Should Turkey's involvement with the Kurds and Iran and the Armenian Genocide bill all come to boiling point this or next month we'll likely be set for a major Middle East war. Here is an idea of what it may entail and how it may look:

Iraqi Front

In Iraq we'd likely have a conflict focused primarily in Kurdistan. On one side we could have Turkey and Iran against the PKK, the Kurdish Army and possibly the Mahdi Army, other Iraqi militias, Iraqi security forces, and even U.S. troops.

This conflict would possibly start with a Turkish invasion followed up by Iranian assistance. The invasion could end up pushing all the way to the Kandil Mountains with the Turko-Iranian forces coming into conflict with the Kurdish Army. Al-Sadr and other Iraqi militia leaders may decide to send their troops to back up the Kurds and possibly Iraqi security forces could be deployed. U.S. troops up north may end up being drawn into the fight due to the Iranian presence.

U.S. troops, however could be unable to sufficiently support the Iraqis if Turkey cuts off Incirlik. If Sunni and Shia militias deploy to help the Kurds it is likely to provide a unifying factor for Iraq, but also may spell the end of Maliki's government if he is not perceived as leading strongly against the invasion.

This Turkish invasion would likely be the springboard for all other conflicts that could result in the region.

Iranian Front

This would primarily be an air and naval conflict with some limited ground battles, focusing on crucial Iranian ports and military bases, as well as nuclear infrastructure. There may be border skirmishes and some special ops infiltration by both sides.

For the most part this would be with Iran on one side and the British and U.S. on the other. Israel may get involved a little, but it's likely they'll be dragged into another major conflict.

If Iran becomes directly involved in the Kurdish conflict it is likely that American and British forces will be used to counter-attack. This would probably begin with a limited air strike against suspected terrorist training camps and military facilities. Iran would then possibly respond with missile attacks against the British and American forces in Iraq and possible attacks against the U.S. navy in the Persian Gulf.

Iran may use its Quds force and intelligence agents throughout the Middle East and even in Afghanistan to disrupt U.S. military operations. Key target areas are Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. Iran may also get involved over in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.

Syrian Front

On this front it would be mainly Israel against Syria in the Golan Heights, though Hezbollah and the Lebanse army may get involved due to Lebanon's claims to Shebaa Farms.

This conflict would be a response to the U.S. strike on Iran, the recent strike on Syria, and possible conflicts in Palestine and Lebanon. Syria would start with guerilla fights against IDF soldiers and the IDF could respond with limited airstrikes. Syria would then retaliate against those strikes with missile strikes against northern and central Israel. Syria is also likely to use their air force and air defense together to combat the Israeli Air Force.

If Assad does not respond to an Iranian airstrike with war there exists the possibility of Shawqat launching a coup and replacing Assad as the President.

Lebanese Front

In Lebanon it would be a more complicated matter with possible players being Hezbollah with Aoun's militia as well as other loyalist militias and a large faction of the Lebanese army fighting militias of the March 14 forces and factions of the army loyal to them and possibly Israel and UNIFIL. It could even erupt into an inter-Palestinian conflict by forces loyal to Hezbollah and other militias in the Palestinian refugee camps.

This conflict would likely involve the pretext of a revolution against the March 14th government to put in place a unified government run by Hezbollah, Aoun, and pro-Syrian Sunnis. It could also include attacks against UNIFIL by Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army to retake the areas under UNIFIL control.

Israel may also get involved in the Lebanese conflict deploying their army into Lebanon again, but facing far stiffer resistance having to face both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army. This may be justified by Israel for Hezbollah action in support of Syria in Golan or Hezbollah missile attacks against Israel.

With Hezbollah significantly strengthened this battle would be far deadlier, possibly even more difficult than the battle with Syria in the Golan Heights.

Palestinian Front

A conflict in this area is likely to be focused on Gaza, though it could involve limited action in the West Bank and Israel itself. It could follow a Fatah insurrection in Gaza which Israel backs with military force, invading the Gaza Strips. Egypt may involve itself by taking complete control of the Rafah Crossing and possibly penetrating a little into Southern Gaza.

Most of the conflict would be waged by Fatah and the IDF attempting to unseat the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip. Hamas would respond to the invasion with mass rocket attacks into Israel and some limited insurrection in the West Bank.

However, it is likely this conflict will be the least difficult for Israel by receiving a great deal of the IDF's attention. Overwhelming force is likely to be used, though it could still be bloody and difficult. Israel stands the best chance of succeeding on this front.

On the Combined Israeli front, it's possible Iran may also take significant action by using its Quds force and launch rockets at Israel or even use Iranian air forces stationed in Syria. There's also the possibility of Turkey using the air raid over Syria as a pretext to attack Israel, though probably unlikely.

Cypriot Front?

A conflict on Cyprus would involve Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots against the Greek Cypriots, Greek forces, and possible British forces.

While this is mere speculation a serious deterioration in ties with Turkey and the West could lead to a conflict in Cyprus. If this Middle Eastern War lasts into the time when Kosovo declares it independence Northern Cyprus may declare itself independent, which would be recognized by Turkey and possibly several allies or other Muslim nations. If this happens Turkey may use this and a dispute over Cypriot offshore oil and gas resources to justify an increase military presence in the region. This is likely to lead to a conflict with Greek Cypriot ships which might trigger an invasion of Greek Cyprus or air strike by Turkish forces.

In this event Greek Forces on the island and British forces will probably also intervene on the behalf of the Greek Cypriots.

Greek Front?

This would be between Greece and Turkey.

If there's a conflict over Cyprus it's likely to involve Greece and this may lead to a conflict over the Aegean Sea with Turkish forces. If that happens Turkey may attack the Greek mainland or Greece may attack the Turkish mainland. In this event a full-scale war between Greece and Turkey may result.

Ironically this would put Greece, a nation with good ties with Iran, Serbia, and Russia in conflict with Turkey, which would be fighting alongside Iran a strong ally of Serbia and Russia.

Conclusion

A war on this broad a scale would likely not happen all at once. It's possible that it will happen in stages with all of these conflicts likely being started within a month or two from the start of hostilities.

If all of the above scenarios play out it could mean many major shifts in international politics.

On the Israeli front a massive attack by Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas would leave the IDF strained with major attacks on Israel forcing millions into hiding and resulting in many Israeli civilian and military casualties. Should this be the case Israel may decide to make use of its nuclear weapons on Syria and/or Iran.

It's likely that Israel will succeed in Gaza and possibly Syria, especially if they use nuclear weapons, though they may not in Lebanon. In that case Lebanon will probably succeed in overthrowing the March 14th government.

This would probably force Syria to push for a ceasefire, though it could only antagonize Iran along with the American and British attacks, making them speed up their nuclear plans and launching a nuclear weapons program if they don't have one already.

With Turkey a conflict of this magnitude would destroy their relations with the U.S. and end their aspirations for the EU. Turkey is likely to then decide joining up with Russia and possibly joining the CSTO and EURASEC as well as joining the PAK FA project.

Iraq is likely to become a highly unified country with the possible removal of Maliki and a call for U.S. troop withdrawal. However, the government while opposed to U.S. troops will also be opposed to Iran and Turkey making them an effective buffer zone for the Gulf states.

Iran will probably respond to the conflict by launching a push for a nuclear weapon and revamping its military, though it may suffer from the American-led attack it is likely that the massive increase in oil and natural gas prices will leave Iran flush with cash. They'll also probably join the CSTO to solidify their stance with Russia.

However, this is only plausible should Turkey invade and Iran join them. So for now it's purely hypothetical though all of these conflicts are likely to occur some time in the future.