Now we wait . . . . .

The predicted outcome of talks with Kosovo has arrived:

Kosovo's leaders said Monday they would embark on immediate talks on independence from Serbia and EU nations backed their cause as a UN deadline ended for a negotiated settlement.

"From today, Kosovo is starting intense consultations with its international partners with the aim of coordinating steps for declaring independence, and the official demands for recognising independence," said Skender Hyseni of the Kosovo Albanian negotiating team.

Only one question remains on Kosovo's independence, "When?" There appears to be some dispute on this. While many have called for independence before the end of the year some suggested it could come in early January next year. In this matter the EU has shown a growing unity:

The European Union is less divided but is unlikely to reach unity any time soon on how to react to Kosovo's plans to declare independence from Serbia, officials in Brussels conceded after a meeting of foreign ministers Monday.

'We are trying to organize a strong, cohesive, unified position (on Kosovo) within the EU. We still have more steps to make during the next weeks,' said Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the EU until December 31.

Indeed it seems there is only one country left that objects to a declaration outside of the U.N.:

Several ministers acknowledged that the biggest obstacle to a united EU position was posed by Cyprus, an island split in half by Greece and Turkey.

Cyprus officials insisted Monday that they would not recognize a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo's leaders and that talks between the sides should continue.

While Cyprus is particularly strong on this issue it may be related to the Turkish Cypriots in the north. Should they be reassured on that issue, they may come around to independence. If that happens and a consensus on independence is reached, it will have a strong impact on other nations like Montenegro and Croatia, aspiring EU members.

Russia has been issuing the usual veiled threats on this issue:

Serbia's main backer in the international arena, Russia, is already making threatening statements on the issue. Foreign minister Sergei Labrov said a unilateral declaration of independence would be illegal and would "naturally have consequences".

"I am positive that such steps will trigger a chain reaction in the Balkans and other regions. Everyone who has such plans must be fully aware of their responsibility," the Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

Of course, it has recently come out that Russia may be considering recognition of at least Abkhazia and South Ossetia in January, perhaps followed by Transnistria.

In another interesting develop recent accusations that the PKK is in Nagorno-Karabakh have lead to Azerbaijan threatening to attack the alleged PKK presence:

Azerbaijan is prepared to hold anti-terror operations against the placement of armed divisions of the Kurdish Worker Party (PKK) in Nagorno-Karabakh, Araz Azimov, the Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister and Azerbaijani President’s special representative for Nagorno-Karabakh, said in talks with journalists on 10 December.

Of course, Azerbaijan could simply use an alleged presence to justify retaking Nagorno-Karabakh, fearing or following its recognition by Armenia and Russia.

Put in context of the brewing Middle Eastern conflict, an attack by Azerbaijan may happen at the same time as an attack on Northern Iraq by Turkey. It is possible Turkey will cooperate with the U.S. and Azerbaijan, but should Iran back Turkey in Northern Iraq it could become a more complicated situation. Azerbaijan's relationship with Turkey comes primarily out of the Nagorno-Karabakh situation, but their relations with Iran are more dynamic and not simply a strategic alliance. One possibility is if Azerbaijan is backed by the U.S., but Turkey is told not to react or get involved. This could become a problem for Turkey and would drastically increase the possibility of an attack as popular outcry would be even greater than before. If Turkey invades without the U.S. acquiescence and gets support from Iran it could be the death knell to U.S.-Turkish relations.

There is also potential for problems in Taiwan, which is having a presidential election next year in March.Recent polls show the KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou with 37% support and pro-independence Frank Hsieh. Alongside this is a referendum on entering the U.N. under the name of Taiwan, which, if passed, would be the second of the five noes promised by Chen Shui-Ban to be broken after he scrapped the Unification Council last year.

Should pro-unification Ma win the election the results of the referendum may be overlooked by China given the KMT's friendly relations with China's government and ambition for peace talks. However, if the referendum passes, as it likely will regardless, and Frank Hsieh of the DPP wins, China may see Taiwan moving on an unavoidable path towards independence and take some form of military action against Taiwan. Under such circumstances it is likely the U.S. would not stop China, seeing the referendum as a needless provocation and also not wanting to come to blows with the Chinese. A win for Ma, though, is likely at the moment.

Independence for Kosovo, could, on the other hand, change things. The poll, while showing Ma with a 15% lead, also shows 41% of those polled have not made their decision. If Kosovo declares independence and is recognized by, among others, the United States, nationalist sentiments in Taiwan will be brought to the forefront and could give Hsieh the edge in the election. If that happens, China is likely to respond with force soon after, to avoid further moves towards independence.

For now, however, we can only watch and wait to know what happens next.