Iran and Syria Call for War

It seems the regional war in the Middle East I warned about just yesterday is coming fully into the open with a recent joint press conference by Iran and Syria. Of note:

"The enemies of this region should drop their plans to strike the interests of this region, for these enemies will burn by the fire of the people," Ahmadinejad stated. "Both countries are united in a frontier facing common enemies to the region."

Ahmadinejad warned the unnamed enemies to abandon their “hostile plans,” stating "Syria and Iran are aspiring for this summer to be hot by virtue of the victories that will be attained by the peoples of the region... and the enemies of the peoples of the region are on their way to perdition and defeat".

The article also does an interesting job at pointing out the ties of this alliance with Russia:

As part of the new military alliance, Iran will fund over $1 billion in new defense equipment for Syria including: 400 Russian tanks, 8 Mikoyan helicopters, 8 Sukhoi fighter jets, 18 MiG-31s, Iranian armoured vehicles and tanks, and Chinese C-801/802 missiles.

According to the report a threat is also posed to Siniora government in Lebanon:

Ahmadinejad reportedly also pledged to help Syria overthrow Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and to aid in the restoration of pro-Syrian influence within the Lebanese parliament. In addition, Iran will fund Syrian research towards the respective establishment and improvement of nuclear and biological weapons programs.

Israeli politicians are also reacting heavily to this announcement:

Knesset Member Aryeh Eldad (National Union) said the military alliance forged between Iran and Syria is “reminiscent of the pacts that were signed on the eve of the Six Day and Yom Kippur wars”.

"The Iranian decision will lead to the launching of an attack on Israel from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Iran,” Eldad stated

.

"For some reason, the government of Israel, chooses to ignore not only intelligence information, but even information that is published for all to see," he added.

Including calls for an emergency government:

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs Avigdor Lieberman (Israel Beiteinu) called for Olmert and Opposition Leader Benyamin Netanyahu (Likud) to form a unity government to deal with the growing Iranian-Syrian threat.

"The strengthening of the relationship between Assad and Ahmadinejad demands that Israel reorganize its political and military preparations," said Lieberman.

"The Iranian threat, said the minister, remains outside of politics, and therefore I call on the prime minister and the head of the opposition to reconsider forming a national emergency government.

This is happening at the same time as an ultimatum from Turkey:

Turkey gave a warning on Saturday that it could send troops into Northern Iraq if talks with Iraqi and US officials after Sunday’s general elections fail to produce effective measures against Kurdish rebels based there.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he had invited his Iraqi counterpart Nuri al-Maliki to visit Ankara after the elections to discuss the presence of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) rebels in northern Iraq.

Accusing Washingon of failing to fulfill its pledges of curbing the PKK, Erdogan said he would seek trilateral talks in order to resolve the dispute.

“We will ask them to take whatever step is necessary or we will do whatever is necessary,” Erdogan was quoted by the Anatolia news agency as telling the Kanal-7 network.

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul also said that Ankara would not refrain from action to eliminate the threat posed by the PKK, listed as a terrorist organisation by both Ankara and Washington. “Our aim is not to enter Iraq, but to neutralize the terrorist organization. We will use our right (of self-defence) as long as the terrorist organization continues to harm Turkey,” Gul told the TGRT television channel, Anatolia said. Mounting PKK violence has been one of the dominant issues in campaigning ahead of the July 22 elections, with the opposition attacking Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) for being soft on the issue.

A Turkish-Iranian invasion could be the trigger for this regional war that will likely engulf the entire Middle East.

On the Verge of a Massive Realignment

These next few years are going to be crucial for global politics. However, the most important issue facing us in the near future is not entirely expected and may shock much of the world. The stage is being set for the alliances preceding the next Great War that will likely engulf the entire world. In the same way a ripple grows to immense size from a small point in the water, so too will this new era be ushered in. The two developments that will play the greatest part in this shift are in Kosovo and Iraqi Kurdistan.

The Problem with Kosovo

Tomorrow the U.N. Security Council will hold talks on the latest Kosovo resolution. If it comes to a vote Russia has promised to veto the latest resolution like it has the previous resolutions. Should the resolution be rejected or vetoed the U.S. has promised Kosovo independence "one way or the other" with Kosovo's Prime Minister already saying he will declare independence soon. The fallout from a unilateral declaration of independence and recognition by the U.S. and other countries will be immense.

Not only has Serbia threatened a response to any country recognizing Kosovo, with some suggesting they cut diplomatic ties with nations recognizing Kosovo, the possibility of a new war over Kosovo can't be ruled out. Not only is it possible the Serbs within Kosovo might secede the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia has also threatened to secede and join a Greater Serbia. Another Balkan War would follow with NATO troops in the crossfire. Such a conflict could risk radicalizing the Muslim populations of Bosnia and Kosovo, providing a pathway to Europe for al-Qaeda.

However, the greatest consequence would not be felt in the Balkans, but the former Soviet Union. Whatever happens in Kosovo has been considered a precedent by the leaders of self-proclaimed republics in the former Soviet Union for their own independence. Some consider Kosovo to be less deserving of independence so any move towards recognition of Kosovo will be used to advance their own goals for recognition. Russia's president Vladimir Putin has already stated that he'll use Kosovo as a precedent for these "frozen conflict" zones. Russian troops are currently based in three of these four regions, Transnistria in Moldova, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia in Georgia. Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, the fourth, is occupied by Armenian troops.

Should these four republics be recognized by Russia and Armenia both would be forced to defend the new republics. Russia has long been prepared to defend South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian troops and, in addition to troops already stationed there, is able to move its own troops into those territories in an instant. However, Transnistria is a landlocked region within Moldova, also a landlocked country. Russia has troops in Transnistria, but should they need support it will mean coming in over Ukraine or Romania and then Moldova to reach Transnistria, which can only invite further conflict.

The matter of Armenia supporting Nagorno-Karabakh could however lead to a very serious conflict. Azerbaijan has increased its defense budget substantially and intends to go to war if Nagorno-Karabakh is separated or the status quo remains. If a recent U.S. war scenario is any indicator, the United States may intervene on behalf of Azerbaijan to prevent Russian action. In the current state of the U.S. military this is an unlikely scenario, but such an operation may be used to prevent further invasion by Armenian and Russian forces if not expel the Armenian military from Nagorno-Karabakh and the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

For the West such a conflict occuring in the Balkans and former Soviet Union risks to further dampen relations. Already a diplomatic spat is emerging between Russia and the UK over the murderer of Litvinenko. There is also Russia's recent decision to suspend the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty that limits Russian numbers on military forces. This has already increased the rhetoric in Azerbaijan to withdraw from the treaty and paves the way for a buildup of Russian military forces. This would help Russia make good on its threat to target Europe with missiles due to the missile defense sites being planned in Eastern Europe.

With a conflict in the Balkans and Russia attacking nations in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe it is only going to worsen Russia's already falling ties with the West over actions in Estonia and Russian fuel supplies. A war would effectively unite much of Europe against Russia and destroy relations with the United States. Russia might then decide to withdraw from other arms agreements with the West and build up its forces in the region. Should Serbia succeed in uniting Srpska with itself, but fail in taking Kosovo it would put the Balkan states on a constant war footing with danger of further incitements. It would eliminate Serbia's chances of joining the EU and would inhibit Bosnia and possibly Kosovo. If Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro or Croatia get involved it could also endanger their aspirations. If they don't get involved it would mean the surrounding of Serbia by the EU.

This could increase the demand for a centralized European defense based around the EU and lead to more engagement with former Soviet States. In the U.S. it would lead to a greater focus on Russia and a shift away from China in the area of national defense.

Turkey and A Middle Eastern War

Turkey's actions in the following weeks and months may be one of the most important developments in Middle Eastern affairs and could have global consequences. The problem with Turkey comes from the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK. There is also concern about a referendum on Kirkuk's incorporation into the Kurdish Regional Government.

In the Qandil mountains of Northern Iraq the PKK operates bases and supports attacks inside Southeastern Turkey. In spite of this and being labeled as a terrorist organization by the United States, the PKK is allowed to thrive in Northern Iraq. This has led to calls within the military and the government for an incursion. Turkey has been repeatedly carrying out attacks in Northern Iraq and has built up its troops along the border. Turkey's Prime Minister has said that a Turkish incursion will likely only be made after the July 22 elections.

A Turkish invasion would have a serious effect on Middle East relations and the situation in Iraq. Such an invasion is likely to be backed by Iran with force, who have also been launching attacks against PJAK, a branch of the PKK. Turkey and Iran's relations were recently exemplified with a pipeline deal between the two countries, which drew considerable U.S. ire. Given a joint Turkish-Iranian security arrangement it is not unlikely that the two countries will decide to launch a joint operation into Iraq.

Iran invading Northern Iraq alongside Turkey would have serious complications both for U.S. relations and the rest of the Middle East. An Iranian invasion could be used as a justification for U.S. attacks inside Iran. Iran has promised to retaliate with 600 missiles against Israel. To prevent a retaliation Israel may decide to launch a mutli-pronged attack, targeting Hamas, Syria, and Hezbollah forces.

Israel has written plans for an invasion of the Gaza Strip in the event of a war with Iran. Such an invasion will probably be conducted jointly between Fatah militants and the IDF. The IDF's aim will not be to take control of Gaza itself, but allow Fatah to consolidate control over all the Palestinian territories and pave the way for a peace agreement between the two parties and ultimately peace with many of its Arab neighbors.

Hezbollah and its allies have recently considered setting up a second government to cover mainly the Bekaa Valley and Southern Lebanon. With some 10,000 highly-experienced fighters and the support of Lebanon's primarily Shiite army, which has itself clashed with Israeli forces, Hezbollah's allies will be in a perfect position to stage a coup against the Western-backed government in Lebanon and begin a campaign against Israel. This government would take elements of all the major ethnic groups of Lebanon. Such a united government, together with Syria, could be turned against Israel to great effect in conjunction with attacks by Hamas.

Syria has already threatened to launch resistance operations against Israel in the Golan Heights and is reported to be building and purchasing more missiles in preparation for a war against Israel. The IDF is already concerned about the possibility of such a conflict erupting and claims to be ready for an all-out war with Syria. A conflict of this scale would devastate Israel's economy and seriously damage all three countries. U.N. forces would also end up in the line of fire in Lebanon and Syria. Since Syria and Lebanon's goals are limited they will probably succeed, though it is likely Hamas' government in Gaza will fall and be replaced by a Fatah-aligned government.

In Iraq, the Turkish invasion may lead to the stabilization of Iraq, rather than the destabilization of Iraq often predicted. Kurdish peshmerga forces have been lining up along the border of Turkey in preparation for an invasion. Moqtada al-Sadr has promised to defend the Kurds in the event of a Turkish attack. In a joint Turkish-Iranian invasion al-Sadr supporting the Kurds and his forces fighting alongside them would likely paint a stark comparison to Maliki's reaction, who would probably try to avoid a conflict with Iran and Turkey or claim Iraqi security forces are tied down.

Al-Sadr would become a symbol of nationalism and opposition to imperialism, in contrast to the ruling Maliki government. What's more al-Sadr would gain the support of Kurds by pledging his support for them against Turkey. This, in addition to his ties with Sunni tribal leaders, could lead to a true unity government in Iraq, pulling together Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Interestingly enough, these same Sunni tribal leaders are allied with the U.S. against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Sadr's meeting with Sistani could be more a sign of solidarity with the ayatollah, intended to consolidate his religious position and unify the two major Shiite leaders politically.

By uniting the Shiites in Iraq and bringing them together with the Sunnis and Kurds, al-Sadr is forging a movement to oppose the Maliki government. Such a movement would bring together two major military forces in Iraq, the Kurdish peshmergas and the Mahdi Army. Together with the Iraqi security forces under the current government and Sunni tribal militias, al-Sadr could have a military of 300,000 well-trained troops to secure the country and hold down other insurgent forces.

The reverberations of an invasion for Turkey's relations with the U.S. would be extravagant. Turkey fighting alongside Iran would put Turkey's loyalty into question and limit their usefulness as a Middle East ally. The damage has already been done in some part with Turkey saying U.S. weapons have ended up in the hands of the PKK. A resolution on recognizing the Armenian Genocide is said to have a majority in the House and a similar resolution is being looked at in the Senate, though not yet in a majority. A recognition by the U.S. could lead to a similar deterioration in ties like between France and Turkey.

A growing possibility of a Russo-Turkish axis will be made more likely in the event of a Turkish invasion. Such an alignment would likely include Iran, a Hezbollah-led Lebanon, and Syria in the Middle East with Palestine being turned into an Israeli ally. Peace between Israel and Palestine will mean peace with many Arabian peninsula nations, Egypt, and Jordan and put Israel in a Western-backed alliance against Iran's allies. Iraq will serve as a buffer state and be part of an ongoing tug-of-war between the Western-backed alliance and the Iranian-backed leaders. Russia will back Iran and Turkey in the Middle East in order to offset the United States and have a foothold in the Middle East.

The events from Kosovo and Northern Iraq are separately very bad situations, but together they pose the threat to completely shift our current alliances and force a re-evaluation of American policy.