Russia's Future Power at Sea

Before Germany fought in World War I they underwent the most massive naval buildup of their time. Germany's Fleet Acts were aimed at outdoing the Royal Navy, the dominant sea power of the time. The ensuing arms race was considered one of the chief causes of World War I. Now an eerily similar buildup is being talked up in Russia.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian fleet announced last month the intentions to have a massive buildup of the Russian navy. This buildup would include six aircraft carriers, three in the Northern Fleet and three in the Pacific Fleet. This would be a vast increase in Russia's naval power and exceed to the capabilities of the Soviet Navy at it zenith.

The expansion however, does not just include aircraft carriers, but be an increase of a hundred ships including submarines and surface ships. Part of this arms buildup for the period up to 2015 puts the naval buildup on par with buildup of the nuclear arsenal. Part of this buildup will involve advanced nuclear subs like Borei and Yasen. Borei employs the Bulava ballistic missiles an advanced variant of the Topol-M, which is designed to avoid missile defense system. With ten such subs, one holding 12 missiles and the other nine holding 16 missiles, Russia will have 156 Bulava missiles. The Yasen is purported to be more advanced than the most advanced American submarines.

It also doesn't just involve the North Fleet and Pacific Fleet. Russia is also planning to enlarge its presence in the Black Sea Fleet. The Fleet's Commander-in-Chief has also talked of building a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean. Russia has reportedly been deepening two ports in Syria, Latakia and Tartus, to serve as bases for this new fleet presence. This would be the first time since the Cold War that Russian ships would be based in the Mediterranean Sea.

This effort may even overlap with Russia's reaction to Kosovo's independence. Russia and Ukraine have been in a long-running dispute over Crimea which became increasingly tense after anti-NATO protests last year. Many of those in Crimea have called for independence from Ukraine and joining with Russia. Russia's State Duma even put forth the idea of annexing the Crimea as a response to Ukraine's threats of raising the rent for a Russian naval base there and the protests in Crimea. In connection with this a plan to build a nearly 3-mile bridge connecting Russia and Crimea would ease such an annexation. With a base being built in Russia, the annexation of Crimea would allow for a larger naval presence in the Black Sea and would almost completely cut Ukraine off from the sea. The potential fallout in Southern and Eastern Ukraine, dominantly pro-Russian, could be immense.

Command-in-Chief of Russia's navy, Admiral Vladimir Masorin, has said the buildup would be done within 20 years. Higher arms exports to Venzuela, Iran, Syria, China and India combined with Russia's massive energy monopoly, the funds for such massive military plans will not be hard to find.

November 28th - Kosovo's Indpendence Day

The wheels are beginning to turn on Kosovo:

Xharra: They stand behind you, but they did not say they will recognize independence this year?

Ceku: They did not say. They didn’t want to give exact dates. I said we asked for an exact date but they didn’t give us one. In principle, after the 120-day period; when we know when it begins, then we will calculate the dates …We asked for the 120-period to start immediately, and we were promised it will start very soon. The UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon is expected to invite both parties next week to try harder in finding a joint solution. That day will be considered as the beginning of the 120-day period. From now, we have to start working so that Kosovo becomes independent after 120 days. The independence will happen with the declaration by the Assembly of Kosovo, the recognition of the independence by the United States, European countries and other places. We have to work so that this happens immediately after the 120 days. We have to finish work on drafting the constitution, symbols, laws required by the Ahtisaari package. We have to finalize every detail, then take over responsibility from UNMIK [the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo].

So the plan has already been set the only question is when to implement it. Apparently it will be implemented 120 days after a meeting with Ban Ki-Moon. While the date is not explicitly mentioned a meeting yesterday may have been the one he was talking about. The Contact Group, including Serbia and Kosovo, met the secretary-general to get approval for new talks. If this is the day Ceku says is the beginning of the negotiation period than 120 days from yesterday Kosovo will consider the negotiations over and likely declare independence.

This would set a date for independence at about November 28th, interestingly enough, that's exactly the date Ceku suggests for Kosovo to declare independence:

Xharra: Before you left, you said that the date of declaring independence will be 28 November. Do you still think this should be the date?

Ceku: I have suggested this date for many reasons. First of all, I was trying to have us, the Kosovar leadership, take the responsibility and the leading role. We see there is hesitation; everybody wants to be the second in this process. Take responsibility and keep the support of the international community by respecting their requests! Which are these requests? By respecting the additional 120 days. OK, we don’t say it today but after 120 days! By respecting Ahtisaari’s package. By respecting the Contact Group principles. By respecting the request for the EU presence in Kosovo. We have created a document that is called the U plan for Kosovo’s independence. U stands for unity. The plan of unity. It is not Agim Ceku’s plan, it’s our plan, Kosovo’s plan.…In the assembly session, which is due to be held, the assembly is supposed to come up with a statement which says on this day [we will declare independence], and I proposed that day to be 28 November if by that day the international community does not solve the Kosovo issue.

He also seems to acknowledge the meeting Tuesday is the beginning of negotiations:

Xharra: Why did you choose 28 November? Everybody knows it is a problematic date; it’s the Albanian Flag Day!

Ceku: It fits right. Calculate! 121 days. It fits with the 120-day period. … In Kosovo, it was celebrated by Albanians only. We wanted to make it a Kosovo national holiday too, not only of Albanians. All citizens of Kosovo will welcome it. Kosovo Serbs too, I’m sure.

The U plan says we declare the independence after 120 days, or on the 28^th November. Visit all European centers until the 28 November, explain to them the process, explain the necessity to declare independence and how independence will look, our vision after the independence. Draft the constitution. Choose the symbols. In fact, finalize them as we’re already working on them. Finalize the work on approving the constitution, symbols, laws, transfer of responsibilities. Hold a conference or a meeting with the European Union on the modalities of the EU entering Kosovo.

Ceku seems to make it clear the meeting yesterday is considered the beginning of negotiations. Like he says, Calculate! 121 days from November 28th backwards gives you July 31st, yesterday exactly.

The interviewer also brings up an interesting fact. November 28th is Albania's Independence Day! With Kosovo and Albania having the same independence day the irredentist nature of Kosovo independence has to be brought into question. Such a step could ultimately incite fears about the formation of a "Greater Albania" among regional neighbors. Macedonia, in particular, has fears of such a state emerging due to its large Albanian population.

While Kosovo prepares for its apparently inevitable independence it seems they're not the only ones to do so:

"The fate of Kosovo has been ordained, thus our fate will also be determined in the nearest future…And if such a decision [recognition] is taken towards the end of the year, it will untie the hands of other countries for recognizing Abkhazia, Transdniester, Nagorno Karabakh, and South Ossetia," said Bagapsh, adding that his region has "even more historical and legal grounds for independence than Kosovo."

Presuming recognition of an independent Kosovo just around the corner, the de facto president of breakaway Abkhazia spelled out what he imagines to be Russia's game plan for supporting Abkhaz independence.

Interestingly enough Bagapsh is fairly tolerant of Russia's opposition to Kosovo's independence :

He added that while many in Abkhazia were upset that Russia favored Serbia's territorial integrity and opposed recognition of an independent Kosovo, this position of a "great country" towards a geo-strategic partner, Serbia, "is understandable."

And now, Bagapsh said, if the international community flies past Russia's objections, Moscow will say, "we didn't want this precedent, but now having your decision on Kosovo recognition in violation of all international norms-what hinders us in recognizing Abkhazia?"

So it seems we are definitely on a path towards conflict. All that's left is to wait until November 28th, Kosovo's Independence Day.