Could Turkey Unite Iraq?

A New York Times story published on December 23rd has suggested U.S. support for Sunni Awakening groups might be increasing the chances of civil war in Iraq. The Awakening groups have grown to possibly 80,000 troops and may soon reach 100,000 troops overall. Iraq's government is concerned this large force may end up being used against it. However, there is another possibility that the Sunni Awakening groups could end with a new united Iraqi government and army. Turkey could provide the perfect catalyst.

Turkey has been launching even more attacks on Northern Iraq. The continued bombardment of Northern Iraq, which has just begun increasing could be a sign that Turkey's building up in preparation for a full-scale invasion. A recent attack in Istanbul blamed on the PKK may provide even stronger incentive for Turkey to invade Iraqi Kurdistan. If Turkey actually does invade the Kurds in the north are likely to fight back. A major war breaking out could also draw Iran into Iraq.

In this event several groups such as the Awakening militias and Moqtada al-Sadr's forces could rush to fight alongside the Kurds. After this it's likely Iraqis will rally around one of the major leaders in among them and forge a new government, toppling the Maliki government backed by the U.S.

Al-Sadr appears to be grooming himself for just this possibility getting deep into Islamic studies, eyeing the possibility of becoming an Ayatollah. Becoming such a religious leader would allow him to challenge his rival al-Sistani and his Badr Brigade. Al-Sadr has one strength in his Iraqi and Arab heritage, compared to Sistani's Iranian birth. By establishing himself as legitimate religious authority al-Sadr would be able to build his movement even larger and become a true national leader.

To this end it's believe his recent cease-fire is aimed at increasing the strength of his Mahdi Army. The aim is to provide an Iraqi militia modeled after Hezbollah, with significant religious, political, and military power. Sadr's aim may be to have an effective state within a state in Iraq. He is also using this time to weed out those responsible for sectarian killings in his militia. This will help to end the strife between al-Sadr and the Sunni population.

Al-Sadr has been reaching out to this very community in an attempt to form an alliance against the United States. The Awakening movements may provide the perfect chance for al-Sadr to forge an Iraqi national resistance against the U.S. occupation and Maliki government. If recent events are any indication it's possible the Kurds could also join up with the resistance.

Kurdish leaders have increasingly been in disagreement with the Maliki government over a variety of issues. Part of the problem is Kurdish oil deals signed with foreign countries, which Iraq's government rejects and has declared them void. In addition they've asked for a specific portion of the oil revenue in the country. There is also the contentious issue of Kirkuk and its referendum on joining the Kurdish region. Not only that but Iraq's government wants the Kurdish region to reduce its large army which is believed to be as large as 180,000 troops down to only about 25,000 troops which they claim is the limit given in previous agreements.

These issues all run the risk of ending the crucial support of Maliki from the Kurds, which would bring down the ruling government. While it's possible other factions will not agree with the demands of the Kurds either they may be willing to forge a coalition with them in order to remove the Maliki government.

U.S. support of Turkey's strikes in Northern Iraq is also threatening ties between the U.S. and the Kurds. A Kurdish leader over a week ago refused to meet with Condoleeza Rice. If Turkey launches an invasion of Northern Iraq it will most likely not be blocked by the United States, which has the likely possibility of alienating the Kurds completely who would look for new allies and may find them in Sadr and the Awakening movements. Sadr supporting the Kurds against Turkey and possibly Iran would also legitimize him before the Sunnis as well, making it more likely they would join them along with the Kurds. An alliance of the Kurdish Regional Government, the Awakening movement, and Al-Sadr could lead to the formation of a unity government with representation from Sunnis, Kurds, and Shiites with a large capable of army around 350,000 troops strong and one completely opposed to foreign interference and occupation, unfortunately for the U.S.