Iranian forces seize Iraqi oil field

Today the Iraqi government accused Iran of seizing an oil field in Iraqi territory. Though sporadic clashes have occurred before in this incident Iraq is saying that Iranians forces sent tank into the territory, erected their flag, and began digging trenches. Iraq has demanded that they leave though whether this could escalate into an armed confrontation depends on the support of the U.S. Any battle could result in escalations and lead to an all-out war. However, even if the situation is defused it provides a potential look into Iran's strategy should war erupt in the Middle East. While Iran's threats to block the Straits of Hormuz have been well-publicized the potential for Iran to seize Iraqi oil fields has not.

Other potential actions which could lead to a renewed war have arisen recently. The most obvious risk is an attack over Iran's nuclear program which came back into question as Obama was said to inform the Chinese that the U.S. could not hold back an Israeli attack indefinitely. Given numerous examples of Iran's program advancing in both enrichment and weaponization the more times passes the more inevitable an attack becomes.

Another risk emerged with the Abbas government in the West Bank threatening a unilateral declaration of independence. The Israeli government's response was that it would then annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Though they have backed away from this preferring to push for a Security Council vote, the potential for such a declaration could arise should the vote fail and discussions remain deadlocked. Indonesia expressly supported recognition of a unilateral declaration and it is likely other countries would as well. This possibility arose due to the unilateral declaration of Kosovo and later recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia. Though a declaration by itself may not cause such an event Israeli retaliation by annexing parts of the West Bank could invite other actors eventually including Iran.

Hamas has also stated what has long been expected in the event of a war with Iran. They declared that they will aid Iran if a war erupts. In this area Hamas has been improving their capabilities to prepare for such a war. Having learned from the war earlier this year Hamas is building up its weapons stockpile and improving its defensive infrastructure. Though far from being as capable as Hezbollah they are also acquiring missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv. Combined with Hezbollah's capabilities, a future war will see Tel Aviv hit from all directions.

The consequences as indicated by the developments in Iraq would be massive disruption of world oil supply.