North Korea declares "firing zone" in West Sea

Declaring the move to be a reaction to "reckless military provocative maneuvers by the warmongers in the South Korean military" North Korea has designated the disputed Northern Limit Line of the West Sea a peacetime naval firing zone and warned ships to avoid entering the area. If South Korean ships civilian or military enter the area North Korea has threatened to use artillery from coastal and island bases against them.

Earlier in the year President Lee Myung-Bak of South Korea authorized South Korean military forces to retaliate to any attack coming from such land-based weaponry. Then in November a brief naval skirmish broke out between a North Korean ship and South Korean naval forces. Though this battle heightened the risk it did not lead to a renewal of the Korean War. Two other skirmishes occurred years before but also did not result in a new war. However, the declaration that ships will be fired on by coastal or island-based weapons introduces a new complication.

Despite a series of battles breaking out between North Korea and South Korea, the worse situation being in 1968 when an assassination attempt was launched by North Korean commandos, with the commandos fighting with police and troops, and a U.S. ship came under attack. Another serious incident occurred in 1976 called Operation Paul Bunyan where an attempt to clear tree limbs obstructing the view of border guards saw large-scale military support. However, in every single major post-war incident there was not a direct act on North Korean territory by South Korean military forces. With the two orders issued by North Korea and South Korea such a scenario has become plausible. If North Korea keeps its promise and fires on South Korean ships they will then be free to retaliate. As this situation has not arisen before there is no definite way of knowing what will occur.

The most recent threat comes as President Barack Obama pursues diplomacy to try and bring North Korea back into the six-party talks on its nuclear weapons capability. South Korea's foreign minister has warned that failure to restart the talks by March could mean them ending entirely.

Complicating the situation even more is the reported worsening health of Kim Jong-Il. Having already suffered a stroke and kidney disease the North Korean leader is now said to be suffering laryngitis with forcing him to work every other day. Uncertainty over the leadership at the same time as a skirmish increases the chances of a more dire reaction by North Korea's military. The fact Kim Jong-Il has suffered from a stroke already makes this new sickness all the greater risk to his life. Kim Jong-Il's death would greatly upset the already dire geopolitical situation in the Korean peninsula.