Russo-Georgian War ending, fallout begins

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev halted operations against Georgia early on Tuesday after Russia succeeded in expelling Georgian forces from South Ossetia and Abkhazia succeeded in expelling them from the Kodori Gorge. With both breakaway regions under Russian control it seems Russia has stepped away from any push further into Georgia. While the conflict has subsided the repercussion of the war will be felt for much longer. The first sign of this was Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to withdraw Georgia from the Commonwealth of Independent States and declare Abkhazia and South Ossetia as occupied territory with Russian forces being labeled occupiers.

This greatly limits the chances Georgia will accept the continued presence of Russian force in the territories though signals from Moscow indicate they not only intend to maintain their presence there but they are even planning to bar Georgia as much from the territories as possible. Russia has added demands for a demilitarized zone around the separatist republics to a French proposal which on top of an aspect of the French proposal basically sends Georgian troops out of the breakaway republics for good. This likely will mean the effective annexation of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is seen even further by the growing calls from Russian politicians for recognition of their independence.

Russia is actually openly calling for Georgia to leave South Ossetia permanently and sign an agreement pledging not to use force against the separatist republics as conditions for peace. With Russia's position considerably strengthened to the point where annexation seems imminent, indeed a move by the Duma and Federal Council to recognize them could come as soon they come back into session, though Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister has said recognition would be "premature" while the crisis is still unresolved. However, it is unlikely the Russian government would not act accordingly if the Russian legislature recognized the republics.

The war with Georgia may also have serious consequences for Russia's involvement in Western institutions with talks of pushing Russia out of the G8, and denying them membership in the World Trade Organization and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. On top of this joint Russia-NATO exercises scheduled for Friday could be canceled in response.

At the same time the conflict in Georgia could drive forward other measures which are certain to aggravate relations with Russia even further. One such situation exists with Poland which had demanded greater military cooperation with the United States in exchange for placing elements of a missile defense system in the country. Now the United States, previously reluctant to go along, seems to be moving towards satisfying Polish demands for expanded military ties. It could also push the Czech Republic into accepting the radar out of fear of Russia's military expansion. However, such actions would only seem to confirm Russian suspicions the missile defense system was targeted against them all along.

Russia has threatened to respond to the deployment of a missile defense system by deploying ballistic missiles and strategic bombers in Belarus, though saying there were no intentions of deploying nuclear weapons. However the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, on Poland's northern border, didn't seem to be ruled out. Other reports suggested Russia could send nuclear bombers into Cuba either to be based there or simply have overflights in the nation's airspace. Several officials in Russia have also expressed support for establishing a military presence or defense alliance with Cuba.

Also while Georgia's NATO membership aspirations have been a major point of contention between Russia and Georgia the conflict between the two countries has not impacted that process. In fact, it is possible Georgia's membership will be fast-tracked to prevent an additional Russian attack on the country. The lack of intervention by the U.S. also makes it more likely it will intervene in the future. Should there be a massive attack on Ukraine or a conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, risking to bring in Russia, the United States may feel more compelled to take action in order to show it will support pro-Western allies in the region.

Regardless of the outcome it is likely Russia has now become a major issue in American politics and foreign policy, both falling on the side of deteriorating relations which have the potential to foment greater conflict in the future.