Honduras edging to the brink

On July 2 Manuel Zelaya is planning to return to Honduras in the face of warnings from the post-coup government that he would be arrested immediately. Zelaya will be accompanies by the head of the Organization of American States as well as several Latin American Presidents including Rafael Correa of Ecuador, a member of the leftist regional organization ALBA founded by Hugo Chavez. The exact circumstances of his arrival are unknown though it is likely he will be encircled by his supporters and together with his escort of international leaders any attempt to use the military to arrest him will be dangerous.

While the coup leaders are sending representatives to Washington D.C. for talks there is no guarantee a resolution will be reached. Zelaya is certain to refuse anything short of a reinstatement and his opponents may not be too anxious to see him back in power. Without a resolution by the time Zelaya arrives the stage will be set for a more serious escalation of the crisis.

In anticipation of developments regarding Zelaya's arrival and likely in reaction to ongoing protests throughout the country the government has extended a curfew by three days. Continuing restrictions are likely only to inflame current protests, which on Monday in the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa were violently dispersed with two dead and 60 injured according to some reports. In spite of this protests in the capital continue to build reaching 10,000 people with protests around the country. Union leaders supporting Zelaya have also called a national strike which could stokes tensions even further.

Another development that could send the situation in Honduras spiraling out of control is the reported rejection of the current government's authority by two military battalions. Of particular importance is the presence of these battalions in the coastal state of Atlantida with one of them stationed in the second-largest city in Honduras. With those forces in control it provides Zelaya a potential safe haven in the country upon his return. It's position on the Caribbean side provides additional strategic benefits as well in the event of war. While Nicaragua's border is considerably closer to the capital being able to launch an offensive from the coastline would make resistance to an invasion more difficult especially with some Honduran forces backing them.

Venezuela threatens intervention in Honduras

The Honduran Congress has appointed the successor for deposed President Manuel Zelaya after the Congress unanimously voted to remove Zelaya. In spite of this Zelaya is insisting he will not give up in trying to regain his position. He is not alone in his support as Venezuela as well as most of the world is backing his return to power. Even privately U.S. officials are saying they recognize Zelaya as president. The strength of his support is a different matter. The nature of U.S. comments suggests support is measured and potentially fragile. However support from Zelaya's leftist allies in Latin America is much stronger.

In particular Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has said his country's military is on full alert and warns they will use military force if their ambassador is "kidnapped" or killed. He has also pledged to go to war if the Venezuelan embassy is violated. Even further he has pledged to remove any government sworn in as a result of the coup. While straying from the fiery rhetoric Ecuador is also warning that they will go to war if their ambassador or those of their allies were threatened. There have already been claims that the ambassadors of Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela were briefly taken by security forces and that the Venezuelan ambassador was beaten then left on the side of a road.

An extraordinary meeting of the Bolivarian Alliance for the People of our America, known as ALBA, was called in Managua, Nicaragua. Zelaya has reportedly been flown from Costa Rica, where Honduran troops exiled him, by a Venezuelan aircraft to participate in the meeting. Potential actions from the meeting could be minor like a condemnation or more serious like an effort to restore Zelaya by force.

If such a decision is not reached there a potential escalation of the situation within Honduras is a another possible justification. Protesters have clashed with security forces near the presidential palace, been setting up barricades, and blocking roads. Groups of young men, many armed with metal pipes or chains, have been burning tires and newspaper stands as well as throwing rocks at cars. Protesters said they were willing to fight and die in their resistance to the coup. In at least one case a leftist leader is said to have been killed as soldiers attempted to detain him. Any significant unrest or crackdown by military forces could be used as pretext for military intervention by Zelaya's backers.

A risk here is that U.S. troops stationed in Honduras at Soto Cano Air Base will be dragged into the conflict. Despite publicly opposing the coup and privately calling for Zelaya's reinstatement allegations have been raised about the connections between the coup leaders and the U.S. In particular is the fact the two main military fixtures in the coup studied at the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation or School of the Americas. Further the U.S. is unlikely to support Zelaya being reinstated through force by Chavez and his allies. The most likely result from such an action would be reforms similar to those implemented by Chavez.

Any attack into Honduras could bring U.S. military forces into the picture escalating such a conflict even further.

New Nagorno-Karabakh War on the Horizon

On June 26, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev declared Azerbaijan's military was ready to "restore its territorial integrity" at any moment. Aliyev called the ongoing peace talks "fruitless" and that his left only the military option. He further argued that Azerbaijan has the "sovereign right" to retake Nagorno-Karabakh with force if Armenia doesn't show more flexibility in negotations.

While analysts claim his remarks are meant to rally nationalist support recent military exercises could be part of preparations for a military incursion. In particular the fact the war games were called the "Restoration of the Territorial Integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan" suggests it may be in preparation for an actual military intervention. The key determining factor could be talks in Russia mid-July on a peace deal. The convergence of these events are somewhat opposed to his comments merely being rhetoric. Kosovo's independence and the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have also put additional pressure on Azerbaijan.

A conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh also has potential to spread into Georgia where recent protests by ethnic Armenians in Javakheti led to clashes with police. A speaker of the Georgian parliament suggested Russia could provoke a scenario like Nagorno-Karabakh in the region.

Russian military exercises ending in early July could be a sign of preparations for such conflict. The exercises called KavKaz 2009 would involve the Black Sea Fleet, North Caucasian forces, and critically the Caspian Flotilla. While involvement of the Black Sea and South Ossetian and Abkhaz forces indicate it most likely involve, but the Caspian Flotilla's involvement suggests the conflict entails more than a conflict with Georgia. It most likely means a conflict with Azerbaijan. This could mean Russia is preparing for a scenario where a new conflict erupts with Georgia probably following an Azeri invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh.

A U.S. military scenario in 2006 involving the deployment of U.S. military forces to prevent an invasion of Azerbaijan by a third country, most likely Russia, could be realized with Armenia being a member of the CSTO. Such a development would erase what little progress has been made in U.S.-Russian relations.

Coup lauched in Honduras

On the day of Manuel Zelaya's expected referendum the military surrounded the presidential palace and removed Zelaya. Zelaya was taken to an air base outside the capital with reports he is being sent into exile. The military briefly clashed with supporters of Zelaya outside the presidential palace.

Troops also had seized documents related to the planned referendum. Soldiers have been deployed across the capital of Honduras to prevent any unrest in response to the coup. What follows next will be key to any escalation. Venezuela and its allies have pledged to support Zelaya in any way possible and as such might make moves to intervene in Honduras.

Most immediate signs will likely come from Nicaragua though an invasion is unlikely at this stage.

Next Battleground for resistance to U.S. in Honduras

June 28 in Honduras President Manuel Zelaya is planning to hold a consultative referendum on whether to place a measure calling for a Constituent Assembly to change the Constitution on the November ballot. Zelaya is doing this over the objections of his own party, the Supreme Court, and military. Opposition from the head of the military led to Zelaya moving to relieve him. At the same time the Congress has launched an investigation into his mental state which could find him unfit to rule. The result would be the president of Congress, Roberto Micheletti, taking the Presidency. Despite being from Zelaya's own part he has been one of the major critics of Zelaya's efforts.

However such efforts could rile his supporters who have already shown considerable resistance to the present system going so far as to go to an Air Force base where ballots were being held for destruction to retrieve them and distribute them to polling stations. Should Zelaya be removed through essentially a legal coup popular resistance could emerge to the action potentially resulting in conflicts with the military.

People have been warned not to vote in the referendum because they could be attacked by Zelaya supporters. The Micheletti claimed Zelaya's supporters might assassinate him. All of this heightens tension in preparation for the referendum and there exists a risk that military forces will block people from voting resulting with battles in the streets.

Potential consequences of these developments are considerable. Should Zelaya be found unfit to rule by Congress he is likely to ignore the ruling and use his supporters to shield him from forcible removal. If the security forces press through supporters violently to foricbly remove Zelaya it would likely result in mass unrest or even civil war. This could open up a much bigger can of worms for the region.

Under Zelaya Honduras has joined the Bolivarian Alliance for the People of Our America which includes the nations of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba and several small caribbean nations. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has promised to support Zelaya together with his allies in any way they could. Of most immediate consequence would be Nicaragua which shares its northern border with Honduras. Nicaragua could be used as a passageway for weapons from Cuba or Venezuela to support a resistance to any military-imposed government. Should the situation escalate further all-out war is a distinc possibility.

That scenario could involve a very short conflict involving an invasion from Nicaragua by ALBA military forces especially Venezuelan forces. One major risk is that the U.S. intervenes in support of the Honduran government through direct military force or a blockade. In the event U.S. forces are deployed in Honduras and come into conflict with ALBA military forces further escalations become possible with Russia and/or Brazil moving to warn off the U.S. from intervention.

Developments in Honduras are further evidence of a growing trend involving conflict between American-backed forces and Russian-backed leftists in Latin America. September 2008's unrest in Bolivia and the Colombian strike which nearly sparked a war Ecuador and Venezuela in March of the same year indicate more events are likely to occur in the future.