Honduras edging to the brink

On July 2 Manuel Zelaya is planning to return to Honduras in the face of warnings from the post-coup government that he would be arrested immediately. Zelaya will be accompanies by the head of the Organization of American States as well as several Latin American Presidents including Rafael Correa of Ecuador, a member of the leftist regional organization ALBA founded by Hugo Chavez. The exact circumstances of his arrival are unknown though it is likely he will be encircled by his supporters and together with his escort of international leaders any attempt to use the military to arrest him will be dangerous.

While the coup leaders are sending representatives to Washington D.C. for talks there is no guarantee a resolution will be reached. Zelaya is certain to refuse anything short of a reinstatement and his opponents may not be too anxious to see him back in power. Without a resolution by the time Zelaya arrives the stage will be set for a more serious escalation of the crisis.

In anticipation of developments regarding Zelaya's arrival and likely in reaction to ongoing protests throughout the country the government has extended a curfew by three days. Continuing restrictions are likely only to inflame current protests, which on Monday in the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa were violently dispersed with two dead and 60 injured according to some reports. In spite of this protests in the capital continue to build reaching 10,000 people with protests around the country. Union leaders supporting Zelaya have also called a national strike which could stokes tensions even further.

Another development that could send the situation in Honduras spiraling out of control is the reported rejection of the current government's authority by two military battalions. Of particular importance is the presence of these battalions in the coastal state of Atlantida with one of them stationed in the second-largest city in Honduras. With those forces in control it provides Zelaya a potential safe haven in the country upon his return. It's position on the Caribbean side provides additional strategic benefits as well in the event of war. While Nicaragua's border is considerably closer to the capital being able to launch an offensive from the coastline would make resistance to an invasion more difficult especially with some Honduran forces backing them.