Middle Eastern War likely by year's end

Tensions are building every day in the Middle East. It has reached a point where another major conflict is likely and one could commence later this month or in October. Such a war would be certain to be unlike any other in recent history and its quite likely it would result in the use of nuclear weapons by Israel. The current situation is riddled with potential land mines.

Gaza and Israel

The true between Hamas and Israel has held steady despite expectations of its collapse, however the situation could be approaching a breaking point. The truce has remained in place largely due to every violation of the truce involving rocket attacks by Palestinian militant groups other than Hamas being responded to with merely a closure of the border. While some time these attacks injure, but there have not been deaths resulting from them. However, that is becoming increasingly less certain. One attack involved explosions along the border of Gaza near Israeli army patrols. No injuries resulted from the attack but the potential for a major escalation was clear. A single solider's death could have been enough to break the ceasefire.

Even without deaths there are reports the Israeli military and some Israeli officials intend to violate the ceasefire themselves. This demonstrates the continued resistance to Olmert's agreed ceasefire and fears of it being a concession that only allows Hamas to build up its military force even more.

Another potential flashpoint would actually involve Fatah either in the West Bank or Gaza. With Hamas calling on its members to resist attempts at arrest by Fatah with any forceful means needed. Such a situation could risk sparking an all-out uprising against Fatah in the West Bank. Such a situation could instigate a Fatah uprising against Hamas in Gaza. If it ends up involving Israelis in either area it could draw the IDF into Gaza. In addition the armed wing of Fatah suggested the opportunity for the ceasefire will end by the end of the month. This could mean the group attempts to launch an attack from Gaza to bring an end to the ceasefire. If organized by Fatah's political wing it could be intended as a way of eliminating Hamas as a threat.

The other chink in the truce's armor is the negotiation over Gilad Shalit. Israel has been pushing hard for his release and the negotiations are seen as part of the overall ceasefire. Negotiations have focused on securing his release in a prisoner exchange between the two sides. The negotiations, however, have faltered recently with Hamas suggesting the talks start from the beginning and this time with a greater amount of prisoners demanded for release in exchange for Shalit's release.

In addition to this Hamas has placed three conditions on Israel for renewing the negotiations which include:

1. Release of all Palestinian prisoners whose names appear on the list that had been given to Israel via Egyptian mediation
   
2. Implementation of all Israeli commitments in the framework of the ceasefire agreement, including the reopening of Gaza Strip crossings for the passage of goods
3. the opening of the Rafah crossing.

In addition Hamas has begun pressuring Egypt to release prisoners as well. Altogether such actions could dissuade Israel from continuing the negotiations and instead pushing for launching a military rescue operation, which would be certain to end the ceasefire.

As all these events require the government to take such action in response, however Olmert may yet resist such moves. However, here again the situation seems to favor renewed conflict as Olmert is set to resign from his post as Prime Minister. While he will likely remain until a replacement is chosen that may not be long in waiting as Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has been chozen as leader of his Kadima party. While she is not the most hardline member who ran her position on the Gaza truce is that any violations should see a military response, meaning the ceasefire will most likely unravel. Another development which could see a harder line is if Livni made her firebrand opponent Shaul Mofaz Defense Minister. Such an appointment would greatly increase pressure on Livni to take military action in response to violations of the ceasefire. It also increases the likelihood of direct attack on Iran or a conflict with Hezbollah. Even if she does not manage to form a government it is likey the more hardline Likud could take power, though an election would likely delay any such event for over three months.

Hezbollah and Lebanon

Lebanon's flashpoints have been brewing for some time. Yet warnings are increasing that Hezbollah may take action against Israel over the death of Imad Mugniyeh as soon as the end of September either involving assassinations and kidnappings of Israeli officials, including military officers, or bombings of embassies and consulates.

Another conflagration could be military in nature with the shoot down of an Israeli aircraft flying over Lebanese airspace, in violation of the UN ceasefire, or the seizure of the Shebaa Farms. Either action would be seen in Lebanon as politically legitimate, especially the shoot down of an Israeli fighter, and as such allow them to accuse Israel of being the aggressor. It is likely a new, more hardline government would give them justification for greater attacks by responding with force themselves. However, the spread of Hezbollah's organization and increasing support and clout within Lebanon and the Lebanese military could lead to a war with Hezbollah being a war with Lebanon itself. As Hezbollah has greatly increased its own strength the combination with the Lebanese military would make a war far more deadly for Israel than the 2006 war.

In fact, reflecting the dangers of the current situation Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned of what a future conflict would bring:

Hizbullah Chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah warned Monday that if Israel "launches a war against Lebanon, Syria, Iran or Gaza, it will have thousands of scores to settle", adding that such a conflict would have "unclear implications for the Zionists."

This most likely means any war will result in a massive conflict involving all the above parties and a major push into Israel itself. Reports that Hezbollah has built its own naval force and assisting in Hamas in doing the same raises the stakes of war even higher. With its rocket capability, its anti-air, anti-tank, and anti-ship missiles, in addition to a working naval force with warships and the assistance of Syria, Hamas, and Iran a new conflict would leave Israel's cities, seas, and air in terror from the onslaught launched against them.

Northern Iraq

The last major source of tension is in Northern Iraq. Currently a standoff between the Iraqi government under Maliki and the Kurds has reached the point where the government is trying to cut off exports from the Kurdish Regional Government and is warning Kurdish troops in Diyala province to withdraw in eight days or likely face a direct confrontation. Following his actions against the Shiite militias Maliki has become increasingly aggressive against other forces outside his authority. However, a battle with the Kurds may be more than he can chew.

This also runs into the renewal of authorization for Turkish incursions into Northern Iraq. With Turkey openly acknowledging their cooperation with Iran against the PKK it would be no surprise should Turkey take joint action against Northern Iraq with Iran. A civil war in Iraq with the Kurds could be taken as a perfect opportunity. Any conflict in the north involving Iran could end up causing a conflict with the United States, which is certain to spread.

With this assortment of potential conflicts there seems a strong chance of conflict erupting.