In and around Gori Russian troops were removing weapons from the area in an effort to create a demilitarized zone. In Poti Russian troops have reportedly entered the city several times to blow up ships of the Georgian navy and coast guard. One case involved Russian troops, apparently dressed as peacekeepers, seizing a military outpost near the port and removing equipment. Russuan troops have also been reportedly destroying airfields and army facilities, as well as roads. They were also reported to have destroyed an important rail bridge to Tblisi, though it was denied by Russian officials. Russian military officials do, however, acknowledge the continuing operations against Georgia are aimed at weakening the Georgian military so as to prevent further attacks against Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
By eliminating most of Georgia's military infrastructure and destroying much of their weaponry, or removing it, Russia will insure that for the next few months Georgia will be unable to respond to Russian actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia allowing them to enforce a status settlement. Abkhazia has already grown defiant of Georgia by declaring they will not negotiate with Georgia without recognition. Russia has also become a more adamant backer of the breakaway states, even saying they will not recognize Georgia's territorial integrity. President Dmitry Medvedev has called for Abkhazia and South Ossetia to decide on whether to secede, possibly signaling another referendum on
independence. A new referendum, most likely in favor of independence, could then be followed by Russian recognition and recognition from other Russian allies.However, another dispute between Georgia and Abkhazia is emerging over territorial boundaries. Abkhaz forces pushed to the Inguri River bridge and planted a flag, claiming the river was their natural border. To reinforce their claim Abkhaz troops, backed by Russian forces, seized 13 Georgian villages and a power station along the river. Georgia officials described the push as a shift of Abkhazia's administrative borders. The likely aim of these post-truce operations is to force a settlement where Abkhazia and South Ossetia are able to gain independence while EU monitors in a demilitarized zone along the borders of the territories prevent any Georgian military response. Abkhazia's deployment along the Inguri River also allows them to annex a previously undisputed part of Georgian territory.
The situation in Georgia has begun to impact another frozen conflict in Transnistria. In response to the conflict in Georgia the Transnistria government has broke off its ties with Moldova. However, Russia would have more difficulties dealing with Transnistria as Romania's president has said "Transnistria is not Ossetia" suggesting they may rush to Moldova's aid in the event of Russian attack. Not only could Russia face the unappealing prospect of fighting a NATO nation, Transnistria is cut off from the sea by Ukraine with all air access going through Ukraine or Romania. Neither are going to allow Russia to pass through in order to attack Moldova. However, Russia can solve this problem by appealing to separatists in Ukraine.
Since the conflict in Georgia Ukraine has become increasingly confrontational with Russia. The President of Ukraine issued a unilateral decree in response to the conflict in Georgia saying Russian ships have to inform Ukraine of their movements a day in advance and if they didn't the Foriegn Ministry could ask them to leave and the decree would also require Russia to inform Ukraine of
their ships return 10 working days beforehand. While Ukraine has said it will "do everything" to insure the decree is implemented, it is unlikely they would resort to military force. However, the action is likely to inflame tensions with Russia as will Ukraine's offer to include their early warning systems, originally rented by Russia, in the NATO missile defense system.Russia could solve its dispute over Sevastopol and provide a direct link to Transnistria by fomenting a pro-Russian separatist rebellion. One possible spark for this could be Ukraine being offered a Membership Action Plan for NATO. Such a rebellion would probably involve Eastern and southern Ukraine, roughly corresponding to Novorossiya or New Russia. A separatist state formed in those areas of Ukraine could adopt the name of Novorossiya. Russia could then use this separatist state, possibly annexing the region, to move into Transnistria. Moldova would not be able to last against the Russian military and could give up the breakaway state without a fight. Russia could then merge it with the Ukrainian breakaway state and either bring that state into the Russian Federation or the Union of Russia and Belarus.
The attack on Georgia has also pushed Poland and the U.S. into reaching an agreement on missile defense. Russia has already responded angrily with a Russian general threatening Poland would be a first priority target in the event of war between the U.S. and Russia suggesting they could even come under nuclear attack for housing the missile system. The U.S. has sent a warning of its own to Russia with the deployment of military forces in a humanitarian mission to Georgia.
While a small show of force it suggests future conflicts in the region will invite heavier American intervention.
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