Turkey's Spring Offensive

A report has come out from Turkish military sources that an offensive into Northern Iraq is being planned for mid-March. The operation would involve troops inside Turkey and others operating along the border with Iran and Iraq. Turkish Special Forces are expected to be used to destroy the remaining PKK presence in Iraq as a sort of final blow to the organization following months of air strikes.

Alongside this is the danger of PKK retaliating against Azerbaijan if Turkey should attack. In this regard recent comments by Press Secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s Press Service, Khazar Ibrahim, provide a glimpse into Azerbaijan's possible actions against the PKK:

“Firstly, Azerbaijan cannot independently control the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia, secondly Armenia is well-known as a country possessing wide experience in terrorism, thirdly the PKK is an active terrorist organization,” he said. According to Ibrahim, all this may bring significant harm to stability in the whole region. “ Azerbaijan, itself or in political contact with other states, may fight against the PKK in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he added.

Accusations have been made that around 56 PKK terrorists are in Nagorno-Karabakh and 50 in Lacin part of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia. If Azerbaijan comes under attack or Turkey attacks the PKK they may use this as a way of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh justifying an invasion as an "anti-terror" operation. Given Kosovo's declaration of independence this seems a likely possiblity.