Aliyev once more threatening war over Nagorno-Karabakh

While this is not the first time Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, has threatened to reclaimed the separatist state of Nagorno-Karabakh with force the rhetoric is more resolute. A few months ago he said talks were proving fruitless and that they plan for war, but there was a caveat:

The president added that it was Azerbaijan’s "sovereign right" to resort to force, if Armenia did not show more negotiating flexibility, Russia’s Regnum news agency reported.

This seems to talk only about negotiations needing to make some movement, but this is what he is saying now:

Aliyev said, “We are attending to this meeting as a part of our program. This meeting will decisive for the negotiations. We held several meetings this year but we could not achieve any results. If we cannot again achieve any results we will run out of hope.” Stressing that they may use the military option if they lose their hope about peaceful resolution of the conflict, Aliyev said that Azerbaijan should be ready for that option.

This seems far more definitive in that he is saying without an agreement on resolving the matter there will be a war. Some will say this is just to play into domestic consumption, but there is serious reason for doubt. The same thing was said of Putin's comments on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When he didn't immediately react to Kosovo's independence with recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia there were people claiming Putin was a paper tiger unwilling to back up his threats.

Azerbaijan is not likely to accept that anymore than Russia did. Even if they do not immediately react it is likely the foundations will be laid for a war sometime next year. Armenia is likely to react to any war with immediate recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence inflaming a war even further. Such a war could prove more explosive than the one in Georgia a year ago.

Key to its explosive potential is the reaction of Turkey. If Azerbaijan is the aggressor Turkey's reaction could be measured. Though the government would say Azerbaijan has the right to assert its territorial integrity it may also add that it is best to achieve this peacably. Fear of becoming entangled in a war with Russia is another major reason for them to not intervene.

Another key element is the reaction of the United States. In the previous year's war in Georgia the U.S. sat by as Russia sent troops perilously close to Tblisi. Indeed, Russia could have removed the government without challenge from the U.S. With President Obama's popularity flagging he may see this as an opportunity to distract the American public from domestic troubles. Moving soldiers quickly into Azerbaijan could be done under the pretext of preventing Russian intervention and expansion of the conflict. A scenario several years ago envisioned just such an event.

At any rate, a conflict will leave Russia as a threat in many minds.