Maoists in Nepal threaten to retake government from the streets

Since leaving power in protest against the President of Nepal's actions the Maoists have been agitating for their return. The latest effort was a three-day general strikethe declaration of autonomous states which crippled the nation's economy by blocking off transportation. This followed a series of actions by the Maoists including the declaration of numerous autonomous states encompassing the whole of Nepal. Following the conclusion of the strike Maoist leader Prachanda issued an ultimatum threatening an indefinite strike across the country if the government do not form a national unity government with the Maoists by January 24.

Before this Baburam Bhattarai, a key party official, said if a constitution is not implemented by May 14 next year then both the interim constitution and presidency will "cease to exist" and the Maoists will then "declare constitution from the streets and capture power" though how this will be achieved is not made clear. However, another Maoist official has warned Nepal risks sinking back into civil war and blames Indian interference.

Nepal is also the center of a geopolitical struggle between India and China. As India seeks a strengthening of defense ties with Nepal China is also moving towards expanding its ties with the nation. The Maoists being far more hostile to India than the other major powers could prove a critical factor in Nepal's place in the region. Any future scenario with the Maoists in full power and reshuffling the government according to their wishes will sway them towards China. In particular Maoists hostility towards the Ghurka recruitment risks heightening tensions with, not only India, but the United Kingdom as well.

If the Maoists are not returned to power with the agreement of the other parties then there runs a risk of them launching a revolution that could entangle both India and China, potentially even the UK, in a devastating civil war.

North Korea declares "firing zone" in West Sea

Declaring the move to be a reaction to "reckless military provocative maneuvers by the warmongers in the South Korean military" North Korea has designated the disputed Northern Limit Line of the West Sea a peacetime naval firing zone and warned ships to avoid entering the area. If South Korean ships civilian or military enter the area North Korea has threatened to use artillery from coastal and island bases against them.

Earlier in the year President Lee Myung-Bak of South Korea authorized South Korean military forces to retaliate to any attack coming from such land-based weaponry. Then in November a brief naval skirmish broke out between a North Korean ship and South Korean naval forces. Though this battle heightened the risk it did not lead to a renewal of the Korean War. Two other skirmishes occurred years before but also did not result in a new war. However, the declaration that ships will be fired on by coastal or island-based weapons introduces a new complication.

Despite a series of battles breaking out between North Korea and South Korea, the worse situation being in 1968 when an assassination attempt was launched by North Korean commandos, with the commandos fighting with police and troops, and a U.S. ship came under attack. Another serious incident occurred in 1976 called Operation Paul Bunyan where an attempt to clear tree limbs obstructing the view of border guards saw large-scale military support. However, in every single major post-war incident there was not a direct act on North Korean territory by South Korean military forces. With the two orders issued by North Korea and South Korea such a scenario has become plausible. If North Korea keeps its promise and fires on South Korean ships they will then be free to retaliate. As this situation has not arisen before there is no definite way of knowing what will occur.

The most recent threat comes as President Barack Obama pursues diplomacy to try and bring North Korea back into the six-party talks on its nuclear weapons capability. South Korea's foreign minister has warned that failure to restart the talks by March could mean them ending entirely.

Complicating the situation even more is the reported worsening health of Kim Jong-Il. Having already suffered a stroke and kidney disease the North Korean leader is now said to be suffering laryngitis with forcing him to work every other day. Uncertainty over the leadership at the same time as a skirmish increases the chances of a more dire reaction by North Korea's military. The fact Kim Jong-Il has suffered from a stroke already makes this new sickness all the greater risk to his life. Kim Jong-Il's death would greatly upset the already dire geopolitical situation in the Korean peninsula.

Iranian forces seize Iraqi oil field

Today the Iraqi government accused Iran of seizing an oil field in Iraqi territory. Though sporadic clashes have occurred before in this incident Iraq is saying that Iranians forces sent tank into the territory, erected their flag, and began digging trenches. Iraq has demanded that they leave though whether this could escalate into an armed confrontation depends on the support of the U.S. Any battle could result in escalations and lead to an all-out war. However, even if the situation is defused it provides a potential look into Iran's strategy should war erupt in the Middle East. While Iran's threats to block the Straits of Hormuz have been well-publicized the potential for Iran to seize Iraqi oil fields has not.

Other potential actions which could lead to a renewed war have arisen recently. The most obvious risk is an attack over Iran's nuclear program which came back into question as Obama was said to inform the Chinese that the U.S. could not hold back an Israeli attack indefinitely. Given numerous examples of Iran's program advancing in both enrichment and weaponization the more times passes the more inevitable an attack becomes.

Another risk emerged with the Abbas government in the West Bank threatening a unilateral declaration of independence. The Israeli government's response was that it would then annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Though they have backed away from this preferring to push for a Security Council vote, the potential for such a declaration could arise should the vote fail and discussions remain deadlocked. Indonesia expressly supported recognition of a unilateral declaration and it is likely other countries would as well. This possibility arose due to the unilateral declaration of Kosovo and later recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia. Though a declaration by itself may not cause such an event Israeli retaliation by annexing parts of the West Bank could invite other actors eventually including Iran.

Hamas has also stated what has long been expected in the event of a war with Iran. They declared that they will aid Iran if a war erupts. In this area Hamas has been improving their capabilities to prepare for such a war. Having learned from the war earlier this year Hamas is building up its weapons stockpile and improving its defensive infrastructure. Though far from being as capable as Hezbollah they are also acquiring missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv. Combined with Hezbollah's capabilities, a future war will see Tel Aviv hit from all directions.

The consequences as indicated by the developments in Iraq would be massive disruption of world oil supply.