Subtle buildup to Second Karabakh War?

While the talk of war has been heating up over the past year a number of signs seem to indicate such a development may be near at hand. In Armenia Major General Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan has noted Azerbaijan's buildup of ammunition and threats of war as a sign that war is highly probable, but says he does not believe it would extend to Armenia itself given its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

The strongest signs of war, however, are coming from Azerbaijan. Referring to a meeting there with President Aliyev a spokesman for the Defense Ministry praised the military's capabilities saying it would easily defeat Armenia in a new war, and displayed a desire for the military option to be used to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Aliyev was paraphrased as saying the reason for not resorting to force is the hope internationally-mediated negotiations could resolve the issue peacefully, but the spokesman says the talks have proved fruitless on this matter leaving no other option but the use of force. This could be the military putting increasing pressure on Aliyev for the use of military force or indicate a decision to use military force has already been made. With the former there is still cause to believe a war may be imminent as Aliyev could find himself bowing to pressure from the military.

International pressure, in addition to domestic pressure, may cause Azerbaijan to take action against Nagorno-Karabakh. While the U.S. has largely supported Azerbaijan's stance on Nagorno-Karabakh it has also been pushing for a reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia. This effort at bettering ties has greatly strained Azerbaijan's relationship with the U.S. and Turkey, its two most important allies in the region. Despite the negotiations between Armenia and Turkey being called off it likely still leaves Azerbaijan feeling isolated and without stalwart allies, giving them all the more reason to act on their own.

One more potential sign of trouble in the region is a recent initiative by Nagorno-Karbakh to lobby foreign states for recognition. Done with the active encouragement of Armenia it creates another possible point of conflagration. While recognition is not likely to be forthcoming from many countries, should it succeed in persuading a single country it could be taken by Azerbaijan as a casus belli. This would still give Armenia room to accuse Azerbaijan of unprovoked invasion since it would be a third country responding to a direct request from Nagorno-Karabakh as opposed to recognition from Armenia or at Armenia's request. It also prepares the ground for recognition should Azerbaijan instead strike over dissatisfaction with the stalemate in talks.

Regardless of who sparks off a conflict these correlating events could indicate a war is soon to erupt in the region that will once again draw the attention and concern of the world to the Caucasus and inevitably, Russia.