Reviving the Kosovo precedent

Abkhazia and South Ossetia have officially appealed to Russia for recognition and major rallies were organized in both separatist republics. The rally in South Ossetia was even followed by a performance by St Petersburg’s Marinsky Orchestra, led by conductor Valery Gergiev, a major conductor with the London Philharmonic. The rally in Abkhazia was reported to include up to 50,000 people, potentially as much as a third of their population though this suggests some exaggeration. All the same with such a massive outpouring of support it is likely it will be taken as an indicator of how the people in Abkhazia feel about independence and influence an upcoming legislative session and the opinion of the Russian president.

One lingering question on such a move for independence is how other countries will react. Russia likely doesn't want to be the only country to recognize the breakaway states putting them in a Northern Cyprus-style situation. However, potential support could come from Russian allies. Some of those allies would be in the CSTO, including Belarus whose recognition would be needed to bring Abkhazia into the Union of Russia and Belarus as several reports suggest will ultimately be the plan for eventually merging it with Russia with South Ossetia either opting for the same path or moving immediately to reunify with North Ossetia in the Russian Federation.

Several countries have shown a rather vigorous line in support of Russia, which could lead to them recognizing the breakaway republics. In the case of Cuba President Raul Castro attacked Georgia for its invasion of South Ossetia and defended Russia's action. In addition Castro suggested Georgia has no legitimate claim to South Ossetia and even said the republic was historically a part of Russia. This suggests Cuban recognition could be a possibility. Also in Latin America Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said his country "stands with Russia" on the conflict and has been making vigorous moves to woo Russia. This could mean at least two other countries willing to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Chavez could bring on his other allies in the region like Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua.

Another possible supporter could be found with Syria. The Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has made a recent overture to Russia in the hopes of getting better weapons. Assad noted Israeli support for Georgia and stated Syria's strong support for Russia in the conflict. Should Russia recognize the breakaway states Syria may follow suit as a sign of support for Russia. With more than one state recognizing the republics it could push other countries to join as well, particularly in the Former Soviet Union. One interesting country to look at would be Armenia. They have strong ties with Russia, but also have well-established ties with the West and Georgia, in fact most evacuations from Georgia went through Armenia. Armenia may not want to lose their ties with Georgia and the West, but at the same time want to support Russia. Armenia could decide to recognize the breakaway republics and Kosovo to try and satisfy both sides. The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to be raised either during such recognition discussions or after which will be sure to aggravate ties with Azerbaijan. How Azerbaijan would react to Armenia's decision could determine if Nagorno-Karabakh is the next frozen conflict to thaw.

In the end, should Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia it will likely bring back the fear of the Kosovo precedent and increase the chances of it spreading.