Turkey Ups the Ante in Iraq

Turkey has revealed that they recently launched two major attacks into Northern Iraq. One was an airstrike on Sunday and another was a small-scale incursion on Tuesday. The incursion involved about 300 troops. This is more than in a previous incursion earlier this month involving about 100 special forces and six helicopters.

It would seem Turkey's government is escalating its offensive actions in Northern Iraq more each time. Previously reports of incursions were scattered, often involving limited incursions and limited strikes lacking any coordinated action. Now the attacks seem to be getting more coordinated and strategic. This is possibly due to U.S. intelligence being funnelled to Turkey's military. Apparently this attack was actually approved by the U.S.:

The authoritative US daily quoted a military official as saying the US was "essentially handing (the Turks) their targets."

Further to the report, the unnamed official although denying that the US had given official approval of Turkish actions in Iraq explained that "(the Turkish military ) said, 'We want to do something.' We said, 'Okay, it's your decision'."

The Iraqi government, on the other hand, claimed the Turkish government did not inform them of the attack or consult them. This certainly offended the Iraqi government which has tended to tolerate Turkey's incursions in the past. All the same they took a relatively conciliatory tone in spite of the attack:

"We believe any unilateral actions to destabilise the situation will harm Iraq's interests and Turkey's interests at the same time," he said.

"But at the same time we fully understand and appreciate the legitimate security concern Turkey has over the PKK terrorist activities."

However, Turkey has not received the same kind of measured criticism from the Kurds in Iraq:

Massoud Barzani, leader of the autonomous Kurdish region in the north, condemned the assaults as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty that had undermined months of diplomacy. “These attacks hinder the political efforts exerted to find a peaceful solution based on mutual respect,” he said in a statement.

The United States' apparent tacit approval of Turkey's incursion has also put a serious wedge in U.S. relations with the Kurds:

However, the Kurdish government said that its president, Masoud Barzani, had decided not to travel to Baghdad to meet Ms Rice, because of his anger over the US’s role in the Turkish military action.

Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdish regional government, told Reuters the Kurdish president had decided not to go “because of the US position regarding the Turkish attacks and bombings”. He added: “The US supervises [Iraq’s] airspace so it is not possible that a violation of this airspace occurs without the knowledge or approval of the Americans.”

Differences between the U.S. and Kurds on Turkey's attacks as well as the Maliki's government restraint in condemning the attacks is sure to hurt the political situation in Iraq. Without Kurdish support Maliki's government would fall and if the Kurds see the U.S. as tolerating Turkey's actions they may fall behind many other political groups in Iraq seeking a U.S. withdrawal. Presently this is not likely to happen as the Turkish government is taking things carefully, however, this may not last much longer.

Turkey's incursions have stepped up in intensity and it is unlikely this is because the targets required more force. The Turkish government is probably either testing the waters to see how far the U.S. will tolerate Turkish action, or simply gradually building up force until they believe they have no choice but to launch a full-scale invasion. Now that they know this action is tolerated by the U.S. and understand the reaction created it is likely they will try to step up the next attack and make it larger. This could continue until they feel a large-scale attack would be accepted or becomes viable. Presently it is the winter which may prevent any major attack for the time being.

Should such an invasion take place Iraq will not be the only one impacted. A representative of the PKK recently said if Turkey invades Northern Iraq they will attack Azerbaijan. It is likely referring to supposed PKK camps in Nagorno-Karabakh which Azerbaijan has said could be attacked in the coming weeks. It would be a perfect excuse to prevent Nagorno-Karabakh from declaring independence after Kosovo.