Hezbollah Prepares for Regional War

At the funeral of Imad Mughniyah Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah gave out a chilling warning on his apparent assassination, claiming it was the work of Israel and that this was part of an "open war" between Hezbollah and Israel. Analysts are expecting Hezbollah to carry out a major attack against Israel in another country similar to how Mughniyah was assassinated in Damascus. One particular concern is expressed in the article of the Daily Star:

"Maybe this will become a security war, tit for tat," Saad-Ghorayeb said, or it could erupt into a regional conflict involving other states. Saad-Ghorayeb pointed out Nasrallah's "unprecedented" vow that Mughniyeh's death marks the beginning of a battle that will lead to the eradication of Israel.

"That implies that Nasrallah is talking about ... a wider regional war," she said, adding that Hizbullah might have interpreted Mughniyeh's killing as a desire on the part of Israel and the US to reignite a war against Hizbullah. In this context, Mottaki's presence at the funeral signals Iran's backing for whatever steps Hizbullah takes, she said.

Potential for a major war starting beyond Hezbollah is tremendous. Israel has hinted in the past that any future war with Hezbollah could entail a war with Damascus as well. This also comes at a time when increasingly there are worries about a full-on invasion of the Gaza Strip, which could be similar to the Second Lebanon War in difficulty and length, however, combined with a conflict with Syria and Hezbollah, it could be a war lasting months. The growth of Hezbollah's strength makes a future conflict with them far more deadly than the last and the inclusion of other parties complicates it further.

There are signs Hezbollah is already preparing for a conflict with Israel over its expected retaliation for Mughniyah's death:

Hizbullah has raised its alertness in southern Lebanon to a "high level" following Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah's threat to avenge Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh's assassination on Tuesday, which Nasrallah claimed Israel was responsible for.

According to the Lebanese newspaper, A-Saphir, Hizbullah has positioned roughly 50,000 "fighters" along the Lebanese-Israeli border.

Hizbullah also evacuated several political and social headquarters, the report said.

Such preparations indicate an attack and conflict is imminent and according to some sources may come a month from now. Such a conflict with Israel could be drawn into other complicated conflicts in Iraq and draw a response from Iran and subsequent attack against them by the United States.