Ukraine's government falls

The coalition between President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party and Yulia Tymoshenko's has been officially dissolved. This comes in the wake of accusations from Yushchenko that Tymoshenko was a betraying Ukraine to the Russians. Georgia's President, Mikheil Sakaashvili, even inserted his opinion saying he saw signs of meddling from Russia. The political crisis escalated when Tymoshenko joined with the Party of Regions to push through restrictions on Yushchenko's powers. Yushchenko went so far as to accuse the PM of trying to install a dictatorship and launching a coup. Tymoshenko herself belittled the situation:

"The government is going to work for a long time and is going to work successfully despite all these storms... Because this is a storm in a teacup."

A possibility in the crisis is the formation of a new coalition between Tymoshenko and various groups aligned with Russia and opposed to NATO membership, most notably the Party of Regions. Such a party would move Ukraine away from the West, but it may not end with this. Yushchenko is unlikely to abide a loss of his powers or formation of a government aligned more with Russia. Previous political crises have resulted in situation where security force have almost openly confronted each other and regions of Ukraine threatened secession. Such a situation could become even more likely in this event given the actions by Russia in Georgia and the issuing of Russian passports in Crimea.

This political crisis together with the Russia-Georgia war has led to a diplomatic confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. Both have banned several of their officials from traveling to either countryand Russia criticized Ukraine for supplying Georgia with weapons accusing Ukraine of "unfriendly" behavior towards Russia. Even further a Russian Rear-Admiral has said Russia will never leave the Russian port in Sevastopol in spite of an agreement to leave by 2017. Such sentiments share a great deal of support through Russia and there is considerable historical basis for taking the whole of Crimea as it was once part of Russia under the Soviet Union, but granted to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev. Similar arguments have been used to justify the action in Georgia.

Given the tendency for political crises in Ukraine to fall into chaos it is hard to predict how the current situation will end. Massive protests seem to be a certainty and should they become violent requiring the use of force to contain, the situation could spiral. If protesters battle in the streets of Sevastopol and Ukrainian forces act, Russia might use the unstable situation to justify taking the whole city or a part. How far Russia goes would depend on the stability of the situation. All-out civil war in Ukraine would probably lead to far greater intervention by Russia and half of Ukraine joining Russia.

At the very least recent events suggest Ukraine will ultimately not integrate into NATO and possibly become a client state even if it can avoid dismemberment.