Pakistan moving towards Civil War

In just a few short days members of Pakistan's opposition plan to start a march intended to go from Karachi to Islamabad. This march is meant to protest the current government's failure to reinstate the judge dismissed by Musharraf in 2007. The leader of the opposition, Nawaz Sharif, has been banned from contesting elections and is likely to fuel the protests. In addition Pakistan's precarious economic and security situation will be another source of protest. Some are expecting hundreds of thousands of protesters to participate. In Punjab the provincial government has banned all protests as well as brining in paramilitary forces with the government saying regular military forces could be called in to deal with protesters. At the same time reports are coming in of the head of the armed forces warning President Zardari to resolve the crisis before March 16th, the day the march concludes in Islamabad inciting fears of a military coup.

Such a crisis as hundreds of thousands of people confronting military troops in the streets could easily spiral out of control resulting in mass unrest. Another factor contributing to this potential for instability is the Taliban which continues to increase its power. Several rival Taliban groups have joined forces and pledged to defend each other from attacks. The numerous groups control a swath of territory across the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas and the Northwest Frontier Province. Their control has also been effectively expanded with the concession by the Pakistani government to allow sharia law in the Swat Valley after a military operation failed to defeat Taliban forces there.

Risk to the rest of Pakistan has gradually increased as well with an attack on a police checkpoint in Punjab province a possible sign of the conflict expanding into larger Pakistani provinces. Baitullah Mahsud, the leader of a Pakistani Taliban group, warned his group would expand actions to Punjab and Sindh province if the government continued conducting operations in the northwest. In Sindh there are reports the Taliban is capable of widening the conflict all the way to the coast. A police reports on the Taliban indicated a large presence in the city of Karachi with stockpiles of weapons warning the Taliban could take the city hostage at a moment's notice. Civil unrest resulting from the ongoing political crisis could serve as the perfect backdrop for the Taliban to make such a big move. Whether they could only cause a Mumbai-style attack or launch a full-on uprising in the city is uncertain though it would likely be somewhere in between given the larger numbers of Taliban forces in the city and the higher levels of support.

Karachi is not the only city of notable concern. Peshawar is the capital of the Northwest Frontier Province and has been a frequent source of concern for the Pakistani government with rising fears the Taliban are poised to seize the city. City residents have suffered harassment from Taliban and their sympathizers while trucks delivering supplies to U.S. forces in Afghanistan have come under increasinly intensive attacks. Police and paramilitary forces come under frequent attack in and around the city as well as high-level political officials. With the Taliban becoming more united in the northwest and receiving larger safe havens like the Swat Valley their ability to take the provincial capital increases every day. Were the Taliban to succeed in taking the city it is likely the entire province would soon follow and put the Taliban on the doorstep of Islamabad. Were this coordinated with aggressive actions in Punjab and a seizure of Karachi while the central government is distracted by large civil unrest from the political opposition a full-on civil war in Pakistan would become highly likely.