US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rica has requested three days from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to allow the withdrawal of US troops from northern Iraq to prevent a possible confrontation of Turkish and US troops in the event Turkey starts an incursion into northern Iraq to strike against bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorist organization, a Turkish official said.The fact security was turned over to Northern Iraq at the same time Turkey was creating tensions is likely no coincidence. It's also not surprising that Maliki would allow a Turkish invasion when he was prepared to sign an agreement to that effect in September. However, it didn't go through due to the objections of the Kurds.The official, who wished to remain anonymous, also said the US will urge the central Iraqi government and the regional authority in northern Iraq not to oppose a likely cross-border operation by Turkey. The same source added that there is no plan to deliver PKK leaders to Turkey. However, the US could turn a blind eye to Turkey's operations, the source said.
Should Turkey decide to invade and Maliki and the U.S. step aside it could create a serious challenge to U.S. presence in Iraq and Maliki's control of the government. Maliki's government has suffered numerous defections from the Sadrists, Iraqi List and Sunnis. Now Maliki's main source of power comes from the Kurds. If Maliki agrees to a Turkish invasion it is likely that the Kurdish Alliance will withdraw their support to Maliki or at least Barzani's KDP. After that Maliki's removal will be all but inevitable and a new unity government would be formed opposed to all foreign intervention.
Ground work for such an alliance is already being laid down. As I noted in a previous post, al-Sadr has built up his support among Sunni tribal leaders and extended his support to the major ayatollah Sistani. Since then al-Sadr has also made a further step towards uniting Iraqi groups by reaching an agreement with the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq. This agreement ended an inter-Shia feud between the two groups, who are the most powerful Shiite organizations in the country.
There have also been signs of unity elsewhere with the Sunni factions uniting together in major political and resistance groups. Some of these Sunni groups are working directly with the U.S. and the Iraqi governments, but all are opposed to the Maliki government and U.S. force presence. This uniting of various resistance groups is geared towards preventing any intra-Sunni battles after a U.S. withdrawal and formation of a new government.
In the Kurdish north there are also signs of unity and solidarity across ethnic lines where Sunni Kurds and Arabs come together with dominantly Shiite Turkomen to protest against Turkey's threat to invade the region. If the Maliki government support a Turkish invasion these groups will likely united against his government, ultimately leading to its downfall.
An even greater sign of solidarity would result from any invasion as al-Sadr has pledge to help the Kurds fight against any attack by Turkey. Should Sunnis join up with Sadr and the Kurds it would help reinforce an Iraqi nature among the Iraqi groups. Up until now the Kurds have been free of consequences from U.S. occupation and the Maliki government has largely heeded its demands, but should the U.S. and Maliki allow Turkey to invade Northern Iraq it would likely turn the Kurds against Maliki and the United States, only increasing a growing nationalism among Iraqis already aggravated by the Biden resolution and Blackwater scandal.
The end result of this realignment in Iraqi politics would be the Kurds joining with al-Sadr and tribal Sunnis to remove the Maliki government. However, while this new government would likely bring in all factions as a united government with a strong military contributed from Sunni militias, Sadr's Mahdi Army, and the Kurdish Army, it would also be extremely anti-American, possibly even including Ba'athist insurgent leader al-Dhouri, as Allawi has apparently reached out to his united resistance faction. Allawi and Ba'athist leaning officials could form a secular opposition to the extremely religious Sunni and Shia parties.
All of these parties would be united in their opposition to American occupation and would undoubtedly call for its immediate withdrawal.
Such a result would have a profound effect in the U.S. election. Up to this point the Democrats have focused a great deal on Iraq as have the Republicans, but a withdrawal being made at the request of the Iraqi government would remove this is an issue and it would expand to a greater debate. The wider Middle Eastern War likely to result from a Turkish invasion and the Conflict ignited by Kosovo's independence would come together to highlight national security and foreign policy as the biggest issues for the United States.
While Iraq has been an issue the Democrats have been able to avoid a broad foreign policy debate, but if Iraq ceases to be an issue standing against a Russo-Iranian alliance and containing their growth will become the major issue and the American voters will be looking for a President with strong national security credentials, which could ultimately be a success for Rudy Giuliani who will not only appeal to a a country fearing for its safety from a resurgent Russia and an Iranian empire, but also a country that's more liberal on social issues. For many frightened voters Giuliani would be the neo-con of neo-cons, a tough and forceful man against foreign enemies, but also strongly opposed to the interference of government in people's lives. A win for Giuliani may be in the cards if Turkey invades and the U.S. withdraws.
Also, in exchange for being removed from Iraq, the U.S. would have the fortune of a nationalist government opposed to interference by Iran with a strong military force from experienced insurgents joining the government. A nationalist Iraq would also serve as an effective buffer zone for the Gulf states against Iran and Syria. However, Iraq is also likely to become the source of many covert battles between the Iranian allies and Gulf States. A contest also waged between Iran's Russian ally and the Saudis American ally. A contest that could end in a brutal conflict between the major powers.
In the Kurdish north there are also signs of unity and solidarity across ethnic lines where Sunni Kurds and Arabs come together with dominantly Shiite Turkomen to protest against Turkey's threat to invade the region. If the Maliki government support a Turkish invasion these groups will likely united against his government, ultimately leading to its downfall.
An even greater sign of solidarity would result from any invasion as al-Sadr has pledge to help the Kurds fight against any attack by Turkey. Should Sunnis join up with Sadr and the Kurds it would help reinforce an Iraqi nature among the Iraqi groups. Up until now the Kurds have been free of consequences from U.S. occupation and the Maliki government has largely heeded its demands, but should the U.S. and Maliki allow Turkey to invade Northern Iraq it would likely turn the Kurds against Maliki and the United States, only increasing a growing nationalism among Iraqis already aggravated by the Biden resolution and Blackwater scandal.
The end result of this realignment in Iraqi politics would be the Kurds joining with al-Sadr and tribal Sunnis to remove the Maliki government. However, while this new government would likely bring in all factions as a united government with a strong military contributed from Sunni militias, Sadr's Mahdi Army, and the Kurdish Army, it would also be extremely anti-American, possibly even including Ba'athist insurgent leader al-Dhouri, as Allawi has apparently reached out to his united resistance faction. Allawi and Ba'athist leaning officials could form a secular opposition to the extremely religious Sunni and Shia parties.
All of these parties would be united in their opposition to American occupation and would undoubtedly call for its immediate withdrawal.
Such a result would have a profound effect in the U.S. election. Up to this point the Democrats have focused a great deal on Iraq as have the Republicans, but a withdrawal being made at the request of the Iraqi government would remove this is an issue and it would expand to a greater debate. The wider Middle Eastern War likely to result from a Turkish invasion and the Conflict ignited by Kosovo's independence would come together to highlight national security and foreign policy as the biggest issues for the United States.
While Iraq has been an issue the Democrats have been able to avoid a broad foreign policy debate, but if Iraq ceases to be an issue standing against a Russo-Iranian alliance and containing their growth will become the major issue and the American voters will be looking for a President with strong national security credentials, which could ultimately be a success for Rudy Giuliani who will not only appeal to a a country fearing for its safety from a resurgent Russia and an Iranian empire, but also a country that's more liberal on social issues. For many frightened voters Giuliani would be the neo-con of neo-cons, a tough and forceful man against foreign enemies, but also strongly opposed to the interference of government in people's lives. A win for Giuliani may be in the cards if Turkey invades and the U.S. withdraws.
Also, in exchange for being removed from Iraq, the U.S. would have the fortune of a nationalist government opposed to interference by Iran with a strong military force from experienced insurgents joining the government. A nationalist Iraq would also serve as an effective buffer zone for the Gulf states against Iran and Syria. However, Iraq is also likely to become the source of many covert battles between the Iranian allies and Gulf States. A contest also waged between Iran's Russian ally and the Saudis American ally. A contest that could end in a brutal conflict between the major powers.
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