2008, a year of conflict

BBC News reporter Nick Thorpe wrote an article on the developing conflict in the Balkans. In it he suggested, "2008 could be the year the clouds of war finally disappear." I can't help but admire his irrational optimism.

His biggest mistake, like with all reports in Western Europe and the United States is the presumptuous belief that Serbia can be easily pacified and isn't going to fight what it knows to be a losing battle. Of course, Serbia doesn't have to defeat NATO to win the battle. Not being able to understand this is why there's a rush to recognize Kosovo and little worry about the consequences.

One of the most foolish and possibly dangerous presumptions is that Serbia will give up Kosovo for EU membership. While President Boris Tadic is pro-European and would continue on the European path Vojislav Kostunica is a nationalist. Tadic's tacit approval of trading Kosovo for EU membership is believed to be why he scheduled a presidential election for January 20th. The EU's schedule for signing the SAA, a step towards entry talks, on January 28th is believed to be aimed at propping up Tadic before an expected second round of votes in the presidential election.

However, ambitiously propping up Tadic may due far more harm then good to the pro-European faction in Serbia. Kostunica has threatened to form a new coalition with the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party which would command a majority of 128 seats, only two seats less than the current three-party coalition. If Kosovo declares its independence any time before February 3rd it could help the Serbian Radical Party's Tomislav Nikolic take the presidency where most polls show him and Tadic in a dead heat during the second round. A win for Nikolic is especially likely if Tadic appears willing to trade Kosovo for EU membership.

This would create a situation where the government is under the complete control of nationalists. Tadic's only chance would be to call a general election, however this might only serve to delay and could work in favor of the nationalists standing to gain off a declaration of independence by Kosovo. In interest of avoiding such a scenario Kostunica may refrain from taking sides until the presidential election is over and the new president is sworn in about two weeks later. In this case Kosovo may be able to gain two weeks without having to worry about reprisals from Serbia.

Tadic's conflict with Kostunica though, may have already been resolved after a resolution was backed by Tadic's party. The resolution calls for no agreement to be signed without recognizing Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, implying that any agreement with Serbia must consider Kosovo as a part of Serbia. It also calls for stopping movement towards joining NATO. In particular Tadic suggested he would send in the Serbian army if Kosovo Serbs come under attack, though only with international support.

His willingness to do this is, however, in question and it's blamed largely on election politics. It's seemingly a shallow and transparent attempt at improving his poll numbers, but it could work all the same, presuming Kosovo keeps up its end in this bargain and does not declare independence until after February 3rd.

In this area Kosovo has already made its first big step towards independence:

Kosovo's two main political parties have agreed to form a coalition government which will lead the breakaway province towards independence from Serbia early next year, party sources said on Wednesday.

While both the President and Prime Minister have pledged to work with the EU and US, they've also declared independence is "weeks away" just last week. Regardless of when Kosovo declares its independence the EU and US all plan to recognize it. So if Tadic follows up an independence declaration from Kosovo by signing the SAA, it could kill his support in presidential elections, giving Nikolic the presidency. He would likely assume office around February 17th. Kostunica then would be free to abandon the current governing coalition and join with the Radical Party.

Thorpe is also dismissive of Srpska and a move towards independence by them. This in itself seems to be little more than wishful thinking. Srpska's president has actually stated he would call a referendum on independence is Kosovo was recognized. Controversial police reforms are being delayed until mid-February, right after the Serbian elections. Should Nikolic win the presidency and his party forge a nationalist government Dodik may decide to call a referendum on independence or, if blocked in this move, declare independence outright. Such an event will mean nothing short of war as Srpska is cut in two by the Brcko district belonging to both the Serb entity and the Bosnian Federation. Nikolic and Kostunica would rush to support Bosnian Serbs, reigniting conflict in the Balkans.

One potential outcome which could inflame Serb irredentist interests is a push by the newly independent Kosovo to join with Albania. A member of Kosovo's government has suggested this as an inevitable outcome of independence. Current Prime Minister Agim Ceku has also stated this as a possibility, particularly if Serbia tries to force secession of Northern Kosovo. What exists in Kosovo now is a partition in fact and in the event of independence Serbia could push the north towards secession, especially if there is violence against Serbs. Irredentism from Kosovo would further push Serb irredentism and encourage Srpska to secede from Bosnia and join Serbia. It also could push Serbia into conflict with Albania.

While it's unlikely Serbia would ever be paid off by EU membership and this has actually served more to enrage Serbs then pacify them the same can not be said for other Balkan states. Macedonia and Montenegro, despite having reason to worry about Albanian irredentism, both having ethnic Albanian communities, appear set for recognizing Kosovo. Macedonia will, however, benefit from an invitation for NATO membership in April 2008. Albania will also be given NATO membership and Croatia, which could be faced with problems of Serb irredentism incited by Kosovo's independence and has an ethnic interest in preserving Bosnia. Croatia could also see its EU talks sped up towards reaching a 2010 accession date. Montenegro, likewise could be put on the fast track for EU and NATO membership, with EU accession as soon as 2012, according to member of the European Parliament.

This would stand to make Serbia's position worse, but also open room for far greater conflict. A merger of Kosovo with Albania would likely take place after NATO membership and with all four as NATO members Serbia would be almost completely surrounded by NATO members, making almost any conflict in the Balkans a conflict with all of NATO. Serbia's only option would then be to join the CSTO thus making any war in the Balkans a war between the U.S. and Russia.

However, while the optimists will ignorantly seek to allay concerns about the Balkans seeing renewed conflict they tend to ignore the ramifications outside of Europe. Most prominently is the development in Russia:

" - In case of the unilateral recognition of the independence of Kosovo, Russia will be entitled to change its approach to the so-called unrecognized republics in the post-soviet regions - South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie," the chairman of the Council of the Federation (upper chamber of the Russian parliament), Sergei Mironov, said on Tuesday.

" - If countries start recognizing Kosovo randomly, this will be the first violent change of borders in Europe after World War Two, and the consequences will be unforeseeable,” Mironov warned at a press conference in Moscow.

According to the political leader, this will mark the beginning of a domino principle and then it will be possible to raise the issue of the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which broke away form Georgia.

" - In case of such a recognition of Kosovo, Russia will be able to say that it is free in its approach, including towards the so-called unrecognized republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie,” Mironov said, using the official short-form name of the Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublica (PMR).

This follows a statement by the leader of the lower house saying such recognition would be looked at starting January. The timing can not be easily ignored and this is obviously a response to Kosovo's inevitable declaration of independence. It's end result is effectively expected, Russia will recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. While Transistria's independence may be uneventful given President Voronin's trepid approach to Russia, Georgia has said recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence would effectively be a declaration of war, something all sides have been preparing for since 1991 and especially since the Rose Revolution. What happens depends largely on Georgian elections scheduled for January 5th. Polls show a conflicting story with Saakashvili first in most and in some by an overwhelming majority among decided voters. He has also played things in his favor by putting forward a referendum on whether Georgia should join NATO. If Saakashvili can maintain his place in office it would be a serious blow to Russia and make a war in the region almost inevitable.

Fallout from Kosovo could go further into Taiwan which is also heading towards a likely war due to a referendum on joining the U.N. with the name Taiwan which both China and the U.S. see as provocation, despite the fact Taiwan will never make it into the U.N. Not only could Kosovo's independence and recognition help the pro-independence DPP win in the legislative and presidential elections another event may make this more likely. It all depends on a court verdict on Friday. If KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou is found guilty and sentenced to 10 years or more or convicted on breach-of-trust he'll be unable to run for president. This will effectively guarantee a victory for Frank Hsieh of the DPP and could carry on to the KMT's performance in the legislative elections. Faced with the prospect of a DPP-controlled government, especially one with a two-thirds majority needed for changes to the constitution, and a successful referendum China may decide to launch an attack on Taiwan.

Suffice to say the clouds of war will probably not disappear, but instead darken and spread.