Reviving the Kosovo precedent

Abkhazia and South Ossetia have officially appealed to Russia for recognition and major rallies were organized in both separatist republics. The rally in South Ossetia was even followed by a performance by St Petersburg’s Marinsky Orchestra, led by conductor Valery Gergiev, a major conductor with the London Philharmonic. The rally in Abkhazia was reported to include up to 50,000 people, potentially as much as a third of their population though this suggests some exaggeration. All the same with such a massive outpouring of support it is likely it will be taken as an indicator of how the people in Abkhazia feel about independence and influence an upcoming legislative session and the opinion of the Russian president.

One lingering question on such a move for independence is how other countries will react. Russia likely doesn't want to be the only country to recognize the breakaway states putting them in a Northern Cyprus-style situation. However, potential support could come from Russian allies. Some of those allies would be in the CSTO, including Belarus whose recognition would be needed to bring Abkhazia into the Union of Russia and Belarus as several reports suggest will ultimately be the plan for eventually merging it with Russia with South Ossetia either opting for the same path or moving immediately to reunify with North Ossetia in the Russian Federation.

Several countries have shown a rather vigorous line in support of Russia, which could lead to them recognizing the breakaway republics. In the case of Cuba President Raul Castro attacked Georgia for its invasion of South Ossetia and defended Russia's action. In addition Castro suggested Georgia has no legitimate claim to South Ossetia and even said the republic was historically a part of Russia. This suggests Cuban recognition could be a possibility. Also in Latin America Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said his country "stands with Russia" on the conflict and has been making vigorous moves to woo Russia. This could mean at least two other countries willing to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Chavez could bring on his other allies in the region like Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua.

Another possible supporter could be found with Syria. The Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has made a recent overture to Russia in the hopes of getting better weapons. Assad noted Israeli support for Georgia and stated Syria's strong support for Russia in the conflict. Should Russia recognize the breakaway states Syria may follow suit as a sign of support for Russia. With more than one state recognizing the republics it could push other countries to join as well, particularly in the Former Soviet Union. One interesting country to look at would be Armenia. They have strong ties with Russia, but also have well-established ties with the West and Georgia, in fact most evacuations from Georgia went through Armenia. Armenia may not want to lose their ties with Georgia and the West, but at the same time want to support Russia. Armenia could decide to recognize the breakaway republics and Kosovo to try and satisfy both sides. The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to be raised either during such recognition discussions or after which will be sure to aggravate ties with Azerbaijan. How Azerbaijan would react to Armenia's decision could determine if Nagorno-Karabakh is the next frozen conflict to thaw.

In the end, should Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia it will likely bring back the fear of the Kosovo precedent and increase the chances of it spreading.

Russia moves to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The Federation Council of Russia has called an emergency session for Monday August 25, 2008 to discuss recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both separatist republics have given renewed calls for recognition following the conflict with Georgia and Dmitry Medvedev has made it clear Russia would guarantee whatever decision is reached by the people of the republics. Pro-independence demonstrations set for today are likely meant to show the popular support for independence and, at least in the case of South Ossetia, unification with Russia. Medvedev would argue that Georgia has lost a right to rule the region and that the government and people have made clear their desire, likely adding in the previous referendums. One manner in which Russia seeks to defend its actions will almost certainly be invoking Kosovo as a precedent. Of course, this risks inflaming the other frozen conflicts in the region and creating the very precedent Russia warned about before.

There is also one other angle to this action as stated by the Abkhaz Foreign Minister:

Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics will provide for establishing bilateral relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, concluding treaties on military cooperation without taking account of third-party countries, and develop economic contacts basing on the legitimate law.

This could effectively mean the basing of Russian troops being provided for under agreement with the two republics. It would also allow Russia to stick to its pledge to pull out all but 500 troops from Georgia by arguing the two republics are no longer part of Georgia and therefore they are not violating any agreement. It is likely then that these 500 troops would be intended for a buffer zone being set up around both republics. This buffer zone also includes a no-fly zone for all non-Russian aircraft.

At the same time the U.S. would be provided with additional reason to re-arm Georgia which is already sparking a reaction from Russia. Russia is threatening not only to cancel its military relationship and considerably chill relations with the U.S. and NATO over these efforts, but is also warning it may shift its policy on Iran. That shift could involve removing its support for further sanctions, increasing arms sales to Iran, and potentially down the line inviting it to join the CSTO or some other form of collective defense as a way of deflecting an attack from the U.S. or Israel.

The conflict in Georgia is also beginning to have a serious impact on the political situation in Ukraine. President Yushchenko is accusing Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of treason for allegedly moderating her response to the conflict in Georgia in exchange for Russia's support in the 2010 presidential election against Yushchenko. If Yushchenko goes so far as to charge Tymoshenko with treason it would likely spark a major political crisis as it could mean her removal as Prime Minister. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are the two former leaders of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and while they have had disputes in the past a move to have Tymoshenko tried for treason, when she poses the greatest political threat to the president, would be certain to spark mass protests by her supporters. It would also likely bring out pro-Russian protests that would quickly turn to protests against not only Yushchenko, but also NATO membership and the government's increasing moves towards the West.

How Yushchenko responds to this would be the deciding factor in the later development of events. During the crisis in 2007 Yushchenko resorted to using the security forces but nearly came into conflict with other Ukrainian security forces. If Yushchenko uses security forces against pro-Russian protests, potentially arguing it's a Russian-backed coup attempt or Russian-backed separatist action, the backlash would be considerable. An outbreak of unrest by Russian sympathizers in the East and South supported by pro-Russian security forces could send Ukraine spiraling into a civil war. One area which would likely have massive protests or unrest sparked by pro-Russian groups would be in Crimea. Recent reports suggest Russia might be distributing passports in Sevastopol where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based and could potentially be getting distributed in the Crimea as well.

In such an event of unrest and conflict in the Crimea, which would likely spread to other parts of Ukraine, Russia could argue for it's intervention in the region to protect Russian citizens and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. If Yushchenko begins carrying out a violent crackdown on pro-Russian unrest it could serve to delegitimize him in the West. Moreover if this unrest is a result of him removing Tymoshenko for alleged treason it would further damage his image making Western intervention less likely. Russia would thus be able to stoke a pro-Russian separatist movement in Southern and Eastern Ukraine to justify massive intervention and also serve to greatly weaken Ukraine's ability to resist as it would leave Ukraine's military force divided.

Such a development would allow Russia to divide Ukraine in half and reduce it to a helpless shell of a nation with the pro-Russian half splitting off an unifying with Russia. Together with the removal and annexation of the breakaway territories in Georgia the move would effectively eliminate the threat of NATO challenging Russia in the Black Sea and allowing it to maintain its presence there indefinitely and even increase it.

Russia imposing ceasefire terms on Georga, other conflicts in the wings

Despite agreeing to a ceasefire Russian troops continue to conduct operations in Georgia. Russia is also making clear that it will not allow Georgia the opportunity to retake the breakaway regions. Russia has said it will not allow Georgian forces to return to South Ossetia, even as peacekeepers. Russia's operations in Gori and Poti indicate Russia has no intention of allowing Georgia to maintain a significant military force with which it could attack the breakaway states.

In and around Gori Russian troops were removing weapons from the area in an effort to create a demilitarized zone. In Poti Russian troops have reportedly entered the city several times to blow up ships of the Georgian navy and coast guard. One case involved Russian troops, apparently dressed as peacekeepers, seizing a military outpost near the port and removing equipment. Russuan troops have also been reportedly destroying airfields and army facilities, as well as roads. They were also reported to have destroyed an important rail bridge to Tblisi, though it was denied by Russian officials. Russian military officials do, however, acknowledge the continuing operations against Georgia are aimed at weakening the Georgian military so as to prevent further attacks against Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

By eliminating most of Georgia's military infrastructure and destroying much of their weaponry, or removing it, Russia will insure that for the next few months Georgia will be unable to respond to Russian actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia allowing them to enforce a status settlement. Abkhazia has already grown defiant of Georgia by declaring they will not negotiate with Georgia without recognition. Russia has also become a more adamant backer of the breakaway states, even saying they will not recognize Georgia's territorial integrity. President Dmitry Medvedev has called for Abkhazia and South Ossetia to decide on whether to secede, possibly signaling another referendum on independence. A new referendum, most likely in favor of independence, could then be followed by Russian recognition and recognition from other Russian allies.

However, another dispute between Georgia and Abkhazia is emerging over territorial boundaries. Abkhaz forces pushed to the Inguri River bridge and planted a flag, claiming the river was their natural border. To reinforce their claim Abkhaz troops, backed by Russian forces, seized 13 Georgian villages and a power station along the river. Georgia officials described the push as a shift of Abkhazia's administrative borders. The likely aim of these post-truce operations is to force a settlement where Abkhazia and South Ossetia are able to gain independence while EU monitors in a demilitarized zone along the borders of the territories prevent any Georgian military response. Abkhazia's deployment along the Inguri River also allows them to annex a previously undisputed part of Georgian territory.

The situation in Georgia has begun to impact another frozen conflict in Transnistria. In response to the conflict in Georgia the Transnistria government has broke off its ties with Moldova. However, Russia would have more difficulties dealing with Transnistria as Romania's president has said "Transnistria is not Ossetia" suggesting they may rush to Moldova's aid in the event of Russian attack. Not only could Russia face the unappealing prospect of fighting a NATO nation, Transnistria is cut off from the sea by Ukraine with all air access going through Ukraine or Romania. Neither are going to allow Russia to pass through in order to attack Moldova. However, Russia can solve this problem by appealing to separatists in Ukraine.

Since the conflict in Georgia Ukraine has become increasingly confrontational with Russia. The President of Ukraine issued a unilateral decree in response to the conflict in Georgia saying Russian ships have to inform Ukraine of their movements a day in advance and if they didn't the Foriegn Ministry could ask them to leave and the decree would also require Russia to inform Ukraine of their ships return 10 working days beforehand. While Ukraine has said it will "do everything" to insure the decree is implemented, it is unlikely they would resort to military force. However, the action is likely to inflame tensions with Russia as will Ukraine's offer to include their early warning systems, originally rented by Russia, in the NATO missile defense system.

Russia could solve its dispute over Sevastopol and provide a direct link to Transnistria by fomenting a pro-Russian separatist rebellion. One possible spark for this could be Ukraine being offered a Membership Action Plan for NATO. Such a rebellion would probably involve Eastern and southern Ukraine, roughly corresponding to Novorossiya or New Russia. A separatist state formed in those areas of Ukraine could adopt the name of Novorossiya. Russia could then use this separatist state, possibly annexing the region, to move into Transnistria. Moldova would not be able to last against the Russian military and could give up the breakaway state without a fight. Russia could then merge it with the Ukrainian breakaway state and either bring that state into the Russian Federation or the Union of Russia and Belarus.

The attack on Georgia has also pushed Poland and the U.S. into reaching an agreement on missile defense. Russia has already responded angrily with a Russian general threatening Poland would be a first priority target in the event of war between the U.S. and Russia suggesting they could even come under nuclear attack for housing the missile system. The U.S. has sent a warning of its own to Russia with the deployment of military forces in a humanitarian mission to Georgia.

While a small show of force it suggests future conflicts in the region will invite heavier American intervention.

Russo-Georgian War ending, fallout begins

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev halted operations against Georgia early on Tuesday after Russia succeeded in expelling Georgian forces from South Ossetia and Abkhazia succeeded in expelling them from the Kodori Gorge. With both breakaway regions under Russian control it seems Russia has stepped away from any push further into Georgia. While the conflict has subsided the repercussion of the war will be felt for much longer. The first sign of this was Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to withdraw Georgia from the Commonwealth of Independent States and declare Abkhazia and South Ossetia as occupied territory with Russian forces being labeled occupiers.

This greatly limits the chances Georgia will accept the continued presence of Russian force in the territories though signals from Moscow indicate they not only intend to maintain their presence there but they are even planning to bar Georgia as much from the territories as possible. Russia has added demands for a demilitarized zone around the separatist republics to a French proposal which on top of an aspect of the French proposal basically sends Georgian troops out of the breakaway republics for good. This likely will mean the effective annexation of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is seen even further by the growing calls from Russian politicians for recognition of their independence.

Russia is actually openly calling for Georgia to leave South Ossetia permanently and sign an agreement pledging not to use force against the separatist republics as conditions for peace. With Russia's position considerably strengthened to the point where annexation seems imminent, indeed a move by the Duma and Federal Council to recognize them could come as soon they come back into session, though Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister has said recognition would be "premature" while the crisis is still unresolved. However, it is unlikely the Russian government would not act accordingly if the Russian legislature recognized the republics.

The war with Georgia may also have serious consequences for Russia's involvement in Western institutions with talks of pushing Russia out of the G8, and denying them membership in the World Trade Organization and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. On top of this joint Russia-NATO exercises scheduled for Friday could be canceled in response.

At the same time the conflict in Georgia could drive forward other measures which are certain to aggravate relations with Russia even further. One such situation exists with Poland which had demanded greater military cooperation with the United States in exchange for placing elements of a missile defense system in the country. Now the United States, previously reluctant to go along, seems to be moving towards satisfying Polish demands for expanded military ties. It could also push the Czech Republic into accepting the radar out of fear of Russia's military expansion. However, such actions would only seem to confirm Russian suspicions the missile defense system was targeted against them all along.

Russia has threatened to respond to the deployment of a missile defense system by deploying ballistic missiles and strategic bombers in Belarus, though saying there were no intentions of deploying nuclear weapons. However the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, on Poland's northern border, didn't seem to be ruled out. Other reports suggested Russia could send nuclear bombers into Cuba either to be based there or simply have overflights in the nation's airspace. Several officials in Russia have also expressed support for establishing a military presence or defense alliance with Cuba.

Also while Georgia's NATO membership aspirations have been a major point of contention between Russia and Georgia the conflict between the two countries has not impacted that process. In fact, it is possible Georgia's membership will be fast-tracked to prevent an additional Russian attack on the country. The lack of intervention by the U.S. also makes it more likely it will intervene in the future. Should there be a massive attack on Ukraine or a conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, risking to bring in Russia, the United States may feel more compelled to take action in order to show it will support pro-Western allies in the region.

Regardless of the outcome it is likely Russia has now become a major issue in American politics and foreign policy, both falling on the side of deteriorating relations which have the potential to foment greater conflict in the future.

Kirkuk could ignite war

The ongoing dispute over the status of Kirkuk is now igniting new fears of conflict in Iraq. Iraq's election law and attempts to impose an ethnic division of Kirkuk's government is sparking angry reactions among Kurds in the province. Kurdish councilors have made a very blatant call for Kirkuk to be integrated into Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government. Iraqi President Talabani, also a Kurd, said the call from the province was merely a threat of unilateral action if Iraq's government fails to act, though all the same it caused enough worry in Ankara that Turkey's Prime Minister called Talabani.

Because of the dispute Iraq has failed to enact an election law already troubled by resistance from other parties who wish for the elections to be delayed. The failure came as a result of the Kurdish parties walking out and Talibani vetoing the legislation.

Iraq has also deployed troops to the city of Kirkuk in the province in response to violence there, though Kurdish politicians have opposed the deployment. Arab tribal leaders including the heads of several U.S.-armed Awakening groups have threatened violence if Kirkuk is brought into the Kurdish region. In spite of this Kurdistan's President Massoud Barzani has called the city of Kirkuk a "city of Kurdistan" his visit being boycotted by Arab and Turkish representative.

Turkey has warned the dispute could create violence if Kurds tried to unilateraly bring the province into the KRG. At the same time Kurds are suggesting Turkey is interfering in the dispute and trying to keep Kirkuk from being brought into Kurdistan.

Turkey also continues to have problem with its own Kurdish population, mainly the PKK. Despite launching an incursion into Northern Iraq Turkey is still facing heavy attacks from the PKK. Turkey one such attack took place in Istanbul with a terrorist bombing killing 17 civilians in the major city. Another major attack was made on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipline leading to it being cut off. Most recently nine Turkish soldiers were killed by the PKK including eight who died after hitting a roadside bomb. This may convince Turkish leaders that the operation in Northern Iraq had not succeeded.

If the Kurdish region attempts to bring Kirkuk in unilaterally as well this could lead to a major conflict in Kirkuk which could draw Turkey in to protect the Turkish minority in Northern Iraq as well with the continuing PKK attacks as an additional justification for sparking all-out war with the Kurds.

Russia may be planning attack on Georgian port

Russia may be preparing a major escalation of its conflict with Georgia as a Russian ship is floating outside of Georgia's port of Poti. The ship is reportedly enforcing a 50-mile exclusion zone around the port, effectively blocking the city's access to the Black Sea.

At the same time Russia acknowledges Georgian allegations that troops had been sent to Poti though denied it was an attack. Russia claimed the troops were sent to conduct a reconnaissance mission. At the same time the Russian occupation of Senaki had effectively cut off Poti from eastern Georgia. While Russia withdrew they also destroyed a military base there and are in a prime position to reoccupy the city with no resistance if the need arises.

Together these developments could suggest Russia is planning an operation against Poti. The Russian ship would cut Poti off from support from the sea, the occupation of Senaki would cut it from ground assistance, and the reconnaissance mission would allow invading troops to prepare a way to quickly take the city and eliminate resistance. Russian air strikes against the port could also greatly increase before an operation is launched. If Russia could succeed in taking the port it would cut Georgia off from the sea and also cut off much of Georgia's oil exports.

In another development a Russian MP is calling for an emergency session to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If such a session is called recognition would be a certainty and likely escalate the conflict even further.

Russia invades Georgia proper

Russian troops have now advanced from South Ossetia into Gori, taking control of the city. They have also advanced from Abkhazia to take Zugdidi and several other Georgian cities. Russia has reportedly pulled out of one of the towns taken in the new offensive. Georgian troops have also pulled back from Gori intending to hold Mtskheta which lies 15 miles from Tblisi.

Georgia fears Russia may be intending to attack and take the capital, ultimately to overthrow the government of Mikheil Saakashvili. This view about Russia's objective treceived significant support after the U.S. ambassador to the UN revealed a secret communication between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov during a Security Council meeting which has Lavrov calling for Saakashvili to "go" meaning be removed from power.

In addition to a possible advance on the capital Russia is also said to be planning an offensive against the Russian port of Poti. Poti is one of Georgia's two major Black Sea ports along with Batumi. At the same time Russia was expanding the bombing campaign against Georgia with as many as 50 Russian bombers operating Georgian airspace. Russia's fighters and bomber not only vastly outnumber the Georgian air force but are also far more advanced with the best Georgian aircraft being the Su-25 attack aircraft of which Georgia only has a few dozen. Should Russia decide to it could destroy much of Georgia's air force. The U.S. was also returning Georgian troops from Iraq who have now moved near areas held by Russian forces preparing for either a counter-offensive to block further Russian advances.

At the same time Ukraine is saying it may bar Russian ships which had gone from the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea. Ukraine is pressuring Russia to agree to a limitation on the use of force by Russian ships based in Crimea. For now Russia is basing the ships engaged in Georgia at the Russian port of Novorossiisk. However, it is unlikely Russia would let a barring of Russian ships from Crimea pass by unanswered though they would likely wait to act until they have dealt with Georgia. One possible option is to instigate a rebellion by pro-Russian Crimeans.

American Vice President Dick Cheney is warning Russia its actions in Georgia will not go unanswered and will seriously harm U.S.-Russian relations. Already there is talk of U.S. intervention. Any such intervention is likely to be meant as a means to prevent the toppling of Georgia's government and could involve the deployment of U.S. naval ships in the Black Sea as well as a limited deployment of American troops most likely in Tblisi. The implication being that any attempt to topple Georgia's government would lead Russia into conflict with the United States.

At the same time the conflict is becoming a major issue in the American presidential campaign. Barack Obama is still vacationing in Hawaii, which is likely to make him appear irresponsible in a time of crisis, while at the same time is heavily emphasizing diplomacy and negotiations with Russia rather than toughness. Their criticism of McCain is linking him to a lobbyist for the Georgian government, a political attack unlikely to gain significant traction. McCain is issuing a very tough response to the attack and he has in the past called for Russia to be expelled from the G8. McCain will likely use this to press his tougher foreign policy including his plan for a Community of Democracies to offset Russian and Chinese obstruction in the UN, his plan to increase considerably the size of the U.S. army, and revamping the CIA to a level relative to the OSS.

It is likely McCain will attempt to paint Obama as a sort of Neville Chamberlain calling for peace and diplomacy in the wake of a dangerous aggressor. This could resonate with voters as the conflict escalates further. Should McCain win the Presidential election it will likely move U.S.-Russian relations up to a more confrontational level.