The Taliban's Revival and the Afghan-Pakistani crisis

Only a month ago Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai threatened to send Afghan troops into Pakistan's tribal areas following increased incursions by Taliban militants from Pakistan into Afghanistan. At the time the Taliban had staged a major jail break in Kandahar and were beginning to surround the city. While a retaking of the city by the Taliban was averted it was primarily because the Taliban chose to retreat into other areas of the province then engage the superior ISAF forces. Now the potential for instability has arisen once more in the form of a U.S. military buildup on the Pakistani border. Though both Pakistan and the U.S. deny any buildup various sources on the border describe the deployment of hundreds of troops with tanks and helicopter flights in the area.

According to some reports the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs warned Pakistan the U.S. would act unilaterally to stop Taliban incursions if Pakistan doesn't act and army sources have been cited saying the border forces were put on red alert to avert cross-border incursions. This too follows a major coup for the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan after they assaulted a U.S. outpost, killing nine U.S. soldiers and ultimately forcing the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the area, which immediately fell under Taliban control. It also follows up the recent bombing of the Indian embassy which Afghanistan accused of being carried out by Pakistani intelligence, as well as an assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai. Afghanistan halted meetings with Pakistan in a response to the allegations.

NATO forces in Afghanistan have also been launching cross-border strikes following attacks from inside Pakistan. Some reports are indicating the Taliban are intending to spark a cross-border incident, possibly hoping to start a war between the two countries. Drawing Afghanistan and the U.S. into the tribal areas would allow the Taliban to inflict heavy casualties on the forces as well as distract them and Pakistan from its own activities in both countries. While the remaining Taliban forces around Kandahar are believed to have been expelled by U.S. forces the Taliban still controls a substantial portion of the province and could launch a major offensive against the city once more, especially if NATO and Afghan troops are tied down in a major conflict within Pakistan or against Pakistan.

Kandahar is crucial in Afghanistan as a major roadway. Controlling Kandahar would put the Taliban in a prime position to launch an attack on Kabul. Given their already substantial positions around Kabul, which is closer to the main Taliban sanctuary in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, the seizure of Kandhar could pave the way for a major offensive on the capital. Helping this effort even further would the seizure of another important city in Pakistan, Peshawar. Peshawar is a crucial roadway into Afghanistan and is used to get many of NATO's supplies, it also has been put in serious danger by Taliban positions near the city. Some of these militants were repelled but the main Taliban forces remain and reportedly could take the city at any time which would not only be a boon to the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan could pave the way for a future assault on Islamabad.

The main source of contention has been the newly-elected Pakistani government's tendency to sign ceasefires with the Taliban only to have the Taliban build up its forces for more major assaults in Pakistan and beefing up the insurgency in Afghanistan. Each time the Taliban comes back stronger and more capable than ever.

If the Taliban is seeking to spark a conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan it would have no better opportunity than when the U.S. and Afghan forces are straddling the Pakistani border. However the consequences of this could be far broader in scope. A U.S. incursion, if intercepted by Pakistani forces, is likely to spark a border war with the country and India may also get involved in the situation with some suggesting Indian troops be deployed in Afghanistan. Indian involvement in Afghanistan would build up pressure on Pakistan and could increase the risk of an Afghan-Pakistani conflict starting a war between India and Pakistan.

Whether India gets involved or not it is unlikely China will not react to a conflict between the U.S. and Pakistan. However, they are more likely to threaten intervention and rattle sabres at India to prevent their intervention. Aside from building up troops on the Pakistani and Afghan border, naval movements in the East China Sea could also be used to increase the pressure.The threat of war with China and the danger of the Taliban using instability to seize both Pakistan and Afghanistan would likely be enough to bring an end to any conflict between the two parties.

While any U.S. buildup on the Pakistani border is likely just pressure on Pakistan's government to act against the Taliban the potential for a single incident to spark a major confrontation is high and the consequences of a broad and dangerous scope.

Russo-Georgian tensions heat up

In late June and July diplomatic and military tensions in the breakaway regions of Georgia have considerably increased. It began when bombings in Abkhazia late June led to the closing of Abkhazia's border with Georgia. This was in response to alleged Georgian involvement in the bombings which Georgia denied. Over the two weeks following tensions have escalated to an extreme level in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In South Ossetia on July 4 a shootout between Georgian and South Ossetian forces left two dead and led to a military mobilization by South Ossetia. Both sides blamed the other for starting the clash. South Ossetia threatened that any further violence would lead to retaliation including the use of heavy weapons against Georgian forces. Georgia responded by reinforcing its military presence. Following the attacks in South Ossetia were a series of bombings in Abkhazia which led to four deaths. Abkhazia's response was to cut off all ties to the Georgian government claiming the act was Georgian state terrorism. Georgia said it was planned by Russian groups wanting to maintain the Russian military presence. Abkhazia's president also announced that Georgia had plans to invade the breakaway region earlier in the year.

However, tensions reached their highest pitch following the detention of four Georgian soldiers by South Ossetia. Georgia said it was planning an operation to free the soldiers, though the soldiers were released before the operation could be undertaken. Despite this Russia sent its fighters into Georgian airspace to prevent Georgia's planned operation into South Ossetia. The admission led not only to the recalling of Georgia's ambassador to Russia, but also to Georgia calling an emergency session of the UN Security Council. South Ossetia said it was capable of preventing an attack by Georgia without Russia's help though claiming Russia had prevented a Georgian military operation by sending its fighters into Georgian airspace. Georgian officials have said if Russia violated its airspace against their fighters would be shot down and said it would reveal a Russian plan to seize the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia by staging a Georgian attack on Russian peacekeepers.

In the midst of these tensions Russia's military has increased the combat readiness of its peacekeepers in Abkhazia including additional training and increasing security. A Russian military commander also warned on July 10 that Russia’s North Caucasian Military District would be ready to provide assistance to Russian peacekeepers in the event of a flare-up in tensions. This potential scenario was the subject of military exercises in the Caucasus by Russia. Georgia in response to the tensions has said it would be building up its military by 15% to 37,000 troops who would deployed to protect Georgian airspace as well as Georgia's black sea coast.

Adding even further to tensions have been parallel military exercises by Russia and the United States in Ukraine and Georgia. Russia's exercises are intended in part to prepare soldiers for supporting Russian peacekeepers in Georgia and Georgia has condemned the exercises as an aggressive show of force. The U.S. exercises included Georgia and Ukraine as well as Caucasian nations such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, and many NATO nations.

Another recent development in the region are talks about eventually admitting Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Union State of Russia and Belarus. While the Union has not developed towards a federal state yet the fact this is the ultimate aim would make this a roundabout way for the breakaway regions to merge with Russia. A representative of the Union said the Georgian regions as well as Transnistria could join once they are recognized as independent. At first they would have to gain observer status and then ultimately graduate to full membership. This major shift from talk of incorporating the regions into Russia itself to having them join the Union State could be signaling the Union State's growing importance with Russia signaled by Putin's ascendance to the Premiership of the Union. This will ultimately leave Putin at the head of Russia's enlargement to incorporate other countries and breakaway regions in the Former Soviet Union.

While independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia is one potential instigator of conflict between Russia and Georgia another may be arising with the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Georgian regions. Georgia has said that if a plan being offered by Germany on the conflict zone isn't accepted Georgia would take unilateral action against Russian peacekeepers. This would most likely be a formal demand for Russian peacekeepers to withdraw from Abkhazia which Russia previously warned could provoke a conflict in the Caucasus. This is a possibility mainly because Russia is unlikely to withdraw, which Georgia would then use to paint the Russian peacekeepers as invaders and may then take military action against them. Under those conditions Georgia would probably receive backing from the West in the event of an offensive against Russian peacekeepers, though likely not giving direct military assistance.

In this event Russia would claim Georgia was trying to resolve the dispute with Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force and recognize their independence. An invasion of the regions by Georgia would provide a perfect cover for Russian recognition and ultimately their incorporation into Russia's new empire.