Turkey invades Iraq

Turkey has launched a ground operation into Iraq. The operation is being carried out with U.S. and Iraqi approval with Turkey sending in as many as 10,000 soldiers. It seems they've decided to invade before spring in order to prevent the PKK from attacking in the spring.

The reaction of the Kurds in this matters is crucial:

Jabbar Yawar, a spokesman for Iraqi Kurdish security forces, said sporadic bombing was taking place in the border areas, but no casualties were reported.

Fouad Hussein, a spokesman for the semiautonomous Kurdish government in Iraq, said the Kurdish Peshmerga forces had been put on alert.

He said Iraqi Kurdish forces also had tightened security around bases housing Turkish military monitors operating in northern Iraq with permission from local authorities under a 1996 agreement.

"The government of Kurdistan ordered the Peshmerga forces to be on alert in fear of any Turkish incursion on Iraqi territory," he said, claiming that Turkish military monitors had tried to leave their bases in violation of the accord.

"Those troops tried to move out, but the Peshmerga forces forced them to return to their camps within half an hour," he said.

If Turkish troops come into conflict with Kurdish peshmerga it's likely to expand the situation to include a full-on conflict between Turkeys and the Kurdish government. However there are reports saying Barzani has ordered Kurds not to engage Turkish troops. Whether that will stand only time will tell.

Turkey's Spring Offensive

A report has come out from Turkish military sources that an offensive into Northern Iraq is being planned for mid-March. The operation would involve troops inside Turkey and others operating along the border with Iran and Iraq. Turkish Special Forces are expected to be used to destroy the remaining PKK presence in Iraq as a sort of final blow to the organization following months of air strikes.

Alongside this is the danger of PKK retaliating against Azerbaijan if Turkey should attack. In this regard recent comments by Press Secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s Press Service, Khazar Ibrahim, provide a glimpse into Azerbaijan's possible actions against the PKK:

“Firstly, Azerbaijan cannot independently control the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia, secondly Armenia is well-known as a country possessing wide experience in terrorism, thirdly the PKK is an active terrorist organization,” he said. According to Ibrahim, all this may bring significant harm to stability in the whole region. “ Azerbaijan, itself or in political contact with other states, may fight against the PKK in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he added.

Accusations have been made that around 56 PKK terrorists are in Nagorno-Karabakh and 50 in Lacin part of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia. If Azerbaijan comes under attack or Turkey attacks the PKK they may use this as a way of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh justifying an invasion as an "anti-terror" operation. Given Kosovo's declaration of independence this seems a likely possiblity.

Kosovo Declares Independence

Kosovo has declared its independence like it has been promising for months. Initial reactions have been calm, not unexpected, but there have been stern responses from Serbia and Russia:

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said that it "violates international order," and that Kosovo was a "false state."

"Kosovo will forever remain a part of Serbia," he said. "We do not recognize the forceful creation of this false state. We must support our countrymen in Kosovo."

"As long as the Serb people exist, Kosovo will be Serbia," he went on. Belgrade has ruled out the use of force to retake Kosovo, however.

Russia has called an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to address the issue, though it is likely to be ineffective at resolving the issue. Russia has also given a warning about the declaration:

"The decision of the leaders of Kosovo is fraught [with the danger of] an escalation in tensions and ethnic violence in the province, and new conflicts in the Balkans,"

A new conflict that could come into play is over Bosnia's Serb republic. Presently a dispute over Bosnia's constitution, police forces, and the unilateral independence of Kosovo have all sparked threats of a referendum on independence. A group of Serbian NGOs in Bosnia have already said they would call for the Serb Republic to have a referendum on independence. Such a call would be contingent on recognition by other countries.

Also the potential for this to expand beyond the Balkans was made abundantly clear by an appeal made by Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia's frequent warnings and hints about recognition make the Russian reaction uncertain, but should they recognize the two breakaway republics Georgia is likely to launch a conflict with Russia.

For now, it's dependent on Russia and Serbia's reaction as to what happens in the other areas.

Hezbollah Prepares for Regional War

At the funeral of Imad Mughniyah Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah gave out a chilling warning on his apparent assassination, claiming it was the work of Israel and that this was part of an "open war" between Hezbollah and Israel. Analysts are expecting Hezbollah to carry out a major attack against Israel in another country similar to how Mughniyah was assassinated in Damascus. One particular concern is expressed in the article of the Daily Star:

"Maybe this will become a security war, tit for tat," Saad-Ghorayeb said, or it could erupt into a regional conflict involving other states. Saad-Ghorayeb pointed out Nasrallah's "unprecedented" vow that Mughniyeh's death marks the beginning of a battle that will lead to the eradication of Israel.

"That implies that Nasrallah is talking about ... a wider regional war," she said, adding that Hizbullah might have interpreted Mughniyeh's killing as a desire on the part of Israel and the US to reignite a war against Hizbullah. In this context, Mottaki's presence at the funeral signals Iran's backing for whatever steps Hizbullah takes, she said.

Potential for a major war starting beyond Hezbollah is tremendous. Israel has hinted in the past that any future war with Hezbollah could entail a war with Damascus as well. This also comes at a time when increasingly there are worries about a full-on invasion of the Gaza Strip, which could be similar to the Second Lebanon War in difficulty and length, however, combined with a conflict with Syria and Hezbollah, it could be a war lasting months. The growth of Hezbollah's strength makes a future conflict with them far more deadly than the last and the inclusion of other parties complicates it further.

There are signs Hezbollah is already preparing for a conflict with Israel over its expected retaliation for Mughniyah's death:

Hizbullah has raised its alertness in southern Lebanon to a "high level" following Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah's threat to avenge Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh's assassination on Tuesday, which Nasrallah claimed Israel was responsible for.

According to the Lebanese newspaper, A-Saphir, Hizbullah has positioned roughly 50,000 "fighters" along the Lebanese-Israeli border.

Hizbullah also evacuated several political and social headquarters, the report said.

Such preparations indicate an attack and conflict is imminent and according to some sources may come a month from now. Such a conflict with Israel could be drawn into other complicated conflicts in Iraq and draw a response from Iran and subsequent attack against them by the United States.

Get Ready for the World to Change

American presidential candidates have been using the word change a lot and talking about this year being the "year of change" and they are definitely right, but it may not be the change they're wanting. Indeed, it's quite possible the world is on a war footing. Knowing that there are very significant changes developing throughout the world.

Iraq Becoming a Buffer State

According to news reports Iraqi ayatollah al-Sistani is lightening his workload, which may mean his health is worsening. At the same time Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is studying at a school in Najaf to become an ayatollah himself. His militia has been observing a ceasefire which is widely believed to be geared at actually building the power of his militia and removing sects of his militia which were carrying out sectarian killings. With Sistani fading from view it's possible a vacuum will be created in the Shiite clerical establishment and Sadr could fill it up or contest for it and bring with him a large army. To consolidate the military, religious, and political power in the country Sadr is also reaching out to Sunnis and rival Shiites. He's even reaching out to the secular Shiites led by Ayad Allawi.

At the same time a divide is growing between the Kurds and the Maliki government. Particularly divisive is the issue of Kirkuk's referendum on joining the Kurdish Regional Government. Kurds have been trying to get a referendum called on Kirkuk since a deadline passed last year. However, now Turks have declared the referendum invalid constitutionally since the deadline in the constitution has already passed. However, the Kurds have suggested that if Kirkuk is not resolved by the Iraqi government or UN they will unilaterally join the Kurdish Regional Government. Beyond Kirkuk there have been problems over oil and the peshmergas. The one problem with this dispute is the Kurds are not reconciling with other groups, meaning they're isolating themselves politically which could increase nationalist tendencies among Kurds, increased even further by Kosovo independence.

Still, some are suggesting the Kurds are planning to form a government with anti-Maliki forces. In the end, though, the same problems will continue to exist. These are aggravated even further by the actions of Iraqi Turks in Kirkuk. The Turks are allegedly tied in with Turkey and going by their request to prevent a referendum on Kirkuk. Such interference by Turkey may aggravate Kurdish nationalism, but foreign meddling also aggravates Iraqi nationalism. If Turkey launches a spring offensive against the PKK in Northern Iraq, it might provide the impetus needed to resolve these differences by cooling Kurdish nationalism and instilling Iraqi nationalism in Kurds.

Sadr emerging as an ayatollah at this same time could make him a major leader in Iraq by bringing together the various sects and ethnic groups against a foreign threat. Kurds, who may intially want to further nationalist goals, could see the support from various factions and welcome it. Among those who are possible allies of Sadr is Massoud Barzani, leader of the KDP, who has been fairly vocal against Maliki and his government. If President Talabani, leader of the other major Kurdish party PUK, stands by the government a split could emerge in the Kurdish alliance sounding the death knell for Kurdish nationalism.

If the U.S. and Maliki stand by and let Turkey invade, it would ultimately put the Kurds, Sadr, and Sunnis on the same page against Maliki and the U.S. A fall of the government would ultimately be followed by a unity government consisting of Sadrists, Kurds, Allawi's secular Shia, and Sunnis. It's possibly even SCIRI will break from Maliki and join a coalition led by Sadr's party. A united Iraqi military of various ethnic factions would form and finally they would order U.S. troops to leave Iraq.

Iraq from then on would serve as a buffer state between the Arab Gulf and Iran outside any nation's sphere of influence, an effectively neutral state. However, there could still be attempts at grabbing power in the nation and such power plays could result in military confrontations.

The Kosovo Powder Keg Detonates

Independence for Kosovo seems to be only a week away. On February 17th Kosovo is expected to declare its independence and then be recognized by maybe 100 countries. This will be followed up on February 18th with a move by the EU to send a peacekeeping force in. Despite pro-Western president Boris Tadic winning the presidential election things have not changed a great deal in Serbia. Tadic has spoken out against Kosovo independence and moves by the EU. Not only that he made a rather eerie warning:

At a time of great global turbulence, the precedent that would be established should Serbia be partitioned against its will...could in turn result in the escalation of many existing conflicts, the reactivation of a number of frozen conflicts and the instigation of who knows how many new conflicts

Not only are Serbs warning about the dangers, but a former Secretary of State under Bush Sr. and even John Bolton, former UN ambassador under the current Bush Administration. They're worried about the potential for violence in Kosovo and a greater dampening of relations with Russia.

For its part Russia is making reassuring comments towards not using Kosovo as a precedent, but like previous times the devil is in the details:

Russia is not going to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia the day after Kosovo's independence has been declared

Of course, the day after most likely will be the day it goes before the Security Council and the EU approves a mission to the province. So while the Western media uses this to calm fears of tension, it seems that's exactly how Russia expects them to react. The fact Russia is not saying they will not use Kosovo as a precedent, but instead saying they won't do so immediately is not very reassuring in the end.

Even without Russia it is possible Kosovo will ignite a conflict all the same. Serbia may be preparing to declare a Serb assembly in Kosovo. Such an assembly is likely to be part of a parallel government run by Serbia with its own security forces, social programs, and political leadership. This could ultimately lead to a conflict between Serbs and Albanians and bring in Serbia to defend Serbs.

Tadic has been put in a perilous position. There are suggestions that Serbia's ruling coalition will fall and parliamentary elections will be called soon. However, there's little chance Kosovo will let its independence be delayed any longer and so any elections would be heavily impacted by Kosovo's independence. Tadic may find his party and other pro-European democrats lose overwhelmingly to the nationalists and be forced to support a nationalist government. His only way to avoid this would be to concede to Kostunica's demands on the EU.

The timing of the EU deployment and Kosovo's independence may even turn popular opinion against the EU as they will come off not only as complicit as a group in Kosovo's independence, but also as spitting in Serbia's face. Tadic's only chance to prevent himself from becoming a lame duck is to concede to Kostunica on the EU. Tadic will also be in the difficult position of after Kosovo's independence dealing with Srpska's desire for the same. Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serb entity, is believed to be planning an independence declaration of his own in response to Kosovo and since Dodik came out in support of Tadic during the election and Bosnian Serbs, who overwhelming support independence, vote for Tadic he could not simply ignore their quest for independence, because it may cost him Dodik's crucial support.

So it's quite possible even with Tadic in power that events will play out all the same in Serbia. Tadic's warning also rings true for many in the world, and it will likely be unheeded.

War in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea have been building up their forces for months and now it seems the only thing standing in the way of war is stepping aside. Eritrea has been restricting UN peacekeepers in Eritrea from fuel supplies and now it appears they are going to have to leave the volatile border zone for Ethiopia. UN forces however plan on staying as long as conceivably possible because they have one grave fear:

The U.N. cannot afford to leave because it would create the conditions for a resumption of the conflict.

Indeed, it is quite possible this is true as hundreds of thousand of troops, Ethiopian and Eritrean, are facing each other along the border and only a trigger pull away from renewed war. However, this war may be a broader and more deadly conflict than those before it. A sign of this was in a recent attack on Ethiopians in the Puntland region of Somalia. The reasons are unknown, but it could be connected to the Islamic Courts Union, but there are other possibilities. One not entertained is possible attacks by those in Puntland opposed to Somaliland independence. Ethiopia has been giving plenty of signs that they would recognize Somaliland independence while the U.S. has said they'd wait for a move by the African Union. It's possible Ethiopia's increasing support for Somaliland is the real cause of this attack, which could mean Puntland is moving out of Ethiopia's sphere of influence.

There are other worries in Southern Somalia. As the battle between Ethiopia and the Islamic resistance rages on the transitional government put in power by Ethiopia could be on the verge of a collapse. At the same time the Islamic Courts Union is uniting with other Islamic movements to push for a united front against Ethiopia. The ICU receives the backing of Eritrea.

A Puntland shift away from Ethiopia in light of an Ethiopian shift towards Somaliland could be seized on by Eritrea to further challenge Ethiopia's position in the Horn of Africa. If Eritrea can create enough problems they could force Ethiopia to commit more of its military force to Somalia and with U.N. peacekeepers leaving the border, Eritrea may use the opportunity to end the border dispute by force.

Civil War in Nepal Sparks a Regional War

While recognizing the right of Nepali citizens to decide the fate of the monarchy, Nepal's King Gyanendra has spoken out against plans to establish a republic after elections. Citing polls showing a majority of people in Nepal support the monarchy the King has warned attempts to take him out of a power would be illegal. The potential for a coup attempt by the King has re-emerged despite belief that he was accepting an end to his rule. If the Nepalese government follows through on its plan to remove the King, he could try to remove them, a dangerous move which could result in a civil war.

Another potential for civil war has emerged in the south or Madhesh region of Nepal or Terai. Madheshis seeking greater autonomy or even independence have formed a common front.

Mahanta Thakur the president of Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party said the following about the goals of the new front:

Ensuring compulsory(no matter they win or lose) 50 per cent representation of Madhesi population in the constituent assembly, recruiting Madhesis in the Nepal Army, addressing the demands of the armed Madhesi outfits are some of the major demands forwarded by the Madhesi population

To meet their goals the Madheshis are calling for a major civil action. Their plan is to completely blockade Nepal from the South, preventing any traffic from going through Terai to Khtamandu the capital. Not only that Madheshi leaders are calling for the closure of all schools, factories, shops and transports, closing all trade points with India and even called for Madheshis to stop paying taxes. Such a boycott and blockade could not go on ignored by the Nepali government and they may resort to force and bring potential for civil war, which the King could use to prevent his removal from power.

At the same time the situation with Bhutan has seen a major problem emerge as Bhutanese communists have declared their intent to launch an insurgency against the Bhutanese government. The communists are from a splinter group of a Nepali-based organization of Bhutanese refugees. This refugee crisis is another major tipping point in Nepal and Bhutan is afraid if they are relocated they may launch a broader insurgency. The area between Nepal and Bhutan is particularly dangerous area as it forms a choke point for India between its main landmass and a landlocked region plagued by secessionist groups. So not only is the refugee crisis in Nepal and Bhutan, it could be a problem in India if there are any attempts by refugees to break through Nepal's border and move into Bhutan.

Conditions are made even worse by Chinese activity in the area. China has been building up its forces near the tri-junction area of Nepal and Bhutan, and has made demands for India to remove bunkers on the border of Sikkim. Not only that but China has condemned a remark by India's Prime Minister, claiming the region of Arunachal Pradesh belonged to India. India further escalated tensions by deploying 6,000 troops to the region near Bhutan and China's border from Jammu and Kashmir despite an increase in activity by Islamic terrorists.

A crisis in Nepal could invite intervention by China or India and may aggravate the situation in the tri-junction area and Arunachal Pradesh. This could spark a war between the two nations with unforseeable results. However, it is quite likely neither side will let things get too out of hand.

Rise in American Imperialism

Ongoing primaries in the United States signal a major change in the United States, one which will determine the future of American foreign relations. The lack of focus on national security in the previous month kept Giuliani from breaking through and he lost the potential to win the nomination. Instead he got behind John McCain, an outspoken critic of Russia and President Vladimir Putin. With Romney suspending his campaign the only major candidates left are Huckabee and Paul. The only thing holding McCain back is if the two remaining candidates are able to send McCain into a brokered convention.

For now his success is hinging on primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and DC on February 12th. If he fails to succeed in any of them and especially if he loses to Ron Paul in any of them, with DC the most likely place for that to happen, McCain could be looking at the long haul and a brokered convention could easily end with Huckabee or maybe even Paul, whose campaign claims far more delegates than those given by the media, upsetting him. In order to avoid this McCain would have to see a major focus on national security to bolster him, now that Giuliani, the only other national security candidate, is backing him.

With Kosovo's independence set for February 17th it's possible a conflict will erupt before March, where big states like Texas and Ohio are holding primaries. Texas could play well for Huckabee and his social conservatism and Paul has the advantage of a favorite son, meaning he could win a lot of delegates there. Yet, if a foreign policy question comes up McCain could use it to propel himself to a major win on March 4th, effectively clinching the nomination. Social conservatives who would have gone to Huckabee will be worried more about a strong Commander-in-Chief and McCain is conservative enough to satisfy. Ron Paul's calls for non-interventionism are sure to fall on deaf ears since he will ultimately point out how previous interventions by the United States created the problem, something most voters will dismiss and even be insulted by the idea. McCain's conservative critics will immediately set aside their differences with McCain on illegal immigration and global warming fearing a Democratic president will become the Neville Chamberlain of the 21st Century.

On the Democratic side Obama has been on the warpath. After an uncertain performance on Super Tuesday, Obama has begun racking up states like Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine. Potomac Primaries of Maryland, Virginia, and DC all look incredibly well for Obama. Major victories in those three states with Wisconsin and Hawaii the only states left in that month could give Obama incredibly momentum which might carry through for him on March 4th, Hillary's only chance to stop Obama. If Obama can secure wins in all four of the states on March 4th it makes him the presumptive nominee and could even give him the delegates needed to clinch the nomination should he rack up significant endorsements from superdelegates in that time.

To most media pundits an Obama nomination means an Obama presidency, but if the debate shifts to foreign policy this becomes thrown into doubt. Hillary is perceived as stronger on national security and is the most hawkish of the Democrats who've run in this election cycle. Obama is for engaging other nations diplomatically and even believes in meeting all kinds of leaders of so-called Rogue States in the first year of his presidency, which drew a lot of criticism from Hillary.

Obama also faces a racial problem in getting elected. It is not that white voters will not go for him, but instead that Latinos may not vote for him. John McCain's stance on immigration, as unpopular as it may be, stands a good chance of swinging Latino voters in his favor. In fact, the Latino vote matches up well with McCain as many are social conservatives, who are for sweeping immigration reform, and more tough on national security. Also in every primary so far Obama has done poorly among Latino voters and the only caucus he lost was in Nevada, with a high Latino population.

McCain winning the Latino vote would be a major upset and his stance on global warming will appeal to many Democrats and environmentalists. McCain has also blocked any third party moves by Bloomberg and Conservatives since he can meet the criteria both were aiming for in this election. Ralph Nader also could face problems running since both candidates will be strong on Global Warming, though he may further erode votes from Obama.

In a debate McCain would be able to call Obama an appeaser and appeal to fears of the American public about the great Russian threat, among others, and paint Obama as a naive youth who will surrender to tyranny. Terrorism need not be an issue as the concerns of the American public will be about bigger fish in the world. A call by an Iraqi government for U.S. troops to leave could mean the issue of Iraq disappears, getting rid of a large amount of Democratic voters. McCain is also very appealing to Democrats and Independents so he may be able to win Democratic states such as Pennsylvania and Maryland.

A McCain victory could be inevitable at this point and his success would mean the success of an American imperial agenda. McCain's beliefs on national security are that there's need for completely revamping the CIA and turning into an OSS-style intelligence organization, building a "league of democracies" to oppose Russian and Chinese influence, and maintaining a troop presence throughout the world, maybe expanding it. Far from seeking reconciliation with Russia, McCain will increase pressure on them and form an alliance against Russia.

So with conflicts waging all over the world and others set to begin, the U.S. may find itself on a war footing and seeking to expand its control throughout the world, rather than receding. The end of many old hatreds and forging of new alliances would set the stage for a showdown between the East and the West, one which could have disastrous implications for those caught in between.