Next Battleground for resistance to U.S. in Honduras

June 28 in Honduras President Manuel Zelaya is planning to hold a consultative referendum on whether to place a measure calling for a Constituent Assembly to change the Constitution on the November ballot. Zelaya is doing this over the objections of his own party, the Supreme Court, and military. Opposition from the head of the military led to Zelaya moving to relieve him. At the same time the Congress has launched an investigation into his mental state which could find him unfit to rule. The result would be the president of Congress, Roberto Micheletti, taking the Presidency. Despite being from Zelaya's own part he has been one of the major critics of Zelaya's efforts.

However such efforts could rile his supporters who have already shown considerable resistance to the present system going so far as to go to an Air Force base where ballots were being held for destruction to retrieve them and distribute them to polling stations. Should Zelaya be removed through essentially a legal coup popular resistance could emerge to the action potentially resulting in conflicts with the military.

People have been warned not to vote in the referendum because they could be attacked by Zelaya supporters. The Micheletti claimed Zelaya's supporters might assassinate him. All of this heightens tension in preparation for the referendum and there exists a risk that military forces will block people from voting resulting with battles in the streets.

Potential consequences of these developments are considerable. Should Zelaya be found unfit to rule by Congress he is likely to ignore the ruling and use his supporters to shield him from forcible removal. If the security forces press through supporters violently to foricbly remove Zelaya it would likely result in mass unrest or even civil war. This could open up a much bigger can of worms for the region.

Under Zelaya Honduras has joined the Bolivarian Alliance for the People of Our America which includes the nations of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba and several small caribbean nations. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has promised to support Zelaya together with his allies in any way they could. Of most immediate consequence would be Nicaragua which shares its northern border with Honduras. Nicaragua could be used as a passageway for weapons from Cuba or Venezuela to support a resistance to any military-imposed government. Should the situation escalate further all-out war is a distinc possibility.

That scenario could involve a very short conflict involving an invasion from Nicaragua by ALBA military forces especially Venezuelan forces. One major risk is that the U.S. intervenes in support of the Honduran government through direct military force or a blockade. In the event U.S. forces are deployed in Honduras and come into conflict with ALBA military forces further escalations become possible with Russia and/or Brazil moving to warn off the U.S. from intervention.

Developments in Honduras are further evidence of a growing trend involving conflict between American-backed forces and Russian-backed leftists in Latin America. September 2008's unrest in Bolivia and the Colombian strike which nearly sparked a war Ecuador and Venezuela in March of the same year indicate more events are likely to occur in the future.