The Coming Wars of Independence

Kosovo's President condemned a Serbian resolution calling for cutting ties with countries that recognize Kosovo among other retaliatory measures. He referred to the resolution as a form of aggression and stated Serbia's policy has led to nothing but bloodshed.

Ironically it may be the case that Kosovo Albanians may end up causing bloodshed. The most likely area of conflict will be in Northern Kosovo. According to a member of the Albanian National Army his militia will send its troops into Northern Kosovo to defend Albanians as soon as Kosovo declares independence. They would also be deployed in the northern part of Mitrovica a city in Northern Kosovo. Apparently their troops have been spending the past few months on mobilization and logistics.

Should these troops move up north they are likely to come into conflict with Serbs in the north, some who are effectively Serbian police in the region. Serbs in the region are also strongly connected to Serbia with some even hanging pictures of the Serbian Radical party leader Vojislav Seselj who is on trial for war crimes. A very light presence of NATO forces exists in the north, around 500 German troops and 200 U.S. troops, a force hardly suitable for preventing a conflict between Albanian militias and Serbs.

According to one Serb in Northern Kosovo, Serbia has worked out a plan with Russia to send in Russian military advisers and weapons shipments to allow Serbia to retake the north. He says these advisers would easily be able to cross the border with Kosovo. In the south of Kosovo, however, several Serbs are planning to move up north to Serbia as soon as independence or have already left.

A mass movement of Serbs up into Serbia would be a disastrous outcome for Kosovo's government and Albanian militias seeking to protect Albanians in Northern Kosovo may clash with Serbs trying to protect Serbs from Albanian attacks. An attack would be all the justification Serbia needs to send its troops into Kosovo and spark a new war in the Balkans.

Of course, this will not end at Kosovo. There are dozens of frozen conflicts waiting for the Kosovo precedent to stake their claim to independence. In the Balkans there are several Albanian communities wanting to leave their countries and join a Greater Albania. On the other side there are also Serb communities wishing to break off and join Serbia, most notably Srpska in Bosnia. A push for independence by Srpska would mean an automatic war with Bosnia.

To provide the most notable example of how Srpska's independence means an instant war one has too look at how the country is divided:

Srpska is the red region and the light green region is Brcko District, which is shared jointly by Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia. Effectively, Srpska is cut in half by Brcko district an ethnically mixed region with slightly more Bosniaks than Serbs and a minority of Croats. More importantly is that Srpska's de-facto capital, Banja Luka would be cut off from Serbia and it has no sea access. This makes a war effectively required in order for Srpska to secede as part of its territory is also part of the Federation of Bosnia and is a crucial connecting point between Srpska's capital and the rest of the region.

Other than the Balkans some unrecocgnized states in the Soviet Union are likely to declare their independence. One notable case is South Ossetia which is saying in 2008 they expect to be united with North Ossetia in Russia. This would be seen as declaration of war by Georgia who would undoubtedly rush to invade the unrecognized state as well as Abkhazia and may draw Russia into the conflict.

Kosovo's precedent could be used by Northern Cyrpus as well. A senior Turkish Cypriot official claims 2008 is the last window of opportunity for a resolution of the Cyprus conflict and that the EU is prepared to go forward with a plan for recognizing Northern Cyprus's independence, which Cyprus is blocking.

In Africa the precedent of Kosovo is possible for Western Sahara and Somaliland. Western Sahara's Polisario Front has warned they'll resume war with Morocco if no progress is made in talks on its status. This would likely be done after Polisario's Congress next June or July. Somaliland may also be recognized next year as well which could mean a war with Somalia as Somaliland plans to extend itself to the former border of British Somaliland.

With other possible independence conflicts arising in Taiwan, Madhesh, and Kurdistan which is aiming for a Kirkuk referendum the year 2008 could be a year of wars.