Madhesh May Secede from Nepal

Though little attention is being paid to this crucial flashpoint a disturbing event has emerged with Madhesh. While the Unified Madheshi Front has set out a plan and list of demands for their move towards autonomy as well as preparing for several peaceful agitations they have also made it clear what will happen if the demands aren't met:

“We are tired of the discrimination, and we would like to govern ourselves now. But if the government does not respect our demands, we will be forced to divide the Terai region from Nepal.”

Nepal's government has already been wary over the potential for Madhesh to secede and considers Madhesh's calls for autonomy an attempt at disintegrating Nepal. However, due to their apparent neglect in outlining autonomy for Madhesh the region may move towards secession. After such a move war would not be far behind and Nepali leaders would undoubtedly blame India as many already have.

Things are certainly not helped by the inevitable declaration of independence by Kosovo. With many regions seceding and getting recognition Madheshi leaders may feel like they too will be recognized if the declare independence. If they do, Nepal might view it as aggression by India and seek China's help, which could spark a conflict between the two nations already experiencing tension over a border dispute. However, this is unlikely unless Madhesh tries to merge with India.

When this possible secession would take place is a bigger question. The Madheshi Front has stated their plan for agitations and given dates of five day-long agitations as part of their movement for autonomy:

JMF, however, said that the protest to be organised in Biratnagar, Birgunj, Rupandehi, Janakpur and Nepalgunj would be peaceful. Yadav also warned if the government tried to disrupt or resist the protest, it would not be in the interest of the government as well as of the country. JMF is organising agitation on December 29, January 5, 9, 12 and 14.

�If the government fails to address the problem of the Madhesi, ethnic community, janajatis and marginalised groups the country may face disintegration," Yadav warned further.

Any moves towards secession are unlikely until after January 14th unless further violence instigates such a move. Like many other secessionist movements being brought to the surface right when Kosovo is approaching its independence, this seems to be aimed towards early next year. Whether Madhesh's push for secession would follow immediately after January 14th or take place beyond that depends on the government's reaction. If they grant autonomy to Madhesh it will likely prevent any further escalation for the time being, but it seems unlikely that the government aims for such an end and calls for secession may only serve to inflame their opposition.

Even if Madhesh follows through on secession and Nepal goes to war it may not incite a conflict beyond their borders, though it could be used by the King to try and remove the government once again. The most likely result is simply a major conflict in Madhesh and instability in other parts, though not significant. Perhaps the greatest danger posed by Madhesh is its potential to inflame the nationalist sentiment in Nepal, maybe resurrecting historical claims to parts of India which would result in a broader war if ever acted on.