Saturday, August 9, 2008

Russia planning to launch massive attack

Numerous reports are talking about a force of about 4,000 troops coming by sea to land on Georgia's coast along with 6,000 troops planning on the ground. At the same time there are growing indications of a major impending assault on the Kodori Gorge as UN observers are being warned to leave the area.

Possibly in preparation for an offensive Russia appears to be setting up a naval blockade and is increasing bombing sorties into Georgia. The goal likely to dominate the sky, cut Georgia off from the sea, and ultimately make a major push into Georgia as a means of forcing a concession.

This could include an attack from Russian forces in Armenia, which risks brining Azerbaijan into the conflict. It is unlikely the U.S. will be able to remain out of this situation, though exactly how they would get involved remains to be seen. Deploying troops in Tblisi and Azerbaijan to prevent Russian advances is one distinct possibility.

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