following the conflict with Georgia and Dmitry Medvedev has made it clear Russia would guarantee whatever decision is reached by the people of the republics. Pro-independence demonstrations set for today are likely meant to show the popular support for independence and, at least in the case of South Ossetia, unification with Russia. Medvedev would argue that Georgia has lost a right to rule the region and that the government and people have made clear their desire, likely adding in the previous referendums. One manner in which Russia seeks to defend its actions will almost certainly be invoking Kosovo as a precedent. Of course, this risks inflaming the other frozen conflicts in the region and creating the very precedent Russia warned about before.There is also one other angle to this action as stated by the Abkhaz Foreign Minister:
Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics will provide for establishing bilateral relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, concluding treaties on military cooperation without taking account of third-party countries, and develop economic contacts basing on the legitimate law.This could effectively mean the basing of Russian troops being provided for under agreement with the two republics. It would also allow Russia to stick to its pledge to pull out all but 500 troops from Georgia by arguing the two republics are no longer part of Georgia and therefore they are not violating any agreement. It is likely then that these 500 troops would be intended for a buffer zone being set up around both republics. This buffer zone also includes a no-fly zone for all non-Russian aircraft.
At the same time the U.S. would be provided with additional reason to re-arm Georgia which is already sparking a reaction from Russia. Russia is threatening not only to cancel its military relationship and considerably chill relations with the U.S. and NATO over these efforts, but is also warning it may shift its policy on Iran. That shift could involve removing its support for further sanctions, increasing arms sales to Iran, and potentially down the line inviting it to join the CSTO or some other form of collective defense as a way of deflecting an attack from the U.S. or Israel.
The conflict in Georgia is also beginning to have a serious impact on the political situation in Ukraine. President Yushchenko is accusing Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of treason for allegedly moderating her response to the conflict in Georgia in exchange for Russia's support in the 2010 presidential election against Yushchenko. If Yushchenko goes so far as to charge Tymoshenko with treason it would likely spark a major political crisis as it could mean her
removal as Prime Minister. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are the two former leaders of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and while they have had disputes in the past a move to have Tymoshenko tried for treason, when she poses the greatest political threat to the president, would be certain to spark mass protests by her supporters. It would also likely bring out pro-Russian protests that would quickly turn to protests against not only Yushchenko, but also NATO membership and the government's increasing moves towards the West.How Yushchenko responds to this would be the deciding factor in the later development of events. During the crisis in 2007 Yushchenko resorted to using the security forces but nearly came into conflict with other Ukrainian security forces. If Yushchenko uses security forces against pro-Russian protests, potentially arguing it's a Russian-backed coup attempt or Russian-backed separatist action, the backlash would be considerable. An outbreak of unrest by Russian sympathizers in the East and South supported by pro-Russian security forces could send Ukraine spiraling into a civil war. One area which would likely have massive protests or unrest sparked by pro-Russian groups would be in Crimea. Recent reports suggest Russia might be distributing passports in Sevastopol where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based and could potentially be getting distributed in the Crimea as well.
In such an event of unrest and conflict in the Crimea, which would likely spread to other parts of Ukraine, Russia could argue for it's intervention in the region to protect Russian citizens and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. If Yushchenko begins carrying out a violent crackdown on pro-Russian unrest it could serve to delegitimize him in the West. Moreover if this unrest is a result of him removing Tymoshenko for alleged treason it would further damage his image making Western intervention less likely. Russia would thus be able to stoke a pro-Russian separatist movement in Southern and Eastern Ukraine to justify massive intervention and also serve to greatly weaken Ukraine's ability to resist as it would leave Ukraine's military force divided.
Such a development would allow Russia to divide Ukraine in half and reduce it to a helpless shell of a nation with the pro-Russian half splitting off an unifying with Russia. Together with the removal and annexation of the breakaway territories in Georgia the move would effectively eliminate the threat of NATO challenging Russia in the Black Sea and allowing it to maintain its presence there indefinitely and even increase it.
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