Is Japan Still A Friend?

For decades in the Cold War Japan was seen as the U.S.'s strongest ally against communism in Asia. In part this was because the alliance was forced and now that Japan is freeing themselves and forging an "independent foreign policy"they are moving away from that policy.

That independent foreign policy has taken a shift away from the U.S. In fact, Shinzo Abe has not made one single visit to the U.S. Without that basic reinforcement of relations the comments from Japanese defense minister on the Iraq War are much more scathing. What's more the Democratic congress has been fairly assertive, in general, particularly against Japan. The recent resolution on "comfort women" in Korea during Japanese occupation could lead to a huge downturn in U.S.-Japanese relations.

Even worse, the agreement on North Korea has neglected the views of Japan on the abduction issue and pushed the Korean peninsula towards a negotiated reunification, putting a unified Korea strongly in Chinese courts, a unified Korea that will also likely have by then the means to build an aircraft carrier and may end up retaining North Korean nuclear weapons.

It's understandable, then, that Japan would be worried about our alliance with them, in spite of pushes towards deeper alliance. Japan's move towards a more aggressive and independent foreign policy compounded with possible worsening of American relations could throw Japan into Russia's good graces. Should Japan and Russia resolve the dispute over the Kuril islands. This had recently led to an uptick in tensions between the two, but Abe has made it clear he wishes to resolve the issue.

Some steps towards a resolution could be seen as Japan becomes increasingly reliant on Russian energy. In fact, Russian Gazprom is working with Japanese natural gas companies to develop new technology. Not only that but Russia has approved an oil pipeline from Eastern Siberia to the Pacific, in order to supply Japan with oil and intends to have it finished by 2012. Russia is even working to enrich uranium for Japan's nuclear power plants. Both the natural gas and nuclear deals are working through Gazprom and Atomprom, which are both controlled by Russia's government.

Japan's thirst for energy may lead to an expansion of Japanese relations with Iran. Japan has already stated that they won't sacrifice their oil deals with Iran because of sanctions. Oddly, while a great deal of attention is given to China's ties with Iran, Japan still receives much of its oil imports from Iran. In fact, Iran is its third major source and a fourth of Iran's oil exports go to Japan.

Not only is Japan pushing towards Iran, but also India. Out of a desire to counter China's growing strength Japan is searching for stronger ties with India. A similar desire motivates Japan's Russian relations. Relations with India are being used by Japan to do more than counter China, though. Japan can secure a stronger position for itself globally by expanding into India's massive markets. Also, cooperating together, Japan and India could make moves on reducing Chinese influence in Southeast Asia.

Should the United State Congress pressure Japan on past war crimes and the revising of history textbooks, it could lead to a downturn in Japanese-American relations. As Japan moves closer to India and Russia and looks to expand its energy resources, the country could begin moving into the Russian axis.

The dangers there are obvious. A remilitarized Japan, a resurgent Russia, and the growing powers of Iran and India, put together make a deadly combination. This is not even to consider their economic clout. Japan and Russia have the second and third largest cash reserves respectively. Together with India they'd have combined reserves of $1.2 trillion.

Japan, looking to remilitarize, could consider the Russian Su PAK FA a viable aircraft should the JSF not be given to them. While unspeakable now, Japanese involvement in the project could be a huge boon and lead to it emerging as a fighter even greater than the F-22. India, Japan, and Russia also have one common enemy: China. Russia has tried to woo China for all it's worth, but ultimately China has shown little interest in doing anything more than purchasing some Russian weapons and energy and expanding economic relations. There are no indications China is looking at Russia in anticipation of some great alliance against the West, since China actually strongly values its ties with the West.

If Japan thinks America is moving towards aligning with China and starts pressuring Japan to make concession to the Chinese, Japan may finally snub the U.S. and turn from friend to foe.