Venezuela threatens intervention in Honduras

The Honduran Congress has appointed the successor for deposed President Manuel Zelaya after the Congress unanimously voted to remove Zelaya. In spite of this Zelaya is insisting he will not give up in trying to regain his position. He is not alone in his support as Venezuela as well as most of the world is backing his return to power. Even privately U.S. officials are saying they recognize Zelaya as president. The strength of his support is a different matter. The nature of U.S. comments suggests support is measured and potentially fragile. However support from Zelaya's leftist allies in Latin America is much stronger.

In particular Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has said his country's military is on full alert and warns they will use military force if their ambassador is "kidnapped" or killed. He has also pledged to go to war if the Venezuelan embassy is violated. Even further he has pledged to remove any government sworn in as a result of the coup. While straying from the fiery rhetoric Ecuador is also warning that they will go to war if their ambassador or those of their allies were threatened. There have already been claims that the ambassadors of Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela were briefly taken by security forces and that the Venezuelan ambassador was beaten then left on the side of a road.

An extraordinary meeting of the Bolivarian Alliance for the People of our America, known as ALBA, was called in Managua, Nicaragua. Zelaya has reportedly been flown from Costa Rica, where Honduran troops exiled him, by a Venezuelan aircraft to participate in the meeting. Potential actions from the meeting could be minor like a condemnation or more serious like an effort to restore Zelaya by force.

If such a decision is not reached there a potential escalation of the situation within Honduras is a another possible justification. Protesters have clashed with security forces near the presidential palace, been setting up barricades, and blocking roads. Groups of young men, many armed with metal pipes or chains, have been burning tires and newspaper stands as well as throwing rocks at cars. Protesters said they were willing to fight and die in their resistance to the coup. In at least one case a leftist leader is said to have been killed as soldiers attempted to detain him. Any significant unrest or crackdown by military forces could be used as pretext for military intervention by Zelaya's backers.

A risk here is that U.S. troops stationed in Honduras at Soto Cano Air Base will be dragged into the conflict. Despite publicly opposing the coup and privately calling for Zelaya's reinstatement allegations have been raised about the connections between the coup leaders and the U.S. In particular is the fact the two main military fixtures in the coup studied at the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation or School of the Americas. Further the U.S. is unlikely to support Zelaya being reinstated through force by Chavez and his allies. The most likely result from such an action would be reforms similar to those implemented by Chavez.

Any attack into Honduras could bring U.S. military forces into the picture escalating such a conflict even further.