Russia invades Georgia proper

Russian troops have now advanced from South Ossetia into Gori, taking control of the city. They have also advanced from Abkhazia to take Zugdidi and several other Georgian cities. Russia has reportedly pulled out of one of the towns taken in the new offensive. Georgian troops have also pulled back from Gori intending to hold Mtskheta which lies 15 miles from Tblisi.

Georgia fears Russia may be intending to attack and take the capital, ultimately to overthrow the government of Mikheil Saakashvili. This view about Russia's objective treceived significant support after the U.S. ambassador to the UN revealed a secret communication between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov during a Security Council meeting which has Lavrov calling for Saakashvili to "go" meaning be removed from power.

In addition to a possible advance on the capital Russia is also said to be planning an offensive against the Russian port of Poti. Poti is one of Georgia's two major Black Sea ports along with Batumi. At the same time Russia was expanding the bombing campaign against Georgia with as many as 50 Russian bombers operating Georgian airspace. Russia's fighters and bomber not only vastly outnumber the Georgian air force but are also far more advanced with the best Georgian aircraft being the Su-25 attack aircraft of which Georgia only has a few dozen. Should Russia decide to it could destroy much of Georgia's air force. The U.S. was also returning Georgian troops from Iraq who have now moved near areas held by Russian forces preparing for either a counter-offensive to block further Russian advances.

At the same time Ukraine is saying it may bar Russian ships which had gone from the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea. Ukraine is pressuring Russia to agree to a limitation on the use of force by Russian ships based in Crimea. For now Russia is basing the ships engaged in Georgia at the Russian port of Novorossiisk. However, it is unlikely Russia would let a barring of Russian ships from Crimea pass by unanswered though they would likely wait to act until they have dealt with Georgia. One possible option is to instigate a rebellion by pro-Russian Crimeans.

American Vice President Dick Cheney is warning Russia its actions in Georgia will not go unanswered and will seriously harm U.S.-Russian relations. Already there is talk of U.S. intervention. Any such intervention is likely to be meant as a means to prevent the toppling of Georgia's government and could involve the deployment of U.S. naval ships in the Black Sea as well as a limited deployment of American troops most likely in Tblisi. The implication being that any attempt to topple Georgia's government would lead Russia into conflict with the United States.

At the same time the conflict is becoming a major issue in the American presidential campaign. Barack Obama is still vacationing in Hawaii, which is likely to make him appear irresponsible in a time of crisis, while at the same time is heavily emphasizing diplomacy and negotiations with Russia rather than toughness. Their criticism of McCain is linking him to a lobbyist for the Georgian government, a political attack unlikely to gain significant traction. McCain is issuing a very tough response to the attack and he has in the past called for Russia to be expelled from the G8. McCain will likely use this to press his tougher foreign policy including his plan for a Community of Democracies to offset Russian and Chinese obstruction in the UN, his plan to increase considerably the size of the U.S. army, and revamping the CIA to a level relative to the OSS.

It is likely McCain will attempt to paint Obama as a sort of Neville Chamberlain calling for peace and diplomacy in the wake of a dangerous aggressor. This could resonate with voters as the conflict escalates further. Should McCain win the Presidential election it will likely move U.S.-Russian relations up to a more confrontational level.