Drums of war grow louder in East Africa

Moves towards peace between Chad and Sudan appear to have collapsed following a renewed offensive by Chadian rebels opposed to the government of Idriss Deby. While the attack was halted, Chad's government is concerned they will attempt another attack and is blaming Sudan for the Chadian rebel assault. The government of Chad has already launched several cross-border attacks into Sudan in an attempt to stop the rebel. Chad is now building troops on its border and says it intends to launch an offensive soon into Sudanese territory to prevent a renewed attack by the rebels.

Sudan is warning Chad that any Chadian troops which move into Sudanese territory will be "destroyed" by Sudanese forces. While the forces of Sudan's military are much stronger a conflict with Chad has the potential to bring in France and the EU in support which could escalate further with an outbreak of violence in South Sudan.

Nearby the Western-backed government in Somalia is at risk of collapse as Al-Shabab and other Islamist militants take large swathes of territory. Militants have launched a major attack on Mogadishu and have managed to secure most of the city. All that remains outside the control of Shabab is the center of the city containing government buildings and the port. These areas are secured not only by militias but the 4,000 African Union troops sent in as peacekeepers. Though fighting has died down in the capital the militants appear to be tightening the noose around the nascent government.

Shabab and its allies have seized two key towns north of the capital. Jowhar and Mahaday both lie along roads key to maintaing ties between governments forces in Mogadishu and areas controlled by allied militias in Central Somalia. With their significant presence in Mogadishu already established and the government choked off from potential support up north the Shabab and its allies can move to take the remaining parts of the capital and topple the government. To prevent this from happening East African nations are calling for the UN to enforce a sea and air blockade of insurgent-run cities and regions.

If efforts to prop up the transitional government fail and the country is taken over by Islamist militants potential for further violence remains. Aside from possible international intervention other potential civil conflicts could emerge. Puntland officials are warning the pirates based out of the Somali region could become the next warlords and build up their own armies. If Shabab is able to topple the government in Mogadishu and establish control of Southern Somalia, the Puntland region would be their likely next target where warlords could be potential allies of either side or third parties in the conflict.

After falling a second time to Islamists its possible no major challenges will emerge to their power and a Taliban-style government will impose order in the region. Such a government would also be likely to shelter foreign fighters like al-Qaeda allowing them to build their own strength.