Turkey withdraws from Iraq as spring comes

A few days ago Turkey announced its withdrawal from Northern Iraq. The withdrawal ultimately was not the end of Turkish actions as the Turkish Army says similar operations could be carried out at a later time. If anything, the invasion was intended to show the Kurds and PKK that Turkey is serious in its threats and will not hesitate to launch an attack.

The big factor in whether Turkey launches another operation depends on whether the PKK is able to continue attacks against Turkey when the spring comes. If that happens another operation is likely. While official reports might lead one to believe the operation was a major success a crucial issue was brought up by the Turkish military's statement:

The PKK's heartland, the Zap region near the Turkish-Iraqi border, has been targeted in the offensive, the Army statement also said, contrary to earlier media reports that the PKK bases in the Qandil Mountains, located about 150 kilometers away from the border, would be rooted out. The number of the PKK terrorists in Iraqi territories is estimated about 3.000. The PKK is mostly located in Barzani areas and Mesut Barzani group has been giving clear support to the PKK although the PKK is considered as terrorist organization by the United States, Iraq and Turkey.

Those mountain bases may still be inaccessible at this time of the year so this may be the reason bases were not targeted. According to the head of a Turkish think tank, Dr. Sedat Laciner, Turkish troops will be returning in the next few weeks. This likely will be as soon as the snow melts and ultimately lead to an attack on the Kandil Mountains. While the Kurdish government stepped down from conflict, they may not tolerate a second invasion.