Speculation is rife that this summer will see a war with Hezbollah and ultimately a war across the Middle East. Even if this Middle Eastern War starts with an attack on Iran or a pre-emptive strike by Iran it will inevitably come to include Hezbollah and Lebanon. While the Lebanese military has made it clear it intends to get involved in any future conflict with Israel it is ultimately Hezbollah that will spearhead Lebanon's military efforts and achieve the best results. This now rapidly developing role of Hezbollah as Lebanon's elite military force did not come quickly, but was the consequence of nearly three decades of conflict.
Beginning of the Resistance
In 1982 Israel launched an invasion of the country of Lebanon in order to expel the Palestine Liberation Organization. Despite attempts by Syria and its Lebanese allies to stop the attack, Israel succeeded in expelling the PLO and began an occupation of much of the southern half of Lebanon. A multinational force was soon brought into the country to oversee the PLO's withdrawal. At this time Iran stepped into the fray and began training 1,500 Lebanese Shiites who followed the doctrine of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
Iran sought to create in this group a militant force that could replicate Iran's Islamic Revolution in Lebanon. This group constituted what would first be known as the Islamic Resistance and eventually come to be known as Hezbollah. Soon the Islamic Resistance made their first decisive mark on Lebanon's history with the bombing of the U.S. Marine and French paratrooper barracks in Beirut, which claimed 241 U.S. and 58 French soldiers.
Initially, the response of Western military forces was defiance. U.S. and French forces retaliated to the attacks with strikes against Syrian forces and planned further attacks together, which would target Iran's Revolutionary Guard forces in the country. However, while the military forces had an appetite for war the American public and Congress were not willing to risk more deaths like those in the bombing and convinced President Reagan to abandon the country. The withdrawal of Western military forces was the first strategic victory of the militant force that would become the Hezbollah of today.
Uniting the Resistance and Defeating Israel
With the removal of the Multinational Force in Lebanon all that remained was the Israeli military and its proxy forces.While Israel did withdraw from most of South Lebanon in 1985 it retained its position on a strip along the Israeli border. However, the Islamic Resistance that had expelled the West was still disorganized and unable to present a united front against Israeli forces, which had much stronger motivation to continue the war.
As the Resistance attempted to bring together their disparate forces Israel struck out with its "Iron Fist" policy pursuing a strategy of all-out war that saw entire villages destroyed in the hopes of preventing Lebanese Shiite resistance forces from banding together against Israel. However, far from extinguishing this movement, Israel's actions only inflamed the resistance and Hezbollah increasingly emerged as the focal point for the force. It was during this time that Hezbollah began its rocket attacks against Northern Israel.
While Hezbollah's efforts focused on the Israeli occupation, its effort to unite the Shiite resistance soon lead it to take part in the ongoing civil war during the War of the Camps. In this battle Hezbollah confronted Amal, then the main Shiite militia force, and even Amal's ally Syria. The conflict thus was not only for the right to lead Lebanon's Shia community, the largest group in Lebanon, but a battle to determine if Syria or Iran would have primacy over them as well. Even after the conclusions of the War of the Camps this feud over leadership continued until Hezbollah won out. Unlike other militias which by then become incorporated into the Hezbollah force, Amal retained its independence but from then on it would essentially be subordinate to Hezbollah.
Even after the conclusion of Lebanon's civil war Israel continued its occupation of the border region and made countless failed attempts to destroy the rising organization. Yet, despite its best, Israel could not eliminate the force and in 2000 was decided to make a unilateral withdrawal from the region entirely. Around the world and in Lebanon this event was seen as the first major defeat for Israel and Hezbollah received much of the credit. This began to lift up the image of Hezbollah in the Arab world as it was considered the first victory for Arab forces against Israel.
Continuing the Fight
Even with this significant victory the liberation of Lebanon was not considered complete for Hezbollah until the Shebaa farms were reclaimed as well. Thus began another multi-year low-intensity conflict centered on the disputed border territory.
Hezbollah's opening salvo in this conflict was devastating politically: the group launched a raid that led to the capture of three Israeli soldiers. After several years Hezbollah exchanged the bodies of the long-dead soldiers as well as a captured Israeli citizen for hundreds of prisoners and the remains of dozens of Lebanese militants and civilians. Intermittent fighting continued in the region with cross-border attacks and strikes occurring frequently.
Rallying Lebanon to the Resistance
Though Hezbollah had long been involved in the politics of Lebanon, a major political shift occurred that ultimately opened the way for Hezbollah to gain even more power in the country. Rafic Hariri was assassinated on February 14, 2005 by a car bomb and blame was soon laid on Syria and the Lebanese government. The response was a series of mass protests by anti-Syrian officials and activists, which came to be known as the Cedar Revolution. As a result of this mass action the pro-Syrian government resigned and Syria declared its intended compliance with a UN resolution requiring its withdrawal from Lebanon. Not long after this Hezbollah staged a pro-Syrian demonstration that also objected to requirements under the same UN resolution for its militia to disband. This Hezbollah-organized demonstration was several times larger than any of those opposing Syria and proved it was not only a capable militant group, but an effective political one as well.
Just a year later Hezbollah gained another opportunity to display its strength when it launched a cross-border attack on Israeli troops that sparked a month-long military campaign by the Israeli military against the group. The 2006 Lebanon War was on a much greater scale than its past operations against Hezbollah as the organization had built up a considerable defensive network in Southern Lebanon during Israel's six-year absence. Not only did Hezbollah achieve several tactical victories during the campaign and ultimately a strategic victory due to Israel's withdrawal, the political gains were also considerable. More than surviving the group had emboldened its supporters and grew its support base within all the various demographic groups in Lebanon.
They soon showed this broadening of support with protests launched later in the year against the sitting pro-Western government in the country, specifically with regards to forming a national unity government. Hezbollah's mainly Shiite coalition had expanded to include the anti-Syrian Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement as well. A year and a half of protests showed little progress until the Lebanese government made a move to crack down on Hezbollah. The end result was the seizure of parts of Beirut by Hezbollah and its allies with the pro-government parties suffering stinging defeats as the military sat idly by, proving no force in the country could now stand up to the organization. In response to this crisis the demands of Hezbollah and its allies was granted with the group gaining considerable influence with veto power in the government and having Hezbollah's militia given official support from the Lebanese government.
The 2009 elections formally ended this arrangement with Hezbollah's opposition losing the critical seat in government needed for veto power, but the pro-Western parties did not regain their position of authority either as Lebanese President Suleiman, appointed as part of the 2008 compromise, chose several positions in the government. Yet, this can be seen as retaining Hezbollah's strength as the President has frequently iterated his support for the Hezbollah military group.
A Growing Military Power
Now, with war increasingly on the horizon, Hezbollah is more and more solidifying itself as a crucial military force in Lebanon. With its political influence at all time highs, including the apparent full support of the President and military, the group is accelerating its buildup. Already having a substantial arsenal of short and medium-range rockets reports are emerging that Syria has transferred Scud missiles to Hezbollah. Adding these onto its rocket and missile arsenal means the group now has the capacity to strike anywhere in Israel and put them through a far greater hell than in 2006 with Israelis all across the country rushing into bunkers.
This growing arsenal is not limited to surface-to-surface weapons as some Hezbollah cells are receiving extensive training in the use of anti-air weaponry that could be moved into Lebanon at the beginning of a war and immediately serve as a major deterrent to Israeli air power. Others are being trained in the use of anti-ship weaponry that would allow the group to deter Israeli amphibious attacks and attacks from offshore. Hezbollah already proved its capabilities in this area with its attack on the INS Hanit during the 2006 war. With more training and a larger arsenal of anti-ship weapons Hezbollah could prove to be highly capable at keeping the Israeli navy at bay. A large network of anti-tank lines integrated with a communications network and system of highways that can be closed off in the event of war has also been built inside Lebanon.
Hezbollah's offensive abilities have also greatly increased. With Iranian training Hezbollah has built up a force of some 5,000 commandos for use in a future war. These forces would infiltrate into Northern Israel and seize control of several important areas along the border potentially boxing in Israeli forces invading Southern Lebanon. With greatly improved anti-armor capabilities, a larger overall military force, and with tactics even more polished than in 2006 Hezbollah has evolved an offensive capability that could allow it to inflict serious damage in Israel itself and, in Lebanon, bring about massive casualties to Israeli ground forces.
Even excluding guaranteed support from the Lebanese military and likely support from Syria, Hezbollah has positioned itself to be far greater threat to Israel than any group before. Combined with its domestic Lebanese and its broader international support Israel is sure to find itself confronting the greatest threat to its existence in its history.
Friday, April 30, 2010
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