On the edge of a Storm

Next week, likely December 11th or December 12th, Kosovo will probably declare its independence unilaterally. They are expected to be quickly recognized by the U.S., Britain, several other European countries, and several Muslim countries. Once this is done the can of worms will be opened and conflicts may emerge across Europe.

In Kosovo NATO is already preparing for the event that there is violence in the province after independence:

NATO's chief said Tuesday that his forces are prepared to respond to violence in coming weeks as the breakaway territory of Serbia prepares to assert its independence.

Gen. John Craddock said that plans include the possibility of quickly boosting the 16,000 NATO troops currently in Kosovo.

"I think that there will be those who want to create mischief and that will be manifested as strife, potentially violence in Kosovo,"

While Serbia has said they will not use their military against Kosovo in response to independence they have left open the possibility of using force:

"Different scenarios were considered, and a reaction is possible in the event of any attempts to violating security, or on the grounds of a political decision made by the Serbian government or the head of state," the sources at the MoD told the agency.

"Force deployment and unequivocal messages have already preventively made it clear to everyone that Serbia is ready to act in a serious manner should the need arise," the unnamed source explained.

The Serbian Army (VS) last week sent out recruitment orders for more than 700 soldiers under contract, for different posts in the Vranje, Leskovac and Bujanovac garrisons, in the south of the country.

Thursday, the cabinet decided that all ministries should make action plans for helping the Serb and other non-Albanian population in Kosovo, should there be a unilateral proclamation of independence, Labor Minister Rasim Ljajić told reporters after the session.

Essentially this means Serbia may react with military force if the Serb populations in Kosovo seem to be threatened. This same justification was given during the Yugoslav wars by Slobodan Milosevic. Protecting Serbs will not only apply in Kosovo, but Bosnia as well. Serbia's Prime minister recently said, "preserving Kosovo and Republika Srpska are now the most important goals of our [Serbian] state and national policy." Bosnia has recently been carrying out reforms to try and enter the EU, some of these reforms would involve integrating the police forces and changing the parliamentary voting system. Bosnia's Serbs see both reforms as attempts at destroying the Serb entity in Bosnia and have threatened themselves to declare independence. The Prime Minister of Republika Srpska has even said, "most people would want this to happen, to see the RS in some form outside of Bosnia-Herzegovina," and suggesting such a move could be unavoidable after Kosovo's independence.

However, it doesn't end in the Balkans. Another potential threat looms with Russia and the Caucasus. A former speaker of the State Duma in Russia has said that as soon as January the Duma could be considering recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If Kosovo declares its independence and is recognized unilaterally then it is possible this date may be moved up faster. Georgia has responded by saying that if such a recognition were made that it would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

This goes along with recent statements by Georgia's president stating of South Ossetia, "The [secessionist] regime in Tskhinvali is like a loose tooth ready for removal and I am sure – if the January 5 [presidential elections] are held normally – this is a matter of, if not weeks, then at the very most, months." His comments line up perfectly with South Ossetia and Abkhazia's expected recognition by Russia's State Duma. The implication seems to be that the issue will be resolved and likely by force.

Signs of this emerging struggle are already being shown. A journalist from Geneva recently suggested that Georgia's arms buildup is geared towards retaking South Ossetia and Abkhazia by force. Georgia's weaponry and funding for this arms buildup comes almost exclusively from the United States. South Ossetia and Abkhazia, feeling threatened by Georgia and likely suspecting their independence will come soon, are coming together and promising to fight against Georgia together should one of them be attacked. Georgia has also accused Russia of building up its own forces in the region in preparation for a war. A buildup to war is evident with these actions.

Interestingly enough the likely date of Kosovo's independence lines up almost perfectly with Russia's suspension of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty which will takes effect on December 12th. This means Russia could build up as many of its forces as it wants without any obligations to the West. The potential for this to be used against Georgia and other countries is clear.

Another potential flashpoint with Russia is in Moldova, where Transnistria expects to be recognized alongside South Ossetia and Abkhazia. A Russian member of parliaments has said Russia will recognize Transnistria and that several other countries will follow suit like Cuba, Venezuela, and Belarus. If this happens a potential conflict in Eastern Europe will erupt and with Russia suspending the CFE, there will be no limitations or obligations for their use of force in the region.

Nagorno-Karabakh may end up being recognized by Russia as well, which will ultimately result in a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia which could draw in Russia, the U.S., and Turkey. However, should Turkey be pre-occupied with the Kurds they may stay out of the situation. A conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, would most likely get Russia involved since they troops based in Armenia.

It will not end there, either. Independence for Kosovo and the following independence of these regions will incite independence movements around the world. In Northern Iraq the Kurds have been pushing for a referendum on Kirkuk and this is likely only to magnify their wishes and possibly incite them towards independence. Particularly the PKK may be pushed towards harder actions against Turkey as it has long aimed for a Kurdish nation. With this happening at the same time as Turkey's authorization for war in Northern Iraq, it could incite a Middle Eastern conflict.

Taiwan is in an election season and the independence of so many other unrecognized states outside the U.N. could translate into strong votes in favor of a U.N. referendum and the DPP during the presidential election. The combined effect of both votes is likely to start a war with China over Taiwanese independence, one that may leave out the United States.

Fallout from Kosovo's independence will be widespread and impact everywhere. In the U.S. a widespread war overseas could favor Rudy Giuliani who has staked his election on a strong stance on national security. A debate would rage throughout the U.S. on how to respond to this situation and what it means for the U.N., which has failed to deal with the problems. Calls for non-interventionism would fall on deaf ears while whoever is the toughest and roughest on foreign policy will be considered a strong contender for President. This likely means Giuliani winning the Presidency.

In Europe Belgium's current crisis could result in a complete dissolution of the country and Scotland may make immediate moves towards their own independence as well as the Basque country in Spain.

With conflicts raging all over the world the U.N. would be coming face to face with its own impotence in the face of massive world powers. While it will likely be the medium through which these conflicts are resolved, it will have proven itself incompetent at stopping the ambitions of other nations leading to serious questions about reforming the institution. Iraq had already shown a weakness in the U.N., but Kosovo's independence and the resulting wave of conflict, will prove their impotence.

After that all the U.N. can do is serve as a negotiating table for large powers to cut out their swaths of territory and create some form of stable peace. However, the damage to international peace will have already been made and nations will be on war-footing waiting for the next shot to start an even larger war.