A War Put on Hold

Two significant events have taken place to delay a conflict in the Middle East and Europe. The biggest delay is a Memorandum of Understanding signed in August 7 while the other is a minor delay in Kosovo from what was previously mentioned as Kosovo's Independence Day.

A delay to a conflict in Iraq was secured between Iraq and Turkey over the Kurdish north. However, this delay is set to last only two months. It is likely that this delay was meant to allow Turkey time to establish its government after recent elections. After approving the recent government the Turkish parliament is set to reconvene on October 1st. This effectively gives Iraq's government the month of September to resolve any disputes. However, Iraq's government is going to have plenty on its plate. An upcoming report by General Petraeus is already being speculated on as to what it will declare has happened and suggest in the future. Especially after another report concluded the Iraqi government has failed to meet nearly all of its benchmarks. One important benchmark is an oil law.

With Petraeus expected to request partial withdrawal of troops the pressure on Iraq is expected to increase. In a frenzy to satisfy the U.S. Iraqi lawmakers will rush to meet many of the demands of the United States and are unlikely to consider Turkey's interests. Also Iraq's has become government deeply divided over numerous domestic issues and Maliki is now beholden to Kurdish parties to secure his position in government. Maliki can't afford to lose their support at a crucial period when U.S. lawmakers are openly calling for Maliki's ouster. Kurds in the government are already saying they do not support fighting the PKK and so it's unlikely the PKK will be stopped by Iraq.

However, recently it seems while Turkey has reduced conflict with the Kurds, Iran has stepped up its actions in the North. The report also details apparent PUK support for the Iranian incursions. The PUK is headed by Jalal Talabani, the president of Iraq, a staunch ally of Maliki. Maliki's Dawa party is part of the United Iraqi Alliance which includes the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, both parties with deep Iran ties. This apparent conflict of interests between Talabani and fellow Kurds has the potential to lead to another Kurdish civil war if the PUK supports and joint Turkish-Iranian invasion of Northern Iraq. Maliki's government aiding such an operation is only going to lead to increased calls for his ouster and it is likely that the Kurdish Alliance will split between PUK and KDP with Barzani, President of the Kurdish Regional Government joining the opposition. While this event has been delayed there is a good chance the delay will only last to early October.

Kosovo's independence on the other hands has been delayed to after December 10 and the inevitable conclusion is all but acknowledged. News channels are even displaying a countdown to the end of negotiations over Kosovo's status. The conclusion being naturally apparent to everyone it appears preparations for independence and the ensuing war is going on across Europe. One bill recently proposed in Armenia intends to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. While this was opposed by the government it was only because they said such recognition need a "serious foundation" which could be independence of Kosovo.

In addition to the legislation Azerbaijan is reporting tensions along the border of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenian forces. This is just another in a series of increasing tensions around these unrecognized republics. Similar tensions are going on along Kosovo's border which Serbia has used to justify an increased military presence on its side of the border. The possible dual implications aren't lost as Serbia's Prime Minister threatened last week to take any means to prevent the secession of Kosovo, undoubtedly referring to war.

To further legitimize Kosovo's independence the U.N. has called for elections to be held on November 17th just in time for a new government to take power before a declaration of independence. In fact, a delay in the process may be directly related to the need for some leeway as Kosovo builds its government.

The effort of politicians may have delayed conflict, but it seems war is still inevitable.