Russia in a Middle Eastern War

A recent report by Asia Times has jitters down the spines of its readers by claiming that Russia has declared an attack on Iran to be an attack on Russia.

In the wake of Turkey's Foreign Minister visiting Iran after rejecting Iraqi proposals on the PKK with speculation they may reach an agreement to invade Northern Iraq together, such a report is sure to be even more disturbing. If Turkey bring Iran on board with an invasion it could lead to strikes against Iran and should Russia consider it an attack on Russia, it could start a world war.

However, Iran's Press TV subsequent reporting of this story changes the danger slightly:

According to a high-level diplomatic source in Tehran, the Supreme Leader and the Russian president essentially agreed that an American attack on Iran would be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

What "essential" means in this context is of dire importance. This is, after all, not the first time a Russian president ha made such threats as Boris Yeltsin made similar threats over the Kosovo War. However, ultimately what happened was more pressure than conflict with Russian peace-keepers rushing to Kosovo and nearly coming into conflict with NATO forces, but cooler heads prevailing.

While Putin has compared the missile defense plans to the Cuban Missile Crisis it may actually be more apt to use the comparison with Iran. It is unlikely Putin or Bush have the stomach for a major war and Bush has shown his own reluctance to attacking Iran by imposing sanctions on Iran without using the controversial terrorist designation, which could be de-facto authorization for war, despite bi-partisan support for such a move in the Senate. So the prospect of Bush going to war with Russia are even more slim and it's unlikely Putin is willing to go to war either.

However, should there be a strike on Iran Russia may make several threats and moves:

1. Threaten against an invasion - Russia may threaten the United States with war should they invade Iran. This would be a likely step and one that would not be too risky as not even the most radical American planners intend to invade. Also, the threat would likely cause the U.S. to recede a little from major strikes for fear of inciting Russia. However, further steps may be needed to back up this threat.

2. Send military forces into Iran - Iran could request or authorize Russian troops to be deployed into Iran, possibly using the defense of Bushehr as a justification and allow the Russian air force to use Iranian airspace. Russia would then have a potent deterrent to further attacks by having Russian fighters patrol the skies. The U.S., knowing a miscalculation could result in a world war, would be forced to reduce its actions to strategic strikes with cruise missiles and stealth bombers. These forces would only be deployed in defensive positions, to reinforce they're not intended to attack any country but to protect Iran.

3. Beef up patrols near U.S. territory - Already Russia is conducting regular patrols near NATO airspace. By increasing the number and size of patrols as well as being more aggressive in their patrols by sending out fighters and getting closer to NATO airspace or even violating their airspace the U.S. would be given a distinct warning that Russia is serious about blocking any further aggression against Iran.

4. Threaten conflict elsewhere - With Kosovo's independence inevitable Putin could roll out the threat of recognition in Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh to put the U.S. further on the defensive by making it clear Russia would seek to resolve these frozen conflicts by force if the U.S. launches further attacks in Iran. While Russia is likely to do this anyway later they could build up troops on the borders of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and build up its naval presence in the Black Sea. The benefit of this mainly being they could be used should there be an actual need for them after Kosovo declares its independence.

5. Put military forces, including nuclear forces, on high alert - By putting its military forces on high alert the U.S. would know how serious Russia is about preventing further attacks on Iran. The bringing to alert of its nuclear forces would drastically increase the pressure on the United States and convince it to stop attacking the country, shifting to naval conflicts and air battles outside Iranian territory.

All or some of these methods could be used to prevent the U.S. from launching an attack on Iran without igniting a war. However, this would also ruin Russian relations with the U.S. and effectively make Russia the guarantor of Iran's security against the United States, paving the way for a contest of wills between the two great powers in the Middle East with Iran and Saudi Arabia serving as their major proxies in a regional cold war.

Exactly the kind of powder keg that needs nothing more than a bullet to set it off.