Rebuilding the Russian Empire

President Putin is in Belarus to discuss the idea of forming a united state with the country. Belorussian officials said the talks will touch on a constitution for the formation of the new state, despite denials from the Kremlin. This may be just one of many ways for Putin to retain power over Russia, who can not run for a third consecutive term. It is also the most favorable for Putin as he would rule over an even larger territory.

Talks have been stalled for many years, but recently Pavel Borodin state secretary of the Union of Russia and Belarus said that a draft constitutional act had been completed and would be ready for approval at the next Supreme State Council meeting. The meeting consists of the Presidents, Prime Ministers, and head of the chambers of Parliament in both countries.

Reports are saying when the two merge Putin will become its President and Lukashenko of Belarus will become the Speaker of its Parliament. A merger of Russia and Belarus would be a major change in the current geopolitical field not only because it would increase the population and territory ruled by Putin, but because it would expand the reach of Russia's military. Adding on the additional manpower of Belarus would also increase the size and strength of Russia's military. Putting it in further context is Russia's suspension of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. Russia would be able to deploy its newly expanded military in Belarus on the border of Poland and Lithuania. In fact, the new merger would leave the Baltic states almost completely closed off and surrounded by Russia's military. Only a small border with Poland would remain out of Russian control.

For Belarus a merge would also provide additional benefits. One would be Belarus able to meet in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Previously Belarus was denied membership because they were not near Central Asia, however merged with Russia, a member of the grouping, Belarus would have complete justification for taking part in the discussion. Not only this, but Belarus would no longer have to be concerned about being cut off from Russian energy since it would be part of the new nation.

However, this merger would only be the first part of an expansion of Russia's power. The suspension of the CFE was completed yesterday and Russia immediately capitalized on it to expand its presence:

Russian planes on board the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier have conducted 11 practice flights in the North Sea, a Navy spokesman said on Tuesday.

A Russian naval group, comprising an aircraft carrier, two large anti-submarine ships and a number of auxiliary vessels, left last Wednesday on a tour to the Mediterranean as part of Russia's plans to resume its continual presence in different regions of the world's seas.

The timing of all of this can not be viewed as mere coincidence. With Kosovo's independence now a matter of when not if, Russia will want to have its military able to go anywhere in preparation for any scenario. Conflict isn't likely, however, deployment of the Russian navy in the Adriatic Sea during a conflict with Serbia is possible and airspace violations or threatening airspace violations. Deployment in the Mediterranean would also allow Russia to make its presence known in the Middle East during a potential conflict there or even position its navy near Morocco, which may come to blows with Russian ally Algeria over Western Sahara. Whatever Russia's reasons there's no denying that there is a rebuilding of a Russian empire. Belarus will be just one development of this, with the violent seizure of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria as other addition to Russia's strength. Down the line Crimea and other parts of Ukraine as well as parts of Kazakhstan could become prey to Russian expansion.

In the midst of this Russia has also escalated a dispute with the British:

Russia ordered the British government's cultural arm on Wednesday to halt work at its regional offices, in the latest round of a bitter dispute over the murder of Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko.

Relations between Russia and Britain hit their lowest level since the Cold War this year after Moscow refused to extradite a former KGB bodyguard who Britain suspects of poisoning Litvinenko in 2006 with radioactive polonium.

Russia said the British Council, which promotes British culture abroad, had breached international rules on consular activities by failing to properly register 15 regional offices.

Britain said Russia's move was illegal and the British Council had nothing to do with the row over Litvinenko's murder, which sparked a tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats in July.

Russia's spat with Britain comes from Russia's sheltering of the suspected murderer of Alexander Litvinenko, who was said to have been assassinated by Russia's government. Russia's intensification at this point when Kosovo is likely to be granted independence is probably also not a coincidence. Russia is stepping up the rhetoric and aggression due to the coming conflict over Kosovo and other unrecognized states. However, if this is just the beginning Russia may be heading to the point of no return in its relations with the West.