Tensions escalate in the South Caucasus and the Middle East

A clash between Armenian and Azeri soldiers in the area of Nagorno-Karabakh that left four Armenian soldiers and one Azeri soldier dead took place on June 18 as the worst in a rising number of incidents along the front. The attack took place after a meeting to discuss the disputed region seemed to lead to Azeri President Ilham Aliyev leaving in apparent frustration over the situation. Hundreds of incidents have apparently occurred since then with another Azeri soldier being killed on June 21st. While both sides have accused the other of initiating the clash it seems the incident is a consequence of Azerbaijan failing to modify the Madrid Principles on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in its favor.

In the recent past Azerbaijan has warned that if it does not see a change in the stalemate, specifically one that would be more accommodating to the Azeri position, that they would resort to the use of force. Since the clash a number of comments from Azerbaijan suggest the escalation on the front is intended to provide a pretext for Azerbaijan to retake Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev has reportedly said he is sure Karabakh would be "liberated" soon and Azerbaijan's foreign minister warned the attacks would continue until Baku regain control over the territory.

Other events in the region could signal an international element to this potential conflict. Iran has recently raised fears of war along its border with Azerbaijan in response to an alleged build-up of U.S. and Israeli military power in the country. This is believed by Iran to be preparations for an airstrike against Iran by the U.S. and Israel. However, it is possible the U.S. and Israeli forces are responding to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Both countries have strong ties with Azerbaijan while Armenia is aligned with Russia. The Iranian buildup does present another potential international actor, however, as it has begun massing forces in response to this alleged buildup by the United States. Iran has more established ties with Armenia and has made threats in the past towards Azerbaijan, especially in light of the potentially secessionist Azeri population in Northwestern Iran.

As the situation in the Middle East approaches the point of war, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could provide a trigger or even another front in such a war. Such developments in the Middle East would help to distract the world community from the situation in the South Caucasus. Even further should these events coincide Russia and Iran could exchange places with Iran providing support to the Armenians and Russia giving Iran an umbrella of protection from Israeli nuclear attack or any U.S. invasion.