New Nagorno-Karabakh War on the Horizon

On June 26, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev declared Azerbaijan's military was ready to "restore its territorial integrity" at any moment. Aliyev called the ongoing peace talks "fruitless" and that his left only the military option. He further argued that Azerbaijan has the "sovereign right" to retake Nagorno-Karabakh with force if Armenia doesn't show more flexibility in negotations.

While analysts claim his remarks are meant to rally nationalist support recent military exercises could be part of preparations for a military incursion. In particular the fact the war games were called the "Restoration of the Territorial Integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan" suggests it may be in preparation for an actual military intervention. The key determining factor could be talks in Russia mid-July on a peace deal. The convergence of these events are somewhat opposed to his comments merely being rhetoric. Kosovo's independence and the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have also put additional pressure on Azerbaijan.

A conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh also has potential to spread into Georgia where recent protests by ethnic Armenians in Javakheti led to clashes with police. A speaker of the Georgian parliament suggested Russia could provoke a scenario like Nagorno-Karabakh in the region.

Russian military exercises ending in early July could be a sign of preparations for such conflict. The exercises called KavKaz 2009 would involve the Black Sea Fleet, North Caucasian forces, and critically the Caspian Flotilla. While involvement of the Black Sea and South Ossetian and Abkhaz forces indicate it most likely involve, but the Caspian Flotilla's involvement suggests the conflict entails more than a conflict with Georgia. It most likely means a conflict with Azerbaijan. This could mean Russia is preparing for a scenario where a new conflict erupts with Georgia probably following an Azeri invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh.

A U.S. military scenario in 2006 involving the deployment of U.S. military forces to prevent an invasion of Azerbaijan by a third country, most likely Russia, could be realized with Armenia being a member of the CSTO. Such a development would erase what little progress has been made in U.S.-Russian relations.