Russia recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Only a day after the Russian legislature unanimously approved a resolution in support of recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has responded by officially recognizing the breakaway states as independent countries. At the same time Russia's Navy is sending a ship near Georgia as Russia digs in around the Georgian port of Poti. This is in expectation of the arrival of an American naval deployment for humanitarian purposes. Whether the port moves into Batumi or attempts to move into Poti could determine how events play out. U.S. is reportedly planning to send aid to Poti though whether that is by ship or land is not clear. The potential for a naval standoff there could have increased as a result of Russia's recognition.

What happens next will be determined by the reactions of other countries. Belarus is one country which could recognize the two breakaway states. Members of Belarus' parliament have already called on the President of Belarus, Lukashenka, to follow Medvedev's lead and recognize the breakaway states. It is possible such recognition could be the next to follow. Armenia is also openly supportive of moves towards self-determination and has good relations with Russia leaving open potential recognition from them, though they may recognize Kosovo as well to protect their relations with the West.

However, it is likely the key event to follow in the coming days will be the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or SCO on August 28 and 29. The countries present will include member Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China. In addition observers to the meeting would include Iran, Pakistan, India, and Mongolia. China has already said the matter could be discussed with the members agreeing to a common position. Altogether ten nations would be present comprising nearly half the world's population. However, the chances of Russia's action receiving universal support are minimal.

While former Soviet republics in the group may support Russia and recognize the republics China, Iran, Pakistan, and India may be more reluctant as all have their own separatist movements to worry about. Mongolia has been developing better relations with the West and so may not wish to harm good relations. At the same time there are possibilities for recognition. Mongolia may decide to recognize the republics and also recognize Kosovo to avoid damaging relations with the West. Iran may attempt to use its recognition to show solidarity with Russia in the hopes that it will lead to increased support from Moscow despite secessionist threats from Kurds, Azeris, Arabs, and in Balochistan. India has very strong relations with Russia well above any other member, but they also have strong relations with the West with that leadership eager to improve relations there and fears of separatism in Kashmir. However, pressure from the parliament is a possibility as many parties are supportive of Russia in general. China has so far showed a very measured response to Russia's action and is probably not interested in sparking reactions in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Taiwan. At the same time China could consider its relations with Russia of such high priority as to justify recognition. However, the potential for China's recognition is considerably lower. Pakistan is the least likely country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with their strong Western relations and separatist movements in Balochistan there is little reason for Pakistan to follow Russia's lead, especially if China doesn't.

Outside of that group other nations with the potential to recognize include Syria, Venezuela, and Cuba, which have been very supportive of Russia's actions. Cuba seems particularly likely in light of Raul Castro's statement that South Ossetia was a historical part of Russia. Cuba and Venezuela together could lobby to great effect in South and Central America where they have allies in Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Chavez has also shown a remarkable amount of influence with Brazil pioneering together for greater South American integration. Other leftist leaders in South America have maintained good relations with Chavez and have been increasingly resistant to influence from Washington.

In Africa Algeria is a distinct possibility given both its strong ties with Russia and support of Western Sahara's independence. Libya is also a potential supporter given their moves towards Russia. Both nations together with Russia and Iran could exert considerable influence in other parts of Africa. Support from nations like Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia is also a possibility considering their favorable relations with Moscow. Malaysia also has good relations with Moscow including having their first astronaut sent up by Russia. Given their position on Kosovo it's possible recognition of Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia could be carried out simultaneously.

If Russia is able to successfully gain a considerable number of recognition for Abkhazia and South Ossetia they could use it to stake legitimacy to both their attack on Georgia and subsequent recognition. However to do so would effectively open Pandora's Box by showing Kosovo was not a unique case.